Member Info for Canary3

Thanks for the link PMH , i thought that when it was announced it would be three years in the making, not that it was good to go.

IMO if it goes well, then it can go global and Iceland and THG will do very nicely.

Iceland can't do that alone but in partnership with THG who knows and they can share the proceeds if it happens

Golden , 3 years working on it and they will just say no to another major retailer in say the US or Australia I don't think so, they will just say NO this is just for Iceland and we are keeping it to that partner only

Rubbish?

Thanks for the links Golden, very decent IMO

IMO shorts aren’t an issue, eventually they will close ro the SP will track up with the still in play.. Attached is a list of the top 100 shorted stocks in the UK, Boo and Asos top of the pops we are well down the list
https://uk.advfn.com/toplists/free/most_shorted

Any fool in the land..deary me..what fools we have posting here.

Lucky...you are having laugh..why don't you go and try and be as lucky as MM.

Ocado today, down massively from highs, broker downgrades all over the place, massive contract landed in S Korea.

All under the radar

we know that THG works with multi nationals..

Who knows certainly not me

One day it will and that will be that

IMO THG is still in growth mode with its spending, albeit we can see the end of growth coming and then into a more conventional BAU spend.

Putting BAU valuations on a growth model are Imo, not recognising that the company has another couple of years to get to where it wants to be.

Once it gets there the benefits will then kick in on turbo, THG extended it's banking facilities at very very advantageous terms very recently, if they didn’t have a credible future the banks would have said no.

This debate for me is a couple of years too soon.

But it's a very good read.

Ingenuity and THG is IMO in high growth/spend phase still, as the Automation increases and goes live then the spend declines then staff costs will automatically fall.

the business and infrastructure is not ‘mature'

It may be of course that the cost are included in the capital spend, if that its the case then that spend will fall dramatically as the automation goes live.

I think that a lot of higher paid ‘implementation’ staff will finish, likely they will been temporary contracts and earring a fair whack.

they will include highly skilled project managers, as well as process and systems people. It's common practice in big projects like this to use contract workers and they pass the thing onto full time employees when its’s done.

The project bill on contractors is usually eye watering but it is much more expensive to employ them full time.

If it's the sort of implementation that i imagine it is.

I gave an estimate at 50k cost to the company for ingenuity staff, assuming that they have good number of highly paid IT staff and likely consultant working that area.

Cost to company assumes item including, Company NI, expenses and pension contributions.

If they are all minimum wage staff or near to that in Ingenuity then of course the bill will be less.

So I’ve been thinking about Ingenuity , they have about 1,000 staff, say they earn on average cost to the company 50k PA , then thats a wage bill of 50 million. then they have a lot of spare space . So it's big.

If i take my own situation with pets, my spend D2C in the last 3 years had gone from 200 pounds a year to about 2,000 pounds a year. ( Non Amazon), i get some Purina stuff, so if i am one of many its a growing market. I get quite a lot from an online site called Zooplus, its a German company , owned by PE shipping to 30 countries. Bought in 2021 for 3.3 billion Euro. I get purina products from them.

Purina is the overall brand for Nestle for their pet food, including Chappie and winalot for dogs and Felix for cats, these are just 3 of many.

So if for example if Nestle wants to centralise distribution for one brand and change existing arrangements then its a huge task.

The Brand ambassador in Nestle will instinctively say no, unless the growth in D2C means they need more capacity, they could of course keep all existing routes to market open and just addd new capacity through another partner.

If the Brand ambassador is too be Ok with the change / additional capacity, the first thing they will ask will be, will this damage the brand and will want all risk mitigated as much as possible, then they will look at the benefits.

So due diligence will include items such as,

- Capacity , now and future..so can you do it tomorrow and in 5 years time ( they don't change often unless they have to)
- Systems, processes and people are they robust , are they up to the job, can they cope with spikes / downturns in demand, what happens if a warehouse goes up in flames, have they got back up facilities, what are their disaster recovery arrangements
- Financials are they going to go bust , can they get additional funding if needed , what are their accounts like
- Security can someone get in and put poison/Impurities into the products , how can they prove that it didn’t happen when the goods were in their care

and many more.

And that to get 24 tins of dog food to me on time at price that i find acceptable.

Getting accounts / Brands like this is huge task.

I feel certain that THG can do it...

Didn’t finish

So to publicly stay the change of strategy to focusing on whales, means to me that something substantial will be coming down the Pike from one or more of the big names already on board.

I remember that Linked in Post something about we are working on three big projects with big names.

The whales that MM refers to will already be partners with THG, to get anywhere meaningful with a multi national is a huge task and takes many years, unless you have something that is completely revolutionary, is certain to work and can be trialled and at your cost.

Amazon gave weak Guidance for Q4 i think that had a bigger effect than the numbers for the last Q.

The Crowman - I was reading yours on the 10th of Oct SP 32 - So you can read mine if you like.

"FGS There was No offer. The only offer came from insiders hoping to drag in areal one.

End of. If it could be proved the police would be arresting peeps. Sadly it cannot so just quit dining out on the 4Bln offer nonsense.

Next stop 25p and then teens where I do expect it to bounce."

Banks Lending I agree.

remembering this is in time where banks are making large provisions for bad debts and the Financial Pages are full of articles about zombie companies that will have to fold under the strain of increasing interest rates.

Covenant Lite loans were a big issue in the 2008 meltdown , where lenders hadn’t adequately protected themselves.

Big vote of confidence

Golden :Lib - made it clear that they no longer thought SOTP was applicable when they went to 45 after the Q results, they started that down grade by saying ‘’we got this one wrong’ .

They did then say after the latest trading update, we see no catalyst but SOTP will be more if it applies ( or words to that effect).

I don't agree that that you need cash flow neutral to get a SOTP offer.

But it takes many views to make a market.

Dead duck was someone else i have no interest i what you paid as i agree its not relevant,