Member Info for Brockwl

I put a limit order for 30 days in over the weekend for my "final" top up at 4.65. When Mondays RNS came out I resigned myself to it never being filled, but left it in place as nothing to lose.
Well it just got filled at 4.59.
Inconceivable 2 days ago that this price would be on offer again, but there you go, you just never know with this share.
That's definitely my last and final purchase.

GLA

I currently show us at 25,500 based on today's announced km, which is a new record. Assuming we continue growing at around 650 a month we should make just over 27000 by end of the year.

Using the daily kms, is by no means an exact science, especially with covid still affecting so many areas in different ways.
However to date they have published two definitive data points, one in January, and one in June. These currently confirm and validate my recent guessimates.

One thing which I've never heard mentioned re fleet, is whether there is any customer churn. Whether that be cancelling the monitoring or less likely stopping using the device itself.
Does the contract allow for customers to freeze the monitoring payments of trucks which are off road for long periods?
Never heard discussion re any of these possibilities. anyone know?

GLA

He's worked out how to present the product and company now, and is much more comfortable doing it. Comes across confident, relaxed, and understated. His ability to present the company has improved significantly in the last 6 months.
Fell very happy to have him in charge.

Everything is looking extremely positive currently, and potential seems great.
It's so good of late, that it has made me have a significant think over the weekend with regard this share.
Unlike Brutus I haven't decided to increase my holding ten fold, (already have a lot), however the potential here has made me think a little, and whether I am positioned correctly, in the event of a very significant rise.
In my case I've realised that I have the majority of my holding in a SIPP, rather than my ISA, so I will eventually pay quite a bit of tax if this really does explode. I've also decided that I want to slightly increase my holding.
So from today I have started to add a few more and will look to rebalance across SIPP and ISA accounts, as opportunities arise.
As part of this whole thinking it through process, I also realised I need to get mentally prepared, for managing the inevitable ups and downs, which the price will take, in any serious rerating.
I'm guessing that most of the serious believers on here, will have at least 1M shares. If that's the case, as the price increases we could easily have days of 1p or 2p retraces. Assuming 2p that's £20,000 lost in a day.
One needs to be mentally strong to accept those sort of swings, and stay invested for the long term.
If we get to 10p, I'm expecting to have to handle at least a few of those types of days, if we get beyond, then the swings could get even worse.
No idea if I'm up to handling that and staying in for the eventual prize, but am trying to prepare myself for that possibility.
I mention this as now might be the time for others to give this some serious thought.
I'm sure I will top slice if we rerate seriously, but I want to keep as much in as I can emotionally bare.

God luck all.

Terry,
We all want this to do well, but you need to tone down your expectations on fleet numbers. Quite how you seem to jump from a possible 500 installs a month to expecting 1000 I have no idea. You seem to have just plucked that out of thin air.
It makes a massive difference in figures and expectations.
Since July the mileage suggests 650 a month at best.
I'd be very surprised if that increases that much in the short term.

Terry, I'll start taking your guessimates more seriously when you can tell me how many of those 400,000 Mustang E's will have DMS in. Because currently no one knows.
I don't doubt that currently we have the best tech, I'm just not sure how many are going to want to order it.
Until we start to get a handle on those numbers, it's all a guess.
If I understand it right, any current orders in many models, don't even get the features being bought until sometime next year via a internet download. Given that's the case I suspect it will significantly reduce initial take up.

Many people are also sceptical of assist type features. I hear people complaining about lane assist, and emergency braking.
One pulls you back into the pothole you tried to steer around, and the other kicks in far too often in edge cases, thus causing accidents which wouldn't have occurred. A weeping willow hanging too close to a road can cause emergency braking to activate.

I think you need to tone down your expectations re initial take up rates, which is probably why the company go very low ball on expected contract revenue.

It seems to me that getting much above 3p is beyond the share base currently.
I suspect that is all to do with the previous placing, and the fact that a lot of the larger holders from that, are happy to take 10 to 20% profit on a proportion of their holding. In addition we have a number of holders who will have bought much lower, and will be happy to take the near on 100% increase in some cases.
It was hoping that this recent news and rise, would see most of those sellers gone. But clearly we still have some left as the 3.4p on offer is still proving too much.
We either need to wait for the sellers to clear, or receive major news for this to break past 3.5.
However I'm happy to hold going forward. Things are slotting into place. Unfortunately the secrecy and NDAs means that the financials will have to be the impetus. That may take some time yet, but in the mean time the share price should move forward, albeit slowly.

Smokey I agree it's not an exact science. However when your calculation shows the total in June to be less than we were told we had on the road at the 1st Jan, you'd have to think there is something wrong with your maths.
I can't recalculate using Dec mileages as I don't have them.
However Dec mileages will be lower than Jans, and would give me an even lower mileage value, not the higher one you want me to use.

I know that the average km travelled per unit per day has been muted at 350km previously by someone in the company. However if you use the only reference we have ( fleet numbers from Jan 1st) and divide that into a normal day from that time. You get something much closer to 300km.
Until we have another reference point we have to use the best we have.
What is clear is that 350 can no longer be a valid figure, unless 100s of units sat offline through Jan and Feb.
That should come as no surprise as we increase units, as our customer type will vary enormously. Natural economics suggests that early adopters would tend to be those that do the most mileage. I Suspect that has evolved and we have more lower mileage clients coming on board since the 350 statement was made.
In my view 315 is a safe conservative number to use for now, as not only have I increased it from 300 to err on the side of caution, but also used figures from 9th Jan. By the 9th the number of units would have increased a little, but I 've still used the Jan 1st known figure. This also adds another level of slight under calculation to be more cautious.
It's clearly difficult to be exact from only one data point, but enough evidence exists to suggest Fleet is gaining some traction, albeit possibly below forecast due to covid.

I should also say that although I collect every days data I use the Thursday data for my graphs etc. Thursday is typically the busiest day and avoids bank holidays generally.

Cheers

My Fleet data shows similar data results to Whatifs, as it should given it's come from the same data source. Getting down to Fleet numbers rather than KM's travelled daily, which is what I track it for, I get the following.
Jan 1st company reported 20551 Units.
Highest pre covid I calculated at 23078 on the 19th March. So at that point they were on target to hit forecasts.
Highest since then 18th June at 22338

One can only guess at how many units are still off the road, or doing less miles, as this is hiding the true value.
But if we assume 10%, we get 24676 units. I think the low forecast was 27500 at the end of June.
So depends on whether you think 10% currently off the road is fair, but clearly some are, as we show less than we showed in March, and you have to assume units will have only increased.

I'm assuming a worst case of 25,000 at the end of June, which given what's happened with Covid won't be the end of the world. Plus there is a chance it could be better.

Note I'm using 315KM per unit per day to determine units from daily KMs. Which I derived from the taking the Jan published units and dividing the KM from that time, and applying a conservative factor.

Cheers

Smokey,
I calculate Fleet the same as you. Only difference is that I use 315Km per vehicle. Reason I use that number is that the only time they gave an install number it calculated to be that level. So I use that as my base. However what number people use doesn't matter that much, the important thing is too see a trend increasing, and that's what I am seeing. There is no way you can say the trend is not increasing, as you have suggested a couple of times in this debate.
I've set a graph of what we need to hit to reach 27450 by 01/07/2020, and so far we are bang on target with just over 23,000 at this point.
Today was the highest Wednesday we have ever seen, and I hope tomorrow will be the highest Thursday.

Smokey,
No idea how you come to produce those figures, but you are doing something wrong.
Your suggesting we have gone down from year end. I'm seeing a steady increase, which is on a trend to meet lower end of the guidance.
Not currently shooting the lights out, but good enough to keep me invested.
If it picks up further as suggested then that will be very good.

The other thing that worries me from your workings. Is that after the 3 years is complete we start to lose the monthly $30 revenue from the hardware purchases. At that point Fleet will need to do 16,000 over 3 years (5333 per year), just to avoid stalling. One hopes we will be doing a lot more that that by then, but important to bring all aspects to the table, not just the positives.
Whilst it doesn't stall the growth of Fleet it does stall the revenue growth somewhat, and money may or may not be tight at that point.

I think you have the maths wrong where you say the below.
You don't explain where you get the A$460 from, but I assume its from the yearly total of model A divided by 2 to give 6 months. I make that A$360.

1) model A , hardware cost built into the monthly fee = $A60pcm ($30pcm for monitoring and A$30pcm for hardware over 3 years)

2) Model B, hardware cost paid upfront and the a lower monthly fee = $A30pcm

3) Overall blended rate , 16,000 * A$60pcm + 4,551 * $A$30pcm = A$13.2m recurring

4) H1 numbers for Fleet are therefore
16,000 * A460 * 6 = $A5.7m
4,551 (spread across 6 months ) * A$30 = A$1.7m
4,551 * A$1k (hardware paid upfront) = A$4.5m

Total Feet H1 = A$12m

S2020 writes

3) We will win RFQ

- he doesn't say we EXPECT RFQ results, much stronger language than that

"Seeing Machines continues to see, and respond to, a rich mix of OEM opportunities across the world with both existing and new customers, and EXPECTS to be successful on a number of RFQs over the calendar year."

My capitals above
Both sentences say EXPECTs, how do they differ, and how does the second sentence justify saying
" We will win RFQ "

Pleas explain, how you come to this conclusion?

When I first started to read this board, I found your posts both useful and informative. Its now very clear to me that they are dangerous and completely over optimistic. They are dangerous because you managed until recently, to convince most that you know what you are talking about, and your forecasts should be taken seriously. Many are now wising up to your ramblings.

I won't list the numerous issues I have with the rest of your post re the trading statement, other than it's such a climb down to some of the stuff you have previously written,. as I'd only be wasting my time. That's because after my 1 single post which challenged, your expectations of the trading update, you decided to filter me. My post has now been proven to be correct, but lets not let that get in the way of you continuing to ramp, to your army of followers lapping up your every word.
You disappeared for nearly a day, buy normal service is now resumed.

-

I promised a Fleet update based on KM travelled, and my limited data collection from early Jan.
I've been somewhat worried about the up coming trading update meeting revenue expectations, and having expressed my worries, was dissed by those board members who don't like posters who highlight any potential negatives.
I decided that rather than expend energy arguing with those set in their views and blinkered to any negatives, I'd do something more positive.
So thinking about the upcoming trading update it seemed to me that even if revenue numbers were missed (something I can't measure), as long as Fleet numbers were within or better than estimate, then the market would be much more forgiving, and possibly positive. Hence for now it seems to me Fleet numbers are very key.
So I started to collect the daily KM travelled data, and look at potential Fleet numbers and number growth.
So far I only have very limited data info to use, I believe others may have a lot more. So beware that conclusions from limited data could be flawed.

I've also decided to ignore the days in the week, where KM travelled is far less than the best days. So far it seems that Tuesdays, Wednesdays , and Thursday data is better to determine the total Fleet users, as other days have some weekend elements included which is less representative. (my guess). Again this may be flawed and flatter results.
I have no idea what an average KM per vehicle is, however I remember reading here that Seeing have suggested 250km a day is their estimate. I've produced results below of Fleet Vehicle numbers for 200, 250, and 300KM a day, and leave you to make up your mind.

Last week - If 200 = 31550 250 = 25235 300 = 21033
This week - if 200 = 32725 250 = 26180 300 = 21800

Based on the above I'm encouraged. If the figures can be believed it suggests to me currently we are somewhere between 22,000 and 26,000. It also shows an increase of approx. 800 last week, even using the 300KM figure (worse case) .

I'm not convinced the above can be relied on based on the limited data I have to date, the growth rate last week seems particularly high.
However it has done enough to convince me for now at least that Fleet is highly likely to meet current company estimates, and may well exceed those.
Given the above, I will wait for the update before making any further decisions on my holding. If the above is a likely indicator, then risk/reward is favouring reward.

Interested in others views, as to whether my data assumptions, in particular average KM travelled is in the right ball park, and whether only using the main driving days is indicative.

L

Bauch,
I'm travelling currently, so will try to provide a more detailed response tomorrow. However I've been watching the fleet km very closely since early Jan. Numbers are moving ahead quite encouragingly in the time I've monitored. I'll provide some proper figures tomorrow.
L

S2020,
Actually I turned up about 4 years ago, but didn't post just read what was out here.
I am as positive about the companies tech as anyone on here, however execution and management are needed no matter how good the tech. Too many on here are taking that for granted, and ramping the company beyond anything they have yet proven capable offdelivering. I'm very hopeful, but not convinced they can deliver in the way many suggest on here.
You are possible the worse culprit in this regard. Post a lot of good stuff about tech, but are a bit in the clouds as far as delivery is concerned.
No one will be more pleased than me if they do deliver, as I have a substantial holding.

L

Redindi,
Who is on the BOD will have little affect in a hostile takeover situation, only the share holders decision on whether to accept the offer or not will matter. The only key difference between UK and Aus takeover rules is that the bidder can only acquire 20% before having to go hostile , against 30% in the UK. Don't see it makes it that much harder, just may require a slightly better offer at the end of the day.
Anyone who thinks Lombard wouldn't accept 20p ie a 400% + profit in a matter of months doesn't understand how Institutions work.
I'm not saying this is going to happen, but if someone decides to have a go I think they would currently succeed at 20p.
They could definitely have mine.

L

Buffet,
Biggest load of bull, I've read for a while. Anyone comes in with a 10p offer, and this will be gone. Possible bidding war will take it to 20p and that's the end, Lombard or Aus government regardless. Some of you guys really need to get a grip with what may happen if a serious hostile bid appears.
Loads of buying currently, but someone out there is more than happy to offload at 5p. Be plenty more at 10 or 20 pence, that's for sure.

L