Member Info for Brockwl

Jim,
Interesting numbers which I thank you for sharing. They do provide some long term confidence.
I accept that they are just basic figures, but would question 2 elements. One positive and one negative.

I think that assuming you will see growth (ie increase in revenue), at the levels highlighted, without any increase in outgoings or ongoing costs is naïve. I'd expect to see a minimum of 10% increase in costs going forward.
May even be a great deal more once we start having to deliver auto The ramp up/cashflow costs here may be significant.
Whilst that is great for the longer term, it may cause issues for the breakeven to be achieved without raising money somehow. Although I'd hope that not to be via dilution, but via a bank loan etc.
The 8.4m extra profit for 2020 should be a ongoing extra. Indeed it should actually increase going forward if we sell more.
However it only seems to get mentioned for 2020. Any idea why that is?

L

Eyetracking,
That's a long list of supposed positives. None of which have much to do with the upcoming update.
They are either things which may benefit us 2 years on, or are - PM said this, and PM said that. As far as I am aware nothing he has promised has yet come to fruition. Until he delivers something promised on time, they are just CEO hopes and aspirations.
Tell me anything other than warm feelings that suggest they will meet the expectations for the next update.
I really hope they do. But feel risk reward is now more risk than reward in the short term.
L

Lewbo18,
Well 5.5k per half gets us to the low end ie 27,000. So that's the minimum to expect. I think it's dangerous to plan for H2 to be much better. I can see why some think that's how it should play out, but I don't want to bank on that.
My concern is that 5.5k puts us on target for the low end of guidance, yet the graph suggests that's in doubt. I agree the graph is not an ideal reference, but given the company failing to update us, it's all we have to go on.
The fact 5.5k in the first half could be a stretch worries me, because a lot of people not only think this is in the bag, but they think it will be well beat.
The company plays a dangerous game with holding info which should be available either monthly or quarterly.

L

I read this board regularly but rarely contribute. I have a largish position in See. Larger than I'd like ideally, as a result of averaging down. So like Bud I'm concerned about the upcoming update. Whilst I've been impressed by the quality of researchers here, I'm surprised at the over confidence being expressed 're the next set of numbers.
What most concerns me is that I see little compelling evidence to suggest they will hit the predictions let alone knock them out of the park as S2020 is convinced will occur.
1. The graphs produced by whatif suggest that at this stage we are behind where we need to be. That doesn't suggest we will knock Fleet numbers out of the park.
2. Pretty much everything this company has tried to deliver over the years has taken far longer than anyone imagined. I fully understand the reasons behind that, however I don't see that having changed greatly. Indeed the failure to deliver the latest aviation promises reinforce my concerns.

Whilst I think the company has a great future, it's the next upgrade I'm nervous about. I see a good chance of both Fleet numbers being below guidance and revenue being missed. However due to the guardian cost reductions profit may be within target.

What concrete evidence exists to suggest theses numbers will be hit. I need more than how confident S2020 thinks our CEO was at the last presentation.

Cheers

L