Member Info for CaneToad

Yes, I noticed the Ince news - that's a shot across the bow for KGH who has followed a similar strategy or acquiring firms and running up debt. Just a year ago I was telling people that Ince couldn't afford the dividend and I was yelled down... but it's eerily similar here! One thing that differs is the depth of the pockets of DB who would be able to loan the firm money if they really needed it.

@Dartron: Most people who invest in AIM shares lose money; most people on these boards lose money or achieve a lower return than the index. Hence I never listen to advice from anybody on these boards... Good luck.

As I initially thought, there has been no change in buying volume; it's just a few small PI buys and from the institutional seller... I'll keep an eye on it and will most probably exit quickly.

@Dartron: "What a shame you didn't act on it. It has done 16% in 2 days."

Getting in at the absolute bottom or calling the level is a fools game, because it will only be apparent several days after. I watched this for several months and got close - and that's all that's important.

I already had a tiny position, but opened a larger tranche yesterday morning, with a suitable stop-loss of course. I'll exit if it drops back more than about 12.5%, so that the trade offers ~5*R. Getting individual trades right or wrong is unimportant - few on thes boards ever seem to ever realise that...

Re: the results video: I thought DB and the CFO came across well, with a clear strategy.

Yeah, it's starting to look tempting for a punt, with a suitably tight stop in case it resumes its freefall. After another look:

Bad: Volume is still low, there's very limited interest in the share
Good: RSI has ticked up a bit
Bad: It's forming a base, but there's no evidence of any momentum
Bad: Most listed law firms are similarly weak, e.g. DWF and GTLY
Bad: High debt

Conclusion: There's too little to go on and I'm continuing to stay out.

I think we can assume that the dividend will be rebased by 15-20% as in THRL, but even then it would be approaching 9%, which is attractive for new purchasers.

@SD235: "PS who is your stockbroker?"
Hargreaves Lansdown

@Mister_Short: "We might think it's well overdone, however there is a reason the institutions are not investing. Could it be the debt?"

I'm just guessing here, and I could be wrong, but are you short?

To be fair, the entire market is melting. It's not just KGH. It's a terrible bear market. They do seem to be following a similar path to Ince though, buying up miscellaneous firms, focussing on revenue - which is a totally meaningless quantity, compared to PROFIT and yes, they have an elevated level of debt. Where is the investor return?

On the other hand, you can argue that there's a great opportunity here if institutions and/or the CEO start buying again.

@NewKOTB: "Then you have SQZ , current SP ~215p with FAIR VALUE £11.93"

Does SimplyWallStreet have any notion of UK taxes? Does it know about the WFT?

From what I see, ADIG has been more-or-less declining since 2014. It has an exceptional track record of paying quarterly dividends, but the decline in the share price has eroded that, so it's been a poor investment over that time. Perhaps it will perform well if you manage to catch it right at the bottom of the cycle, but I think there will be lots of other places to invest at that time.

I continue to see sizable sales which look like institutional selling.

Definitely interesting, but no increase in volume, so most likely just some PIs.

I'm not sure about being 'played' - looks like BlackRock is reducing again.

The mkt cap of the company is now less than the amount that DB made by selling his shares back in Jan 2021!

You guys make claims but don't provide anything to back them up. e.g. you'd never heard of Ince, which is a nearly identical company. And you made ridiculous (misleading) claims that KGH was the biggest law firm in the country, which is complete nonsense. I pointed out it was actually the 68'th biggest firm.

I like the company and am invested here, but I think it's wise to be careful when it's dropped almost 50% in a couple of months. I look forward to hearing some genuine news on fundamentals or technicals from you guys + anything from short-sellers, who are also most welcome here.

Nobody knows where the bottom is, but some of us are guessing that it's lower than the current price, which is a reasonable guess, given the continued selling. FYI: not all law firm shares are dropping, e.g. Keystone. I don't think the current drop in KGH is anything whatsoever to do with the other AIM shares. It's simply because there's a large background seller in KGH and it's a very thinly traded share. Obviously it could explode if DB starts buying again.

Good luck!

The new facility is 5.69%
It's on the high side, but not ridiculous.
I've held these in both an ISA and SIPP and didn't get any tax taken out.

Question is - how low will it go? That's always a dangerous one to answer. The concern is the pattern starting to emerge in the rent collection, which was consistently 100% up until 2021, then dropped by a miniscule amount in 2021 and plunged to 91.8% in 2022. The golden question is what it will fall to in 2023? SOHO's largest tenant amounts for a whopping 30% of the rent and has been deemed to be 'non-compliant' by the regulator, who thinks they're unsustainable and vulnerable to financial problems. Like always there's lots of paranoia.

Nope - tide is still going out. Big seller still offloading. Replay of the Ince decline.