Member Info for Brockwl

You don't think it's possible other DMS options won't have been integrated into Qualcomm ride by 2024?

How can you know the size of order book if it's an option.
Plus it's 2 years away.
They can make a good guess, but not sure they want competition to know value and volumes because then they know unit price. Why disclose that before they need to.

I'm not sure what they can tell us that they haven't already.
They have said we are in Qualcomm.
However Qualcomm ride will be an option on most trims, and then not until 2024.
Take up of those options is unknown.
Until it becomes mandatory, volumes are unclear. By then Qualcomm ride may have other DMS options integrated.
I think you just join the dots and say they are in a great position.I
I think only thing they could say in an RNS is we note the announcement from Qualcomm today which xxxxxxx

With CES starting tomorrow this is definitely not the day to be selling.

18.5p 21p spike

These people are not only key to the companies success, but the software developers and technicians, will likely have very scare skills, and knowledge that others would love to acquire.
Would be very easy to head hunt these types of personnel and trump their existing salary, as it stands.
Unless you have ever been in this position in an IT type environment, you truly wouldn't understand just how key they are,
during the formative phases of a tech companies growth.
A very few may be impossible to replace.
Whilst its impossible to tie people to a company, this is a bloody good attempt at doing that.
If you think the company has a great future, the fear of missing out on these rewards, is a great way of retaining staff, and hopefully providing a suitable reward at the same time.
If the future is bleak it doesn't matter anyway.

Losing a number of these key staff could easily put you back anything from 6 months to a year, and in a fast moving technical area, that could be our complete technical advantage over competitors lost.

Seems a very sensible move to me. Very impressed in how this is being run, since Paul joined.

GLA

Sgreen,
"That's 18m units based upon current RFQs in bid.

If you look at the other chart, there are RFIs that haven't been added to that number yet but are visible plus expected growth in RFQs, leading to give or take 43m units @$20 a pop e.t.c.

That gives a different picture."

That's correct and that's the potential upside I mentioned. However I want to know how safe the money I currently have invested is, before I consider the potential. Too many blue sky aim companies disappoint and let down investors.

Using only the RFQs they have received, and actually exist, allows me to measure, that risk and reward balance.
Based on those calculations the money I currently have invested with the share price of 12p, seems relatively safe.
You can go on and do your equation to get ultimate potential reward, but I want to know that in a worse case scenario, will I get my money back.
This morning I convinced myself that I should.Taking in account that If something goes wrong I may have to wait a year or two, for that to be the case.
Share price may drift, while we await news that we actually won some of those RFQs. Anything can happen in markets.
I'll leave others to do the dream potential stuff and, just try and keep my feet on the ground for now.
Whilst I accept the potential is huge, sh*t happens, and I have too much invested here to not ensure as much as possible, my capital at this point is safe.

P.S I don't think they are RFI's, but clearly the companies best guess, based on their insider track.

Cheers

Somewhat disappointed with today’s presentation. Maybe that’s just me but come away feeling a little flat. Not surprised that it has done nothing to help the share price.
Can’t believe we are now in November and the latest update we have with Fleet is from 30th June.
Any way trying to be positive what have we learnt today, that we didn’t know yesterday.
1. They are now talking with someone about Guardian/aftermarket being installed directly during production. This is encouraging, but will be at least 2 to 3 years down the line.
2. Revenue mix is changing going forward from lower margin stuff to much higher margin stuff.
So when revenue increases, profit will increase by greater amounts until the lower margin stuff becomes insignificant.
I guess we should have known this , but it was reemphasized, and a new graph showing OEM revenue mix tries to illustrate, how this mix is changing.
3. Another new graph illustrates current automotive pipeline. Which I’ve tried to use to project future revenue/profit from.
A quick stab at that and just using 2027 as an example, (the peak year from those RFQs), gives the following.
I’ll round numbers for simplicity.
If anyone spots any mistakes please feedback.

18m units at A$20 a pop = A$360m.
Assuming margin of 90% = A$324m profit

I’ll assume we only win 60% = A$194.4m
Convert to £ = £105m

Now I accept by 2027 Fleet and Aviation will be making a significant contribution.
For now, I’ll be very generous and say £40m profit after general admin expenses.
I also accept that there may be a number of additional RFQs to add to the mix down the line.
However, using the £105m + £40m we get £145m in 2027.
Which if we assume a PER of 12, gives a MCAP of £1740, and thus a share price of 41.9p.
Clearly the above has a number of variables, which one could tweak to your own beliefs, however I think it illustrates the expectations the more realistic investor might expect. Also, note I haven’t included any risking discount that the likes of a broker would do.
The above helps me to rationalise my expectations going forward. As whilst a nearly 300% increase from here is very nice, one has to realise it will likely take 5 to 6 years to get there.
In addition there is the chance of some upside (more RFQs or Aviation contributions), or a takeout (in a shorter timeframe), against what appears to be significant reducing risk.
I’m extremely overweight SEE, with an average of 3.5p, and constantly review whether that should remain the case.
The above has convinced me to stay overweight for the time being, but also reinforced my view that some of the share price targets on here are grossly exaggerated.
However reducing risk is the key element to me remaining heavily invested.

Actually doing the maths, it's less than 10% dilution, at less than 10% discount. So based on the placing alone it should fall 1%.
So add the positives 're magna and it should go up.

Despite the positive elements of this, I'm still expecting the price to fall back tomorrow. Be lots of buyers at 11p possibly looking to flip at a profit. So it will need a little breather before moving forward again
However the market can be difficult to foresee sometimes, and maybe I'm completely wrong and we continue upwards.
Whatever occurs the news is positive, and I'd be a buyer of any pull back.

Nice to see Paul and Ken donating.

Jegward,
That's a complete misunderstanding of how the system works.
You would do what you are suggesting to avoid HMRC taxing you again I'd double taxation. HMRC will let you avoid tax if you're already paid abroad, but they will not rebate tax paid in another jurisdiction.

Seems to be a problem with the figures reported on the website. Been down about 30% each day for well over a week now.
Suspect the reporting mechanism is broken, and a region is missing each day.
Anyway it appears the only thing which we can use to measure progress is now not working.
Not ideal.

Given no one on here has any idea why the results are late, I'll ignore all the reasons suggested below and wait and see what happens.
Over the last few months posting here has been much more balanced, and realistic. Be nice if it could continue, rather than keep putting a gloss on every unknown.

Been waiting for the 10m, which has come a little earlier than expected.
I make it about 34500 Installations. So still nearly 2000 of the additional 5000 to install.
The last month has seen Installation rate increase above 1000 a month. Be interesting to see if that continues in November and December when they want trucks on the road.
The other interesting stat is that the fatigue inventions in the last 12 months has hit 200,000.
Not only is that a huge number of potential accidents avoided, but it works out at nearly 6 per truck a year.
Any potential buyer would be mad not to take a stat like that seriously. Plus that's the figure from trucks with guardian installed. I'd suspect non installed is worse.

What I really like about the fleet stuff now, given the size of the investment I've got here, is it takes a huge amount of downsize risk away.
What I mean by that is that whatever might go wrong with auto, there is another arm to the business which should support the share price.
We are rapidly moving to a business which has little downside risk, and large upside potential. Which is my idea investment.

For a lot of investors nearly 5 months to produce results would be a red flag.
6 months is an automatic suspension from Aim.
It really isn't that hard to get these out within 3 months, and suggests they lack financial control.
Whilst I don't believe that to be the case here, it can be very concerning when looking to attract new investors.

For a lot of investors nearly 5 months to produce results would be a red flag.
6 months is an automatic suspension from Aim.
It really isn't that hard to get these out within 3 months, and suggests they lack financial control.
Whilst I don't believe that to be the case here, it can be very concerning when looking to attract new investors.

MrBB,
There has been no mention of fleet being delivered via OEM, to my knowledge. That has always been wishful thinking on the part of some posters on here. I understand why people assume that given the regulations which will become compulsory over time. However it's never been mentioned as a possibility by the company.
Until I see something winch suggests this might happen, I'd assume that it must be some years away.
Whilst we may improve on the 20% for fleet with Shell. I'd guess the shell deal was done at quite a deep did discount. So great cudos, but no where as profitable as other fleet.

Depends how forward looking and believing the market is.
At A70m, which is £35m and still touch and go if we have reached break even. It may well think £350m market capitalisation is fully priced.
So we could still be at 10p. However if what we believe will happen happens from there then it must rerate.
No idea how the market Will play this next year, but happy to wait for 2023 when it should really start to fly.

Soulboy,
You can't straight line that 250m. It's more likely to be very back end weighted.
So for 310m would be 10m in year 1, 20m year 2, 40m, 80m, 160m in year 5.