Member Info for Canary3

This 21 year old? WK Capital

https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/13250295

MM might not have been the best at Corporate governance, but he really does know how to get the Nutrition team firing on all Cylinders..

Very good work by them and a great spot from dafad.. Thnaks

Are you not in the loop Oxford?

LOL

A subsidiary of Ali Baba did the recent smart fulfilment centre in China for Nestle

Moniman - If we went to a qualified financial advisor and said we want him to invest in a single company they would do their best to dissuade us and if we persisted they would strongly advise against it but if we must then do it execution only as they would refuse. They would also say don't put any more than 1 or 2 percent of your portfolio into it.

The only things that are regarded as higher risk that an individual shares are things like CFD’s, Spreadbetting, unsecured mini-bonds, IPO’s. Cryptos and so on.

This is how i look at THG, i think of it at it as four phases of investing. post IPO and the risk v reward around it.

1. On or around the IPO, these investors take the biggest risk for the biggest reward. IE it goes up over 5 pounds and stays there and value increases as growth predictions set out in the prospectus come to fruition and the risk factor are not as great as set out. Fevertree would be a good recent example.

2. The SP didn’t stay long over 5 pounds but investors at stage 1 would still believe that it was going to recover, until around the capital markets day when there was around a 30% one day decline. Then the value investing starts, individuals and investing companies take another look and say this is overdone and buy some more or enter a position for the first time., or they they think the risk is too great they continue to sell or avoid the share. Jupiter UK mid cap is a good example they visited the company and then bought more at 1.29

3 The sp continues to fall and when it went below 1 pound the Bottom Feeders start to have a look, they think has the price fallen to fair value( whatever that is), and they may take a small position . I of course am a bottom feeder.

4. Finally as the SP continues to fall the bottom feeders either add more or hold, and the traders arrive and things go a bit crazy , in THG case there was forced selling driving the price down , and we have bobbed around 40-50 in the main. This was all influenced by a high profile stale bull investor that held all the way down. Librium, they slashed their target and basically the rest of them have herded around that target and here we are.

So I am a conviction bottom feeder on THG, for reasons I have posted many times but principally influenced by the actions of Lord Allen and the idea that neither beauty or Nutrition are considered to have much value by the analysts.

I dont worry about shorts , for me its all about the company proving that it is worthy investment and i see my down side as being around 39p if the worst comes to the worst. But as I say I am a conviction bottom feeder and bought more in the break between Christmas and new year.

Unfortunately 48p all holders are now Bottom feeders whether they like it or not.

GL

@Goldenyears. (Sorry other posters.)

Is there a FACT in your post or are you just gambling and hoping? or perhaps you really do know something and can’t post?

LOL what a hypocrite after your sanctimonious hyperbole

TBF i do hope you know something BTW because i will find that very helpful

Bed Bath and Beyond considering options including bankruptcy, confirms the though that the small ticket sellers are doing ok and the big ticket household goods are having tough time.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/05/bed-bath-beyond-shares-plummet-as-company-warns-of-deeper-financial-troubles.html

That should be ‘Ste2000 of course

I think Set has very fair points and the positives outlines are also fair.

I would say that part of the anger from the analysts at the half year was because there was no profit warning or any other indication that things were not on track, and there should have been. Even if it was done privately.

Pharmacy sales down 0.9 % compared to the Quarter last year.

They look to be closing stores and the back office people that support it for that 18,000

Amazon dropped over 200,000 full time and part time Jobs from Q1 2022 to Q 3 2022,

18 thousand they probably lost then last week

LOL

IMO If we are seeing some action on expenses as posted on here , if Iceland is a success and we see some more action on ingenuity then some of the names mentioned will be taking positions again.

The sp was at 40p in the days before the new year break the relatively large volume on one day that drove the SP down 10 could well have been a bit of window dressing.

If they buy sub 60 p and by year end they are well up, they will be very pleased.

I think the writers use of Skirt the rules points to a probability that Apple will be all over this and if they feel that there is a case that the initiative breaks rather than skirts the rules , they they will be lobbying and eventually litigating if they cannot get satisfaction..

The other thing that strikes me is,, that if sell say 50 million dollars a year of tableware in the US to trade and retail customers, why would i want to share my customers data with another company that can compete with me.?

But it certainly shows that first party data is where it's at confirming the trend that has inspired the Nestle initiative.

Interesting indeed

I first invested because he took on his role here, and i have subsequently invested all the way down from his first buy of 1 One million pounds and then when he put in another 500,000 pounds at 41 p, i bought more all the way down to the bottom that the sp has reached so far.

On the way i have been learning as much as i can about the biz and have a dig around other stuff like the nestle thing.

Like many I am of the view that both nutrition and beauty have great potential and indeed value , making that value transparent hopefully will come as the numbers are produced for each area.

So that is my gamble as it were., and if TGL has faith in the team , thats good enough for me, and if there needs to be some additions and leavers then that will happen in due course IMO

My thought on the review is that since the formal end end of the bid process the review is in full swing and i think there are actions been taken as a result, Luxury, Demand and the introduction of fees for returns being the most visible ones right now. The though that It is THG putting and an embargo on taking on new clients into ingenuity would also support this.

I also think , that the seemingly complete news blackout is tied in with the review , IMO they don't want to be put in a position where awkward questions could be asked, and tat leaves me to believe that there will be more substantial announcements in due course.

Finally if it is possible they can slow down the final build out and spread it over another year to ease pressure on cash.

But of course these are just my thoughts and conjecture.

Golden you are an educated fool..IMO

Go buy some gilts.

Golden - If we wanted to invest in facts we would be buying 10 year gilts at just under 4%.

If we wanted to invest stable companies we would invest in, I don't know what , Microsoft down massively . Bat up 30 odd percent from lows, a few years ago I was buying Imperial at under 10 pounds and selling Shell at 12.

This is a company that has either a fantastic future or is doomed, depending on who you believe.

As you said to DG, if you don't like it investing isn’t for you.

But GL anyway you can’t run with the hounds and the hares.

@okehurst- thats kind, but I am just finding information and articles that are in the public domain and drawing some conclusions. the same as other posters, i find it interesting as well as helping me decide whether or not I should be so heavily invested.

I have worked with customers and data for most of my career, from the start of Dunn Humby through to large scale roll-outs of salesforce .com

I have also worked at a senior level within a well known fast fashion retailer that was great at bricks and mortar and missed the internet revolution.

I have other work experience as well.

however i am 10 years out of date, so systems capability has moved on, however the explosion of data particularly in the last years or so, has made it more difficult to gather , analyse and make judgements using data.

Basically currently major multi nationals are swamped with data, and as a result they don't know what is important to shaping their strategy and decisions and they don't know what data can be trusted.

A quick google throws up many articles and offers of help on this issue.

Hence again IMO the new approach from Nestle.

The centre i linked to is the Nestle Alibaba joint venture , that centre will sell manage and deliver multiple Nestle brands to customers that purchase from it.

In my head that means Nestle will be able to get data by customer across the range of products and that will allow them to track customers by life stage experience.

IMO they commissioned that centre as a Joint venture specifically for their new approach ( to them) off tracking customers across nestle brands.

IMO If that could already be done easily they wouldn’t have opened a new facility.

Tesco could do it for Nestle brands per customer, but they wouldn’t be able to tell you what the customer buys from other retailers.

I think that THG can do that for them in the UK. IE sell multiple nestle products and products the required data quickly and in the required formats. nestle can then use that information to guide sales and marketing across their other channels.

On another note i thought it is interesting that THG on demand is being mothballed Nod to Red for posting also the introduction of fees for returns. This points to me that there is a focus on managing costs and it is surely the tip of the iceberg as it were.

Finally another no comment this time on fees..the news blackout continues.

GL

The new approach A la china will not be 4% / 6% of turnover

That just doesn’t work , there will be a new model for that.