Member Info for Canary3

Golden- the things you are saying are IMO the same points as Liberum and i guess Barclays and JPM, they are at 45, 50 and 38 respectively.

Librerum said that they see no catalyst to see any improvement., strangely recommending HOLD when they should really be saying SELL.

We sit at 58 or so, if they are right we will fall back and then when the numbers come in as they predict we will likely get another downgrade.

Personally i think the business has more value than that, perhaps not the 700 but certainly in excess of £1.

We all make decisions based on what we think will happen in the future, Librium are going strictly by the numbers being traded and their view of the future. I am going on what i think someone might pay for the business.

GL

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2010/mar/10/charles-allen-career-highs-lows

Interesting article from 2010 in Gruinard..Look at him now

Humble beginnings, a fighter and a good man to have on your side

They all need to agree and get others to agree, the thresholds are in concrete, and there are laws against manipulation, and some won’t want to look ‘dodgy’.

I cant see them selling out for peanuts

But thats just my view

I was just looking over the take-over code. two ways to acquire company

Straightforward offer contractual, Over 50% of shareholders must accept to go unconditional, and to squeeze out the rest of the shareholders 90% of shareholders must agree. In practice they gnarly go for the 90%

The other is

Scheme of Acceptance - Most takeovers happen this way. The threshold is,

75% of shareholders by Value and by volume.

Basically the team / company doing the acquiring must get 75% or 90% depending upon which route they go.

I am sure enough shareholders will hold out to get a good enough price to accept, if this does get taken over /taken private it wont be for pennies, unless trade collapses.

IMO

I guess that why i said , imagine...

I imagine they are a great help with the THG influencer community, get up to the hotel have a great time spend some time with the boss, managers and the customer reps from the company.

I suspect that both nutrition and beauty influencers will be pleased with that.

Anyway , yesterday afternoon i thought long and hard about selling all my under 40 buys, I didn’t but it was close.

Gl To all

On the trade by MM and QAI, i am sure that its possible to get permission to trade in a closed period if there are exceptional circumstances.

I would imagine the trade was cleared or agreed previously and notified.

I have stayed and bough because of beauty, looking at the figures today they Look Fantastic , i believe that this division will blow the doors off, as it were, at the next update, the Growth since IPO is extremely impressive.

This alone must be the value of the company as it stands.

Keep holding IMO

I would ignore that poster if i was you Golden, obviously enjoying trying to wind you up.

Thnaks Golden and to everyone else for very interesting information

Golden on My protein, a couple of questions if that ok

- Is this a recent thing IE last couple of weeks or a couple of months?
- Have you seen it before or is it completely new?
- Is the reporting exactly the same format as before you saw the slowing ?
- Has there been any price differences apart from those you mentioned?
Thanks

50 % drop is huge if the numbers are usually consistent

So everyone knows that Softbank was and is selling off assets the only Question really around for us was , is the THG one for the chop.

Trying to sell 8% of an unloved company at anywhere near fair value is an almost impossible task, as JUP has found out. I suspect that quiet conversations have been going on for months., and i also think that those conversations wouldn’t stop director dealings.

It seems no coincidence that the good Lord bought 1,250,000 at 41p and S Whitehead bought 5 million at 39p , and lo and LO and behold Softbank sell at 39p.

I also think that the fact the the QIA bought in partnership with MM is important, that says to me that they like THG after all they will now have 15ish %( try to get rid of them at fair value), but partnering with MM says to all that they like THG with MM at the helm, a clear signal IMO. That IMO makes the golden share irrelevant.

The QIA is the 9th biggest sovereign fund as at March 2022, when an article on Bloomberg was written Titled QIA shift from trophy investments to Tech. They sold 1 billion pounds worth of Glencore that week.

Every distressed Tech company in the world and some that aren’t distressed will have been beating on their door for talks, and here we are in OCT, after 6 months of the opportunity to back many many plays, they take a massive position in THG and back MM.

That says to me that they don't regard THG a retail outlet or play on the price of Whey, IMO they still see the original proposition of a tech based company. That is of course off they are pivoting to tech, and IMO they are as Bloomberg wouldn’t have run that article without QIA permission

They are here for the long haul, the only outstanding question is public or private, personally i think public .

A few canary musings, but not picking shares, predicting a share-price or giving advice-LOL

They are obviously committed to THG, the financial managers that work for them will be saying Look your eminence, you are getting a load at 39p we suggest you buy loads more , really as many as you can get up to a price level of ..xx

Then we can look at your final position after that,

The QIA get more cheap shares and the advisors look good.

I hope the shorts are in still in play, that would indicate that the significant gains in the last week are driven by real buyers , rather than traders.

These people don’t gamble they take measured risks.

March 22 - Joins company
April 22 - The takeover approaches happen
June the 16th Formal end of Takeover approaches
June the 27 Buys 1, 115,000 shares at 86p, after stating ignore the flim flam , 1.70 Materially undervalues the company.

Price then falls dramatically. and continues to fall.

It hits the 40’s I am beginning to think perhaps he has been overconfident misread the business,
Sept the 29th we are informed that he bought 1,250,000 shares at a price of 41.11p

He would never have bought these if he had misread the business, imagine him going into his club in London, Hi Charles that was bit silly buying another 1 million or so shares in the dog of a company that your Non - Exec chairman of, I think the times writers like to call it the shed. Ho Ho Ho

I then thought i will buy as much as i can , it fell to 31, i was down a very considerable sum..so i bought some more and got 32 and a bit.

If he hadn't bought at 41 i would have been out and crying in my beer.

The we have had the buys by S Whitehead , MM, shares allocated to the key staff fund, and now MM and the QIA

I have never seen such buying by people that know a business well , hold I say

For me i think it will stay public.

He said the company is undervalued at 1.70 after doing the rounds of major shareholders.
He then bought 1 million

I would imagine this deal was many weeks in the making, most likely before the last update, so IMO anything can come out next week, good or bad.

Covering their backs after 45p call and ditching SOP

Analysts at broker Liberum Capital said: "On an underlying basis the group is cheap (especially if you apply an SOTP) but we see little catalyst coming from trading considering the consumer backdrop.

"However the further increase in Mouldings stake and by QIA may very well increase rumours that THG will be subject to a potential MBO or P2P [public to private transaction]."

Taking the company private has its drawbacks as well, the number of funds crippled by holding hard to trade / non liquid / unquoted investments.

The major holders might want it to stay quoted, it's all guess work unless you are them.

I am holding to find out

I wonder how much stock there is and how much of it has been paid for. Things have taken a massive turn for the worse in the latest missive regarding a small audit matter that’s no impact on trading or profits as mooted in the first RNS.

It will be a while before the full picture emerges.

On politics

GE for me things are beyond parody, get rid of Boris , protracted leadership contest, Truss puts right hand man under the bus.

And for goodness sake get a grip of these pensions schemes and mark them to market over the next 6 months and forbid leverage .