Member Info for Brockwl

Q4 should show better than that, or it's below where we have been guided.

We already know that Europe will total 1.6m alone to meet regulations. Martin Ive comment in previous presentation. Given all European OEMs will need to be putting it in by April to guarantee cars sold in July meet the regulations we should have the full quota in Q4.

Add in the rest of world units, and I'd be very disappointed if will are not 1.8m to 2m in Q4.

Everything they have said recently suggests they expect 2m in Q4.

Coming to a compromise would result in heavy dilution yet again. So don't see that as a possibility.

If there was any chance of a compromise on a bond due in October, why are we agreeing finance by the end of June.

So far everything the company has said about paying back the bond, has only involved taking finance to pay them off. There has been no mention of anything else.

If you think Magna will take seeing machines shares at 11p, when they currently trade,at 4p you've lost all sense of reality.

What person in their right mind would spend 60m dollars buying shares that are only worth about 22m.

Certainly not a successful business like Magna. I can't believe you can even suggest it as a possibility.

ISB,

I think you are being overly pessimistic.

Remember they had a $14m windfall from a minimum guarantee of which a good portion will be shown in this year’s figures.

I’d also expect better than 1.8m, they have suggested 2m with growth going forward.

So I’d see next year averaging 2.2m at least.

FY26 should show a small profit overall, and FY27 between $30 and $40m.

The biggest problem here is the way they get paid for auto, in some cases it’s over 6 months they wait for payment. Sell something on Jan 1st, isn’t declared by customer until late April. Invoiced May and then 60 payment terms take us to July.

As a result, we need to get into using banks to pay the invoice up front, and lose a percentage.

Not the best business model for cash flow.

Yes excellent results with get another upgrade going forward.

I'm not getting the share price at all, so bought more this morning, even though I'm overweight.

Should be nearer £7+.

Full year looks like 70p at minimum, which at a per of 10 is £7. Plus nice dividend with a special.

I'll be interested to see how they go about paying off Magna.

So far they have said they will use finance and some cash in hand, with no dilution.

However the interest of the loan can be paid back at seeing machines election between cash and shares.

The limited detail the company has provided, gives the impression that using shares to pay off the interest, would be at the same price as the bond ie 11p.

Clearly if that were the case using shares to pay off the interest would make good financial sense even if there was some dilution.

Unfortunately I don't believe the full bond contract has ever been made public. So impossible to be exactly sure one way or the other.

Anyone know exactly what the position is?

Sorry,

Isb,

Yes sorry that was a typo. Should be 47m Profit which would support a share price of 8 to 12p.

I have total revenue at 124m against 77m costs. Hence 47m profit.

Revenue Auto 84.3m Fleet 39.5m

Isb,

Yes sorry that was a typo. Should be 47m Profit which would support a share price of 8 to 12p.

I have total revenue at 124m against 77m costs. Hence 51m profit.

Revenue Auto 84.3m Fleet 39.5m

I actually don’t think it’s been mispriced, apart from when it went to 1.7p

The market lost complete belief in management projections, because so many never materialized. However today sets a completely different tone.

Auto numbers surpassed my expectations, which is a first for SEE, so well done to the company there.

Clearly ramp up started earlier than most expected, given most OEMs previous reluctance to embrace the regulation.

Now they have no choice and couldn’t risk having cars without DMS sitting on forecourts with July approaching.

This now verifies all the predictions about 1.6m a quarter in Europe by July, and likely 2m worldwide.

Fleet was disappointing again.

However, with Auto now guaranteed to deliver at least as promised and possibly a little more, things are starting to look encouraging.

I’m a little disappointed with the muted share price reaction on today’s news, but suspect this was a little leaky and had been bought ahead of today.

Whilst the company isn’t normally leaky, I suspect debt negotiations for the Magna bond has meant they have had to disclose sensitive data to numerous parties, including these numbers.

If they can get Fleet to at least 6000 a quarter, they can break even this year and do $80m profit next year. That suggest a share price of anything between 8p and 12p being conservative. If they can also demonstrate further growth to come it could go higher.

I bought more this morning as I think this must rerate at least 50% once we get the next KPi’s, and although I’m very over weight here, don’t see much else about that provides 50% potential in 3 months with little risk.

I’ll hold the existing core holding and new purchases until we know the next numbers.

Good luck all

Jimmy,

Martin I’ve said that Q1 numbers would be 3.5-4 times the Dec quarter, so I’m guessing at 1.5-2 million units.

That's not what was said.

They said 3.5-4 times over next 2 quarters. So 2 million is at least another quarter away.

After that it's back to slow growth without any regulatory tailwind to help.

not sure what you think will be 20 to 30 million

At least 50% of the buys Friday will likely have been traders buying ahead of kpis.

Given most of them will be looking to sell into whatever the news, the KPIs will need to be pretty decent to attract enough buyers to keep this rising.

I'm hopeful that is the case.

I million would definitely be enough. 800k would probably be enough for the price to hold.

Poor numbers will see this back to where it has come in short order.

Based on the last quarters numbers, one would assume by December we were at 200k a month.

Knowing that March should be close to full regulatory rollout (400k a month) Even taking a pessimistic view

Should see 800k ie 210k Jan, 225k Feb, 370k March = 805k

A lot will depend on the ramp up that occurs in Jan/Feb, and how early OEMs have implemented for regulations.

Of course it's profit taking. I'm amazed it reached £3 and I sold out at £2.83.

Reason being there will be a reality check at the next results.

Expectations are for revenue and profit to be slightly lower than last year, which doesn't marry with recent price action and a per which reached 50.

I expect this to go much lower once those results are released.

Isb,

What he was saying with that,statement was that over the next 2 quarters, we can expect a 3 to 4 times increase.

So when they release the June figures in July/August they expect to be doing 1.8m as a minimum.

One shouldn't suggest that will occur this quarter.

This quarter could be anything from 800k to 1.2m.

"VW CEO on Bloomberg just said their market share is up and they don't see any supply constraints at the moment."

Sounds good until you read they are also shedding 50,000 jobs. Not all sweetness and light out there clearly.

Key takeaways for me are the following random thoughts.

Auto royalty ASP (average selling price) has declined to $9.01) courtesy of safestocks quoting from Stifle note. My calcs show it at $9,43 at last results.

However recent presentations declaring minimum guarantees, suggest that may have been inflated unknowingly.

However, whatever I had previously now needs to be the lower Stifle figure. So that’s another 5% drop in what I had for potential revenue. Given we are now at breakeven and its high margin business you can assume future profit is also 5% down

They are planning to introduce a receivable funding facility.

Well that won’t be free, so I’d assume another 3% off revenue and profit.

So that’s 8% less profit going forward in the short term, and 5% longer term, assuming the funding facility is a temporary measure.

Every time they announce results or trading updates, I seem to have to adjust my financial model down further, due to more unforeseen costs.

Going forward I’m thinking I need to apply a discount figure to cover all the unexpected delays/disappointments, and see if the expected future share price warrants the investment after the discount.

Currently applying 50% discount it just passes what I would see as acceptable, however it’s becoming less attractive by the day.

I see they say that the build of G3 inventory cost $5m, but should unwind in the second half. I wish they wouldn’t try and spin stuff like this suggesting it’s a temporary cash flow issue and we will get the money back.

We will always need G3 inventory, and whilst we may get money back as we sell, surely that stock will need replacing. If it doesn’t it only suggests that sales are not happening.

I’ve tried to find something positive, but don’t see anything that wasn’t business as usual and to be expected.

Next known news will be the H1 results, which although they have been well telegraphed by the trading update, will just repeat the disappointment again.

Maps,

like many on these boards your convinced anyone who alternates between negative and positive views must be a trader. It couldn't possibly be that this companies prospects have changed from good to bad month to month, numerous times.

You only see the end game and that's total success for the company, so constant delays and missed targets mean nothing to you.

But to others there are a million reasons why we go from negative to positive and negative again, and it's not in the hope we can manipulate others and trade the share.

maps,

so far my reading of the company position, research, and immediate future prospects has resulted in me being 100% in profit.

how's that working out for your " head in the clouds" and never selling view that this will multibag so far.

the difference between my real world down to earth view and your, "this can't fail approach" is that if it goes wrong i'll be out with original stake intact.

if it multibags i'll still be in and benefit equally to you.

so many on here have no idea what profit this could generate, but just go with a gut feel view that if they can dominate the market they must be worth billions.

take a look at the consensus analysts reports on the company website. it shows 2027 profit at 14.6m dollars.

that's not this year it's next year when it's benefited from a full year of the euro gsr mandate.

hardly suggesting as some on here do, that we should already be a 500 million dollar company and be trading at 8 to 10p. you can complain all you like but the market has got the share price about right in my opinion at the moment.

everyone should do some financial calculations, even if it's only back of *** packet ones. it's a basic fundamental for any investor. try it, it might wake you up. don't bother adding anything for robots though.

Maps,

Please stop talking utter rubbish. Why would Peek Hunt upgrade when volumes were below expectations.

They will have had an expectation of volume and it won't have been less than the 578k they reported.

So there is nothing there for them to be able to upgrade, other than Maps thinks they should.

If you are lucky they may maintain their current target price, on the basis that it's the next 2 that really count.

Finally, we get some explanation on how the Minimum Guaranteed Volume revenue works

It appears we have been receiving this for some time, but Q2 quarter volumes were all above these numbers so no extra payments will need to be received for Q2.

They view that as a positive, as an indicator that OEMs have finally caught up and reached what See expected as a minimum volume at this point in time.

I agree it is a positive, but it’s a low base one, as we have only just passed the minimum expected.

Whilst the concept seems relatively easy to understand, it’s never been clear whether the extra payments were seen as credits towards future volumes, or just penalties for not meeting the expected volumes.

For instance, if the minimum was 10K each quarter and they did 8k first quarter and 12k next. Do they pay for 10K in the first quarter and 12K in the second, or 10k in the first quarter and 10k in the second because they are 2K in credit from previous minimum guarantee’s.

Now, whilst they haven’t explicitly explained that level of detail, the explanation gives me the impression that the money paid for minimum guaranteed doesn’t act as a credit, and works more like a penalty.

Love for that to be confirmed, but, if true that’s very good, and has been very useful extra revenue during the endless delays that have occurred, plus served as an incentive for OEMs to actually get on with it.

Also be nice to understand over what period these minimum guaranteed payments are measured. Is it each quarter, half year or per year? A question for the next Investormeet presentation I think

However, it’s made me realize that any calculations I’ve done on Auto unit prices, and used in my financial model can no longer be relied on. They will be inflated, as the minimum guarantee revenue is never disclosed as a separate item in the accounts, and needs to be deducted to get a true unit price valuation.

So, my future valuations are slightly inflated and need to be reduced yet again.

I can only do this accurately once we have some proper results, where guarantee minimums are not triggered or get disclosed as a revenue item.

I get the incumbency point, which should be a positive and hopefully that will make up the difference due to a lower Auto unit price.

We shall see.

Numbers definitely at the low end of my expectations. I'd also question the breakeven in December statement.

What always surprises me here is that those who think this is going to a £1 are so pleased with very average numbers, which will struggle to hold 4p.

Yet those who expect far less are disappointed. Doesn't make much sense.

Don't see the share price making any headway from here, until some positive news drops, and I doubt the trading update will be that.

I'm currently a very weak hold, waiting for the next 2 kpis.

There will be nowhere for management to hide when we get those. I suspect the price will drift down further until then.