Member Info for Brockwl

Wouldn't get over excited about that increase.
Mileage increase suggests that we have a Fleet increase of 1500 in the last 3 months.
We should expect around 2600 if matching previous periods, before the supply issues.
So Fleet is still under performing. Although that's not that surprising.

Assuming that article is correct I'm very surprised that we are in 440,000 cars but only 40,000 GM cars. I'd have expected to have been in many more.
Makes me realize how little we know, as to where those 440,000 are actually installed.

Glandore,
Like you I am currently assuming nothing extra for BDMs or Aviation, as it's all too unclear. at this stage
It's pretty difficult to model future revenues, when unit numbers are so unclear.
However I have break even mid way through Financial year 2024, e.g. December 2024.
Where we differ on figures is the following.
I'm less optimistic than you re Fleet. It's been a serial under performer, in terms of revenue increases in virtually every year.
The reason for this is that there is only 2 ways for revenue to increase.
1. Sell more units than last year.
2. Get the units installed, so that incremental recurring monitoring revenue can begin.

In the case of 1, the increases have been small year on year.
In the case of 2 we suffer from extremely slow install rates (average 6 months). Not the companies fault, but still something which results in less and slower revenue streams.
In addition we suffer from a 2% churn rate . So need 2% to stay still.

As a result I have only assumed a AUD $9.5 increase from now until end 2024. Over 4m less than you.
*note Not sure how many spotted this but Fleet revenue actually went down this year by some $2m, as a result of the supply issues. They said the supply issue cost them 3.5m in delayed revenue. So assuming that had been recognized, revenue for Fleet would have been a $1,5m increase from previous year.

However re Auto I'm much more optimistic than you.
For 2023 I'm expecting 1M units sold
For 2024 I'm expecting 3.2m units sold.
So in 2024 that should be an addition $42m in revenue.

I've increased costs for 2024 by $2m . So make that $40.

Now those auto unit figures could be overly optimistic, but they were taken from a company presentation late last year.
Just after the Magna deal was announced.
So I hope I have got that right.

Paul has been saying 100% auto unit increase year on year for some time now. I'm fairly sure he knows it's much greater than that, but is being conservation for now.
Can't remember what our market share is predicted to be off the top of my head, but I'm sure over 40m is a rough figure by 2028.
Well you cant get to that figure from the 318,000 of 2022, just increasing at 100% year on year. So there will be some big jumps along the way.
2024 will be one of those.

Cheers

Soul,

There was nothing in that update which wasn't already conveyed at the results presentation or other earlier presentations.
They need to say something new to excite the share price.
Only people being impressed, are those that didn't watch those, or were asleep.

Great numbers, but significant cost headwinds approaching.
Lacks detail on how much those costs will be.
Fixed electricity contract ended June 2022. So incurring costs now.
I'm torn here until I can from an opinion on exactly how high those costs will be.

I doubt there was anything to announce. I suspect the team needed to be in Europe and London for business reasons and decided to take the opportunity to meet investors and do a presentation.
They were also due to present at another investor type meeting with other companies later in the week.
No idea if that is still going ahead.

revenue per unit can be calculated from various figures given in previous results or trading updates.
FY 2021 was $17.67 AUD
FY2022 was $17.13 AUD

Other presentations have also opportunities to do similar calcs.
Magna in particular was easy as revenue and units were given in a previous presentation, and doing a quick divide gave a figure, which I have no longer have.
However various inferences have suggested anything from 12 to 20 AUD $, depending on what was delivered.
The figures from previous results look the most reliable though.

"More than 75,000 customers have enrolled in Ford BlueCruise and Lincoln ActiveGlide, up 13 percent from July, with more than 16 million hands-free miles accumulated"

Very interesting stat from that article on Fords facebook page. I'm assuming that all of these will be ours, (please correct if wrong).
Based on the volume projections from a previous SEE presentation, I had approx 1m auto units for this financial year.
However this suggests that Ford alone will be at least 750,000, and may be more.
I've only multiplied the 75,000 in August by 10 months to be a little conservative, as I have no idea what are the big selling months in the US. However the take up rate may continue to rise a little month on month.
This suggests that SEE may beat my 1m guess, when you add in GM and others.
I have them hitting break even at about 2.5m auto units a year. Which I am expecting them to easily beat in the following year.

LTJbuk please continue to post the links for future months, should be a good indicator of progress.

Also 75.000 was nearly 50% of Fords overall sales. So currently 1 in 2 is taking BlueCruise etc. Which is also encouraging, as it may not be available in all trims.

I see all this as very encouraging, and indicates SEE are at worse hitting expectations, and more likely doing better than that re auto.
It tends to confirm that break even will at the latest, occur around mid way through the next FY (ie by December 2024). However it raises the possibility of that coming earlier.
All the above re break even only assumes revenue from Auto and Fleet Aftermarket.
Nothing in for anything else, so anything else would add to the upside, and bring things forward.

GLA

Sgreen,
There was a graph from presentation late last year which allowed the increases to be worked out.
They were
2023 *3
2024 *2.1
2025 *5
2026 *0.65

2025 is the big year.

I agree auto is the big prize, but it won't be so rewarding if we have to do another diluting placing.
Fleet is key as to wether that is needed or not.
Try and make a point without the finishing insult next time, you'll find you are taken more seriously.

Actually Fleet is worse than it looks because of the 8100 increase they did 5216 in the first half.
So even with the Shell contract they only managed 2900 in last 6 months.

I'm amazed cash burn was not more. As Chutz says not holding inventory has helped a little.

But it doesn't state when we Will have stock either.
Currently 2000 orders go unfulfilled.

Lewbo,
You could find a positive in anything.
You say sales continue, nothing stops.

I think you will find revenue stops, which is pretty much all that matters.
Plus at least 1m lost in monitoring receipts for ever.

Yes apologies fleet supply fixed end of year.
Still a negative though just as they finally get some momentum.

Only see this as slightly positive.

Negatives

Slight revenue miss, despite saying it's inline.
Fleet supply chain issues which won't be properly fixed until June 2023.

Positives
Cash burn less than expected at 20m, suggesting they can make profitability before running out.
8100 fleet Installations is good
Fleet at manufacture looking closer.

Neutral

Auto.

Whilst I agree it's acceptable accounting practice, with this type of company I'd much prefer if it went through the P +L.
With technology companies it's an ongoing expense, which will continue year after year.
Capitalizing it just hides it and makes it harder to determine if and when they are actually profitable.
Now I'm aware that they have started to do this I can see that the cash left is going to be tight.
They have 79m left at December 21 and are likely to burn 45 to 50m this year.
The following year they will need another 20m before they start to break even.
This doesn't include any thing for 3rd party licencing they may need.
So I can see it's going to be a close run thing for cash and wether they need more.

Glandore,
You comment about burning A$23m in the previous 6 months, made me take a look at what the position might be, as that seemed much higher than the figure I had in mind from memory.
I can now see why.
I had used the overall loss for the period, as the number to use for cash burn, which was A$13.6m.
However on checking the results RNS, you can see that it does also show that they:-
raised 55m after costs, which resulted in a
Net increase in cash and cash equivilants 32m.
55m - 32m is indeed 23m.
Can anyone explain how the profit and loss shows a loss of 13m, but cash went down 23m?

I was expecting a similar 13m loss for this half and cash burn to be the same, which would mean they had more than enough to reach profitability. However If that wasn't the case last time, why would it be the case this time.
Appreciate any answers fro someone who understands this better than me.

Cheers

Lots to like, let's hope results are as positive. Presumably they wouldn't get sucked into doing these videos unless they were 100% confident they will hit market expectations.
Very pleased that they have finally accepted that the market needs quarterly updates going forward.
Its a must for growth companies which have yet to reach profitability.

With all the issues in reporting fleet mileage over the last year. It's almost impossible to know what the position is currently.
Mileage has only recently recovered to the October/November 2021 levels, when they lost input from a large chunk of the installed base.
Since then some came back, so figures from this avenue just can't be relied on, as we have no idea how many still remain lost and not counted.
However looking at the increase from that point, I'd hazard a guess that they have added at least 8000 units. Higher end might be 10000.

GLA

Though I made that pretty clear.
There shouldn't be a need for a further raise, but the share price action is very concerning.
Costs have also risen, as the opportunities increase.
So whilst a year ago I thought this very unlikely, I'm no longer so sure.

Quite a few hoping for us to be listed on Nasdaq recently. Which would just be another raise in disguise.
I wouldn't want to see that at these prices.

Basically there are more sellers than buyers, which at this price is very concerning.
Has all the signs of a cash raise coming and those in the know selling.
I very much hope not, but fail to see how else we can be this low.