Member Info for Brockwl

Last couple of weeks showing signs of mileage figures returning to normality.
My calculations suggest we are up to around 28260 Installations now.
Still moving forward, but way below where we would have hoped to be.

Quite amazing what a bit of fluff can do to the share price.
Maybe they have judged this to be the right time to engage in stronger PR. Possibly because they know whats coming to back it up.
I don't personally think the DMS enforcement matters a great deal anymore. It's being driven commercially now with everyone needing to try and match GM and Ford in Auto. However it may still be useful in trucks and freight. So let's hope any legislation includes those.

Fleet numbers have been pretty subdued since Christmas mileage peaks. Hard to know if this is Covid related or just installs stalling. Most likely Covid related.
However this week has seen a strong bounce back, with a 2 million mile increase. To put that in perspective it's a 4% increase on last week.
No doubt the lead up to Easter is having some effect.
However it's resulted in a weekly record and a Tuesday record. So suggests we have at least increased on the previous notified installed units.
Last installed total was 26597, so 30,000 would be what I'd like to see, but suspect it will be somewhere in between.
GLA

Don't see results tomorrow moving the price forward. Most of the financials are fairly well known from previous trading statements and the market will typically hope for something a little better. This rarely happens and like previous results when we slightly disappoint on numbers it causes a price drop, because many have unrealistic expectations.
That's the nature of shares which are seen as blue sky or still loss making.
Any upward price moves tomorrow will depend on what is said about future outlook and how close we are to generating meaningful revenue and profit.

Hoping for good news, but expecting nothing out of the ordinary and in line results, which will likely see a fall in price.

GLA

I'm getting 9m from a price illustration posted on here recently. Which showed costs for 3 different models.
To get super cruise you needed to buy 2 additional add ons. One was super cruise itself and the other i can't remember.
The 100k model came with super cruise. It also showed 2 other models.
One which had the other element as standard so adding super cruise was about 4k,
And 1 which it wasn't where total cost was 8.8k
Have searched back but can't find it now.

Whilst I’m fully convinced that See has the best tech, and the DMS solution will be available in the majority of OEM auto solutions, the recent post which showed the costs of Super Cruise, has made me re-evaluate and question the evolving situation.
Going back a couple of years from here, I envisaged DMS being something that would be offered by auto companies for what it was, ie similar to what we offer in Fleet, and something which protects the driver from themselves, ie if I fall asleep at the wheel it will wake me up.
However, one year down the road, the Auto DMS solution seems to have been hi-jacked and only be offered, or included as part of a Super Cruise or Auto-Pilot type of solution.
My concerns here having seen the cost of Super Cruise, is the following:
The take up will be low, amongst the medium to low cost models.
The Super Cruise cost is approx. $9000. Now whilst it comes as standard in a $100,000, and I can see a large number of those buying a $80,000 stumping up the extra $9000. I doubt those buying the $40,000 models will be that keen to spend another $9000.
I’m beginning to be concerned that because most OEMs have tied DMS solely into the Auto drive products, revenue will be held back, until these things become standard in lower value models.
That may take many years.
From a personal point of view. If I was buying a new car, I would pay the cost of DMS as a standalone safety feature, but wouldn’t pay $9000 for Super Cruise.

Interested in how others see this issue

Be interesting to see how the share price reacts to next week's trading statement. Historically it's typically reached poorly, as it forces holders to focus on the financials of here and now. Profitability always seems further away than that perceived.
Will it be different now we have a bigger percentage of large holders and IIs, who take the longer term view?
If the news is only related to trading I suspect we will see the usual pull back.
However if they release something alongside or provide an outlook statement it may kick on.
I'm preparing for the usual pull back.

GLA

Unfortunately Fleet data seems to take a dive for about 6 weeks at this time in the year. So add in covid and the data isn't telling us much currently.
Should start to be more meaningful from next week.

Will update then.

Tiger,
Basically the man behind Astor is a very nasty business man. He sold the land/mine to ATYM and then did everything he could to stop us succeeding.
The whole mining rights thing took over 7 years to achieve, and there were lots of stories of corrupt officials holding it all back who were in his pocket.
Anyway a lot of bad blood between the company and him. So in return the company has used a badly constructed contract to legally withhold payment, and use the money for cap/ex projects.
This has resulted in profits looking weak while this has occurred. But reasons to reinvest this money have pretty much run out now. So these should increase substantially going forward.
He also gets a small royalty from sales and many speculated withholding the payment was a attempt to get him back to the negotiating table.
No dividends until settled.
The company have deliberately kept profits to less than would trigger payment, but believe this won't happen going forward, as now in appeal of that value. So either we win and declare whatever we want without paying, or lose and will settle. The company can readily afford it now.

Fleet numbers a little disappointing to be honest. I'd have hoped for a little better.

Terry,
To be honest its almost impossible to tell . All one can take from the mileage stats is that Fleet continues to increase, and since July it's going up by around 650 a month.
My calculations suggest that at the start of July we were at 23K, and we are now at 26.5K.
However calculating using mileage stats is pretty crude, given that Fleet companies will be busier some weeks than others , and the busy weeks will vary around the world. In addition to this we have Covid and in places a lockdown, which will clearly affect mileage figures. Good example of this is that I read National Expresses latest RNS this week, in which they disclosed that at least 90% of their coaches are currently not running since the start of this latest lockdown.

Based on all that I'm currently assuming that mileage is down about 10%, which if correct and added back in would mean we are at about 29K.
It really wouldn't be that hard for the company to publish monthly or at least quarterly updates on this .
Quite why they don't is a bit of a mystery to me, and I would really like to know the reason.

GLA

I'll be quite surprised if we get a RNS tomorrow.
That would not only suggest this was leaked, but judging by the volumes bought Friday, it was leaked to very big players, and possibly IIs.

It's far more likely to have been one or more IIs buying in.
If so that may continue Monday, but equally they may well stop at some stage and the price is likely to fall back.
Whilst Friday's move was great news, be prepared for some volatility next week as its got to peak and drop back at some point.

gla

I'd be somewhat sceptical about the 1m a month cash burn. The 35m and 38m are rounded down and up numbers.
The 38m number is actually 38.1. No exact number on the 35m to go on, but could be 34.5. Which would increase burn to 1.2m.
They are very good at rounding highlight numbers to their advantage.
There is at least one example where 18.8m becomes 18m, because a lower figure makes better reading.
Why no fleet current installation figure?
Seems they have also finally published a fleet churn figure of 2%. So that's a loss of 50 a month. Something that the over enthusiastic on here completely dismissed when I raised the question, as being negligable.
Results are ok, but thats all they are. Once again no where near some of the hype on here.

Seeing thanks for that.

I have to say I'm not overwhelmed with results. However this is all about future revenue streams kicking in now. 20% increases in revenue isn't going to cut it. It needs 100% jumps year on year at some point. Hopefully auto will provide that before the 60 m runs out.
It should but until it happens I'll remain sceptical.

Seeing how do you get cash burn of 1 m a month. I get approx 19m last year so 1.5 per month?

I've sort of assumed (possibly naively) that the automobile DMS solution will, as well as being part of the hand off when going into auto drive capability, also be switched on permanently in the same way that Fleet operates.
From reading the Ford F150 promotion linked in the other thread, it gives the impression its only operational when in auto drive mode, or lane centering mode.
Part of the attraction to purchasing DMS in a new car for me, would be that even in normal driving mode, I would be alerted or awaken from micro sleeps etc.
Yet the above suggests this doesn't happen.
Anyone any ideas re this, as I think it may have significant relevance re take up etc.

Cheers

The shares arn't going down 10 % tomorrow because of the placing. If that was going to happen it would have happened already. Price reductions occur immediately on placing announcements, if they are going to occur.
If I was having any concerns about short term price action it would be what happens with results. Results here are rarely good news historically, as everything is slightly delayed and income lower than forecast. It's also historical news so rarely has anything to appease a forward looking market, especially with the NDA situation.
However the discovery of who bought is likely to come first and help the price.
So traders may bail at that point, before results.

Jimbo,
Trying to calculate Fleet using the kms published, will always be a crude method, and have flaws which can't be avoided. However if one attempts this you need to avoid including flaws which can be avoided.
In your example you use an average monthly total. This will introduce a unnecessary flaw for a few reasons.
Some months are busier than others
Some months have more bank holidays than others.
Some months have more Sundays and some have more Thursdays. Sundays tend to be very low mileage and Thursdays very high.
Hence using monthly comparisons is not the best way to base the calculation your making.
I do mine using the busiest day of the week ie Thursday.

Fleet has been growing strongly of late, but I don't get to the figures you reach.
What I find is that it has a couple of good weeks, and then falls back or stagnates.

However whilst I take a conservative view, It's very possible that due to covid I'm 10% under estimating, and we could be over 28000 at this point.

Every now and again if you spend any length of time investing in shares, you come across a share which has the potential to be a very good investment indeed.
Typically, 2 of every 10 of those might do very well, and 1 may 10 bag if lucky.
At some point in that journey, if the share is destined to become a winner, there will, a point in time, where for those who understand the company, the investment case becomes compelling.
It seems to me that today’s news, when taken in conjunction with all the other recent news, and stuff we know, but is yet to be announced, has put SEE firmly into this category.
Whilst I have always seen the potential of SEE, I’ve always remained extremely sceptical, especially after the 3p fund raise, which crippled sentiment. The market has many blue-sky opportunities, which take forever for the product to get properly adopted, due to process chain lengths.
The Auto industry has a long process chain, and to get something in that chain takes an age.
However whilst that works against you in the early years, it becomes in your favour once you make it.
For the last 7 years with SEE, we have essentially been buying potential, and for much of that time, have been paying more than we can pay today.
However today we can buy something in which we have:-
A business model which has evolved and become clear,
A management seemingly capable of delivering on it,
Legislation which is supporting us, where the application is safety orientated
A significant moat to protect us.
3 to 4 core applications, plus potential for more to open up.
Close to profitability, with significant revenue streams about to open up.
However, the main reason it’s now compelling, is not only is the potential significant, but the chances of the company now messing it up, and share holders losing money in the medium term, must now be almost non-existent. Hence, it’s almost become a free bet
I’m now coming to the view, that this has reached a point, where I would class it, as a no brainer. Sure, they could mess it up long term, but the revenue stream we can now see for the next 3 to 4 years is now pretty much baked in. So even if they do mess it up, some years down the road, there will have been plenty of opportunities to get out at a significant profit.
I’m already maxed out with these at an average price of 4p, but will continue to buy at this price as cash becomes available.

GLA

I suspect that 30,000 includes all the Caterpillar viechles, and isn't the Fleet figure. Be nice to know how many Caterpillar viechles there are, to provide a reference.
I'm still showing 26500 for Fleet, as of last week.