Member Info for CaneToad

I'm just hoping that they're not looking to buy any struggling stock brokers.
I'm guessing that an institution is reducing/selling their holding.

"Louis10 - be a good chap - add something of value or f@ck off !"

@Tony - as many here have said. You occasionally add some value, but this is NOT your channel... everybody here is welcome, whether they own 1 share or a million - long or short.

Please try and not directly insult random people that you've never met. IF YOU CAN?

@Dartron: "I have found various other stocks offering near 10% yield in other sectors"

Absolutely. It's easy in this environment to find stocks yielding 8-10%. I have dozens of them, many of them with investment grade credit ratings and years of dividend history. The problem is that most oil stocks have been smashed. Yes, there are few quirky oilers that are bucking the trend, but that's hardly relevant; it's always like that. For some strange reason, the supermajors have bucked the trend - figure!

I disagree that this is not a growth stock though. I think there's huge growth potential in the Canadian assets. It would be sheer madness for them to spend any more money in the NS though. Look at what's happened to HBR and SQZ. Investors are fleeing. The NS is uninvestable now. As soon as Labor get in power, they will remove the tax breaks and hike the WFT further.

I'm not a gambler, but I suspect that the sp will hit 20p within 3m, perhaps within 1m. Our fate is tied entirely to the oil/gas price. I hope this doesn't some people here who like to continually give these ridiculous promises that the sp is about to bounce back to 30p. Just look at the sector and it's completely obvious. It's unlikely to rise *sustainably* until the recession/covid fears are in the rear vision mirror.

"Sell down continues. Explain why oil up and we're down most of the times. "

Oil is currently up - yes, but it's on a hugely bearish trajectory; lower lows/lower highs. So is gas, which is at pre-Ukraine levels and still dropping. Most other small/mid-cap energy companies have been hit much harder than I3E. It was fairly easy to see that the excellent results and divi increase were only going to lead to a temporary increase here. We'll most likely need to see oil become bullish again in order to see a sustained rise here.

I am guessing that this is connected with the attempt to oust the chairman?

Anybody know why this stock is outperforming everything else in the sector? It's a great little company, but I'm surprised at the interest.

It does not look good that there are questions about the solvency of My Space and that they have significant rent arrears with SOHO? Aren't these the same issues raised in regard to HOME? I think there is the possibility that this could generate a short attack and further pressure on our share price. The company will have to come out with a statement regarding the solvency of our other operators or else the market will assume the worst.

The RNS smells like HOME shenanigans?

Fact: oil/gas companies - as a sector - peaked in mid June. With the exception of the large caps: shell, BP etc, almost all oil/gas companies have been dropping since then. I3E is a great, growing company, but it's unreasonable to think it's going to rise in this type of environment. The reason is very simply that oil itself has been downtrending over that time. I cannot think of any natural gas producers that have done well over that time, but that is partly to do with windfall taxes.

How has HBR's share price performed recently? I don't see much strength, even though it's doing a large buyback. the same goes for lots of other energy companies. How has SQZ been doing? How about some of the US natural gas plays?

Or time will come, but it's unlikely to be next week or next month.

ok @Tony - you're 100% right as always. All bow to the great Tony Norstom. God knows what we'd do without you.

FYI: PIPE is on a forward PE of just 2.3, while VET is on 3.1. Being 'cheap' is rarely enough or the share prices of those would be rising.

@Stas: "Secondly, have a look at the gas market, looking extremely buoyant and i3 are approx. 50% gas"

Do you hold shares in any of the Canadian natural gas producers, e.g. Birchcliff, Vermilion? BIR is nearly debt-free, highly profitable, recently declared a dividend, yielding 8%, has approval for a large buyback, but still the share price is stagnating. VET is doing even worse, but that's partly because of windfall taxes in Europe. Some Canadian producers have been absolutely smashed, e.g. Pipestone is down 50% from the recent peak. Yes, I have holdings in all of those companies + I3E.

In summary: it's not currently a bull market for energy companies. I don't mind if they raise the dividend, because I'll welcome the extra income, but I doubt it will change the share price. OPEC is not in control of the global economy or they would have avoided WTI going negative in 2020. Obviously, I hope they can support it, but I suspect nobody can hold up such a large market if the global economy tanks.

@Stas, No sensible company will raise the dividend in a falling commodity environment. Let's forget about that nonsensical idea. I'd rather they conserve cash in case there's an M&A opportunity if/when oil crashes again - as they did last time.

Nobody knows what the oil price will do, but given that it's been downtrending for almost 6m and the entire world is entering a recession, I'm not going to load up. Yes, China is re-opening, but covid cases are skyrocketing and it's looking like they're already in the worst recession since the early 90s. Only time will tell.

I am long I3E, but I welcome people that are short and am happy to hear their arguments.

I doubt that many investors will care that much if the divi is raised by a percent or two, but any subsequent cut could see the share price back at 10p if that happened after a drop of WTI back to $60.

@G_G_G: "HotChip, some upward movement in the monthly dividend payment will give us all a greater income at the very least. "

I think it's foolhardy to increase the dividend in a falling oil price environment. Oil has fallen from $120 -> $70 since June and there's no reason it couldn't hit $60 or even $50 in a recession. It all hinges on what happens in China. Raising the divi and then having to cut it again would be disastrous.

UOG - as in 'United Oil & Gas finding a billion barrels in Jamaica'? it's equally likely that Elvis will be found alive and well, singing Reggae in Kingston. UOG has to be one of the biggest 'Jam Tomorrow' companies on the entire planet. In the real world, their producion has been ticking down for years, with the current level barely above a thousand boepd.

The Canadian natural gas producer Birchcliff Energy has announced an 8% divi + share buybacks and it's done nothing for the share price. Hint: we're in a bear market and most small/mid-cap energy companies have been smashed like I3E since about mid June. The poor I3E share price performance is not due to some 'mystery PI'; it's unlikely to fly up once he's finished...

I see that Australia has agreed a price cap on natural gas and is about to do the same for coal. Anybody know if this is going to affect ECOR?

I tried following up with the FCA and AIM Regulation etc. and even threatened to sue them, but alas they have done nothing. At least they're consistent in their approach!

With all respect to Eric Nuttall - he cannot sell, even if he wanted to. His holdings are far too big for that. That's why he had to ride the market down 90% on some of his holdings in the 2020 crash. There's no way that Eric is neutral on the subject. Anybody that thinks he is needs to wakeup. The world is heading into a recession and there are as many arguments for a low oil price as for a high price; you need to be careful that you're not listening to only one side of the story.

I think there is some hope once China is out of the covid situation, but that is months away yet. It's exceedingly unlikely for any oil company share to consistently rise until that point. Cheap or not.