Member Info for Brockwl

S2020,
You are correct that Fleet has to date done the heavy lifting, but I believe you are wrong about what matters in the short term.
You are correct that Fleet generated A$40m revenue last year and auto sales was about A$5m.
However that total figure needs to reach A$90m to reach profitability.
In the next 2 years if Fleet continues with typical growth rates, I suspect that Fleet may increase from 40 to 45m, 50m at best.
Which means auto needs to go from 5m to 45m, which I had penciled in, although am now less optimistic, than I was.
So Auto really has to perform to hit these figures.
The above are my figures, however looking at Cenkos figures, they forecast after 2 years that Fleet increases 20%,
and auto 300%.
So not radically different from mine. They have auto slightly less than me and Fleet slightly higher .
Hence the reason I say its all about auto in the short term, is that, getting to profitability in the next 2 years, is only possible if Auto delivers.
Fleet is fairly predictable (given the level of recurring revenue) so I'm not concerned about it delivering what I expect.
But even if it seriously outperforms, while still aftermarket it can't solve the profit issues in short term

Lostinfrance,
You need to look at the KPIs again, as you are making the mistake of reading the KPIs the way the company wants, and ignoring the key elements, ie those which can be worked out from the figures presented, but not highlighted.

Currently they tell us how many cars are on the road and percentage growth, quarter on quarter.

This is a meaningless stat, which only looks good in the early days of ramp up. They will eventually do away measuring the growth element of this stat as it becomes meaningless with time.
Whilst I expect they will continue to advise total cars since inception, they will drop the growth indicator for the following reason.
Q4 was 447K - Q1 was 560k which they present as 25% growth.
In 2 years time when we have 15m on the road and they increase this by 250k that's about 2% increase.
Not great is it??? and yet 250k is much better than the 112k increase last quarter that was shown as 25%.
Its supposed to be a growth stat, yet by its nature it can only decrease over time no matter how well they perform.
Expect the company to remove this stat at some point soon, and replace it with a figure which shows growth from quarter to quarter sales.

Q3 to Q4 was 105K sold
Q4 to Q1 was 112k sold
Which works out at 6% growth quarter on quarter. That is the key figure, and not the one they currently present.
I fully expect this to replace the existing growth stat, once the figures start to look better, and the other figures look worse as they can only do.

6% per quarter is about 30% yearly growth and no where near enough to reach profitability quickly enough.

Glandore,
Assuming Fleet continues at current roll out pace and little happens with Aviation, then auto needs to do the hard graft.
I calculate the following.
1. Get to profitability - 2.5m auto units a year
2. Profit levels that support a much higher market cap - anything above 8m auto units a year would see the shares re-rate if that hadn't already happened.

Last quarter was 112K auto units, so currently averaging about 450K a year based on end September figures.
How quickly we move from 450K to 2.5m is anyone's guess.
But I expect it to happen during July 2023 to June 2024.Financial Year, based on previous company indications.
It's understanding how quickly things move from it being an optional installation to standard. Clearly we are still in the optional phase.
KPI's going forward will be key to showing whether the significant jump in numbers is occurring. At least one of the next 4 Quarters needs to show a very big jump. Which is why I was disappointed with the latest KPI figures.
We need to see auto increases far greater than the 6%, they delivered last quarter.
50% is the minimum we need to start to see.
For me unless they pull a rabbit out of the hat, the short term is all about auto.
Auto should be what makes the market wake up to this company, and guarantee it's success initially.
I'm not discounting the other arms, but they will take longer to become trans formative

GLA

Seize,
Boom is right, it's not massive, and never will be. As usual you ignore better informed posters, and continue to ramp and post anything and everything about see. Most of the time it's not even us.
Give it a rest for God's sake.
Leave it to those who at least understand the company.
In the main this board is a good source of information, let's keep it that way.

It's AUD
From memory I'm sure he said 60 direct, and 40 indirect.
From the last set of figures I've got it averaging about 42, but that should increase with more direct.
As of today I've got 22m recurring revenue from Fleet.

Chutz,
I don't disagree with your figures, they match mine.
However making comparison to September is not a fair comparison.
For some reason September was a low mileage month, and August was higher, so is a better comparison to measure growth. Your figures could suggest impressive growth, when it's more like ok growth.
My figure suggest we have seen another 2000 installs, taking us to 43415, from the end Sept figure of 41415.
So currently doing about 1000 a month
In 2021 we did 10,000, this calendar year we are at about 7500, and will likely finish at 8500, due to supply issues.
So 1000 a month, is definitely growth on any historic figures. However Cenkos think we are going to do 24500 this financial year.
Which I calculate means we have 7 months to do the remaining 20,000.
So we need to start to see months that average almost 3000.
Not expecting that to happen in December, but would want to see it moving by January for that to be a realized prediction.

That wasn't the impression I got from the latest presentation on vox.
Said something like we now have the stock so nothing to hold back sales.
That's very different to already sold.

Apologies for my maths this morning, which hasn't been great.
I said auto went from 108k to 112k which was about 3% increase.
Reading the Cenkos note it's actually 6%, as it went from 105.5k to 112k

Always happy to admit when wrong.

S2020,
Thanks for that. Interesting positivity. Especially the confirmation they still believe 24500 fleet Installations May be conservative. hope they are right.

Phil,
You can't compare the installs this quarter with the q1 figure last year.
That q1 figure last year wasn't what they installed in q1, but what they installed since the beginning of time. So not a fair comparison.
Against last quarters installs we have improved Installations by 3 to 4 %.
Which is poor when needing yearly 100% + increases.
I'm surprised the share price has held today, given the KPIs.
Especially given the next KPIs will be poor again for Fleet, as the stock won't have arrived in time to help for the current quarter.
I decided to sell the shares I bought recently at 6p, given I'm not convinced where the price is going in the short term.
Only about 4 % of my holding
I'll hold the rest for now, and hope the next auto figures are much better.

Just realised I made a massive error 're Auto figures.
Due to The way that display them.
Latest is increase of 112k against 108k, Which is very disappointing.
Way short of my 150k.
Very very disappointed, and need to have a serious think about this.

Pretty much as I expected and predicted in my previous posts when sharing my predictions.

Aftermarket

Very disappointing as expected.
Even less than the 2500 to 3000 I predicted.
Still no stock at that point so no new sales.
A long way from Cenkos's 24500 for the year, which I said was way off the mark.

Auto
I said 150000 was a solid performance. Although I don't think I said an upper end my but was 200000 was very good.
They have actually done over 180k is isn't bad at all.
If they can continue that rate of growth, ( and I believe they can)
Then we should get close to the 1.2m I have in my model for this year.
Centos have 0.9m in their forecast.
That would almost guarantee that the 2.2m they needed in the following year for breakeven. Given the expected growth in auto from company forecasts and committed sales.

So Whilst aftermarket is disappointing, I see it as overall on track to very slightly ahead.
Aftermarket will improve on the 3rd quarter.

Nothing to do with Magna deal.
I'd guess the fund is suffering receptions like most others and needs the cash, hence a forced seller.
However Michael Brown there representative on the board is now buying more for himself.
Previously he was limited to what he could buy as his total, gets added to the funds total for reporting purposes because he is associated.
Previously that total was just below the 20% limit, which meant he couldn't buy more, without takeover issues.
Now they have sold down to 15%, he can buy what he likes.

Escovidio,
"Surely previous slow down was due to chip shortage which is now sorted"

It was caused because they had to redesign out 3 capacitors in the unit, which went from $1 to $150 each, and made the unit too expensive.
The new units are expected shortly.
None of this really caused a massive installation slow down. The company only failed to supply 2000 orders.
So not expecting lack of supply to have caused a massive difference. Hence the Cenkos forecast seems very optimistic.

Terry,
"He must have a reason to say 24K & he was out for lunch or dinner with Paul, not us lol"

Sorry Terry no way that Paul would have provided those sorts of figures. They are all estimated forecasts from Cenkos.
Last year they estimated 15000 connections against the 8000 delivered. So, they have history in over estimating aftermarket.
This year it's 24500. which by my calcs suggests we have less than 8 months to install 20500, and most of those units won't be available until later this year.
Let's see what the quarterly KPI says, but I'll be surprised if more than 3000 have been installed.
I'd also be willing to bet we don't get close to 24500.

Despite downgrading 2023 connected guardian installs, Cenkos still expect 24500
Connections this financial year.
Previous best is 8000.
Whilst we may beat 8000, given the 12700 already supplied. I can't see us getting any where near 24500.
Mileage figures suggest we have increased install base by 4000 after 4.5 months.
So not encouraged we will get anywhere near Cenkos forecast.
No idea why they have gone that high.
KPIs may well result in Cenkos downgrading aftermarket revenue.
However I'm hoping they have been too cautious 're auto, and may have to increase there.

S2020,
Be careful about expecting to see 10m this FY.
From memory the deal was struck in October some 4 months into the year.
So I'd guess only 8 months of the 10m is actually due this year.
Note they only show about 15 to 16 of the 17.5m over the 3 years they cover, because they have likely put the remainder in year 4. (Not shown)
No idea if the company has guided them here on the yearly splits, or they have guessed, but more likely guided.

Interesting read, which I see as a bit of a mixed bag.

The words are singing and endorsing the company position, strategy, and potential.
However the financial forecasts appear to have gone backwards especially in the early years.
Such that they now show profitability coming in 2025 rather than 2024.
Despite results being 20% above their previous forecasts, and well above the companies forecasts. They appear to have decided to adjust future year forecasts to match company expectations.
As a result financial forecasts are somewhat softer, and further out.

Unfortunately I suspect the market will be led by the figures rather than the words.

The new quarterly update is due in November, which we have been promised will contain the following KPI information. The below example is the provided from the recent 22FY results.

- Guardian connections of 39,832, a 5% increase (Q3FY22: 37,791)
- Backlog to Guardian Connections of 10,706 units to be installed
- Cars on road increased by 31% to 447,225 (Q3FY22: 341,000)

I’m not expecting it to contain much more other than the above.

The above indicates that Q4 Auto units sold was 106,225. So, we have a quarter on quarter, figure to use as a measure going forward.

Thought it might be interesting to put out there, my minimum expectations for the Q1/23 numbers

- Guardian connections of 41500, a 4.1% increase (FY22: 39,832)
- Backlog to Guardian Connections of 11,000 units to be installed
- Cars on road increased by 33% to 597,225 (Q3FY22: 447,225)
Quarter on Quarter increase of 41% to 150,000 against (Q4222: 106,225)

Based on previous experience and mileage figures, I think the first 2 are fairly predictable, and will be fairly close. However, Auto is harder.
I’m hopeful that the Auto figure is even higher, however it needs to be around this figure if we are to meet the yearly expectations being set.
GLA

Dan,
That's a good question, and I don't know for sure. However the demo shown at the recent town hall, gave each occupants name as one of the features.
I can only guess that the software assigns these from a facial rec database on board. Which suggests to me the potential exists, and may already be proven.

Just because you don't want to sign up for DMS monitoring, (I fully get that),
doesn't mean we don't get paid for our software,as I understand it.
Your not being asked to subscribe to DMS, it's things like supercruise and bluecruise where subscription services come in to play.
DMS is mandatory ish, and like seatbelts you don't pay a subscription for them.

Soul,
If it fails in 2020, then he's given another chance in the following year for 50% of the shares. So because 2021 was successful the 2020 must also qualify being a lower price.
It's explained under the terms amongst those pages.
I think pushing the 2022 ones out to 2023/4 is a bit of a liberty though.
Makes a mockery of the process, and doing everything they can to reward rather than use the performance benchmark they choose.