Member Info for Canary3

IMO the lack of communication around this points to the rumours around nutrition having some credibility.

He can hardly produce/advise on a strategy in conjunction with MM and the board that is either misleading or breaching confidentiality.

MM refused to speak about any moves around Nutrition in Sept. That being prompted by a question from an analyst , so IMO the analyst had heard something, and we have the post on here that also adds credibility.( sorry forgot the posters moniker.)

So it all points to something happening / being discussed.

On Gillette it seems that THG does UK , NI and Germany.

They did respond, it's quoted in the article.

It could equally be that the insurer is under pressure, if they reduce cover across a number of companies, they reduce the need to keep capital ring fenced for the cover.

Insurers are required to have enough capital to support the level of cover they make available to customers, they balance that across the risk portfolio.

The second article is a fishing expedition IMO, basically whats going on, why the silence.

They are used to MM doing Social Media, being a bit outspoken, but since the good lord has come on board he says very little.

Clearly the rumours are getting stronger, and perhaps Journalists want to break a story.

Interesting indeed, first time the good lord has been called out in the press to my knowledge.

It could be of course that the Journalists have been prompted by the B Boards

Because apparently they are good at reading.

This i how i get my razor blades- owned by Proctor and Gamble.

Ingenuity on the website.

Phil Stephenson the COO has gone at the same time, it’s not about bullying IMO , the board must be very unhappy about something.

Interesting times at NCM

2P - I agree and partial sale might be part of the answer, but IMO no MBO

Why i think won't MBO is about control and debt. He has already said that the last bids were well funded and reputable, but he didn’t think debt was the right thing to do for THG.

Say in a proposed MBO ( i am completely making up numbers here so don't jump on them.)

Company Value for MBO 1 billion

40% don't want to rollover cash required 400 million , the assumption is that the QIA will fund it, if they do they become the majority shareholder and so MM loses control.

It is much more likely IMO, that he sells a minority percentage of either nutrition or Beauty after they have a years number under their belt.

That transaction will up the value of the entire group and bobs your uncle

Guessing away on the south coast!!

Just going back to MBO if its on..which i don't think will , but if it goes to a SOA 75% is the magic number.

Fund and II’s have sold between them 361 million and bought 13 million, so 348 million have gone to a new home, according to Morningstar

IF they have gone to Team MM he will have near enough the 75% required IMO

IF they have gone to PE then it's game on.

Interesting times.

It also shows funds, many have gone to Zero. Including JUP mid cap

This is interesting sales by II’s looks like in the last Q but could be YTD but not sure.

Sold by ii’s 266 million

Bought by II’s 3 million

Did Pi’s buy the rest....

https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xlon/thg/ownership

Straw Man on sales

we did 42% of revenue from the UK in 2021.

We are hoping for Circa 800 million this quarter. So about 320 million from the UK.

Say we did 25% before cyber weekend and Xmas so 240 million before peak trading.

Say we did 50% of sales on Cyber and Black Monday before xmas so 120 million to do over xmas

Perhaps the big numbers and very competitive prices for my protein was done in order to get the goods out the door before planned strikes. ?

So if 120 million is at Xmas, how much is stuck in the post as it were and what impact will that have.

there will be profit warnings and downgrades from Internet retailers for sure, will THG be among them?

Any thoughts.

I saw that and it was very helpful, i am wondering about the delivery situation.

I am going to look through it and hope that in the next quarter delivery returns to normal, and THG look to premium / Guaranteed delivery for higher value orders.

The question is how big a hit from this for THG boo and so on.

Tricky

SP yesterday Bottom 55 top 63

Personally I bought loads in the 30s, 40s and 50’s, my average is very close to the Good lords..I have enough thank you.

The Good Lord is the one to keep an eye on...

On massive selling volume as well, no wonder-its down so badly..

Season ticket revenue have crashed, the railways will never make money. All are basically nationalised as they cant survive without taxpayer support.

WFH has killed the railways and they need Beeching to. be resurrected.

Great stuff Crafty..good to see some good news on the beauty front.

Big Tick up from me.

Big deals take time said MM, what I am saying is that i believe they are starting to come and the brokers will change their tune.

Currently they are all around 50 give or take 10%, apart from cannacord who are at 85 from memory.

In fact now we at 57, they will be saying ‘told you so’ if my hypothesis is correct with the deals coming they will be OH its starting to look promising we will move our targets up.

They hunt in packs..

Mainly they dropped their forecast because the went from SOTP to earnings. Librium said that.

They have lost faith in the original vision.

IMO that Vision is still intact, Ingenuity does work as it powers the other two the divisions.

IF the post on linked is correct about Heinz to home , and THG are doing the majority of the work, then that will be a big wake up moment.

The site has has 76 products on its make up your own bundle, and they launched a Christmas range.

Two or three products have gone ‘back soon’ since Saturday so it looks like they have been selected by customers.

The company has said nothing so it could be that THG are doing a very small part. I don't think so, Heinz alongside the other customers that we know use THG, will cause some brokers to start putting more emphasis back on SOTP.

Heinz to home was set up very quickly during covid and the current offering feels a lot slicker and has been able to introduce new items at speed. Looking at the OZ site the UK one seems much more advanced.

I see a significant turnaround over the next 6 months.

BTW there will be loads of over 65’s hitting the internet at the moment for last minute presents our local market was very quiet today second last one before XMAS usually packed, the pavements were like ice rinks, a fall on ice when you are over 65 with strikes all over the place, home is where you want to be in this weather.

As i have posted before i like to kept eye on my local boots. 4 in close proximity.

Apparently as soon as shelves are refilled with product, the thieves are in and walking out with the gear.

Been posts on the local facebook page complaining about no stock for paying customers!!

Today there was tight security on the door of the one i passed, not just one guard hanging around mainly on the phone, but actively questioning shoppers, and opening and closing to door.

It can be tricky running bricks and mortar.