Member Info for Brockwl

I'm guessing what they are trying to convey with that statement is that whilst they received no minimum guaranteed payments this quarter, they have previously.

Hence revenue from auto numbers is ahead of the actual numbers shown as sold.

But the fact that they don't quantify that makes it fairly meaningless.

Also that whilst previously we have been below the minimum guaranteed number, this month went above it. Suggesting take up is finally increasing to above their minimum expectations.

Whatever the reason for the statement, they should spell it out, not leave people guessing. Bad comms again.

No doubt it will be cleared up in an interview.

750k auto and 6000 fleet were per quarter figures for break even.

They have only said they were breakeven for December.

That would suggest they hit 250k auto and 2000 fleet for December.

My guess for quarter figures would be

Auto 650k fleet 5000.

Which won't set the share price alight, but should provide support until the inflection we expect over the following 6 months.

Much less and the breakeven statement will get questioned.

Boycee,

Yes you have the wrong end of the stick.

The 2 things are completely separate and not connected, just very coincidental.

The company raised £130m and now Orion want to sell 13m shares.

I suspect they saw that the companies placing was over subscribed, and have decided to that advantage of that and the fact that the price is currently strong.

Not ideal to have all these shares looking for a new home, as it takes buyers out of the game.

I suspect it might keep a lid on the price for a while. But who knows?

The actual dilution here was less than 1% on the whole market cap. So that's what an efficient market should apply here. So a fall of 10p would be about right.

Clearly it's currently more than that as a number of those that already hold and subscribed, may be selling into a quick profit, and that needs to work through.

I doubt that will take too long.

But likely to occur again on the 2nd, when those who don't already hold do the same.

Although I suspect there are less of them.

They went from 1.7p to 6.3p in under 9 months. Whenever something does that it always gets overbought at some point.

Lots of people taking profits now CES finished, and immanent news less likely

It's all healthy price action, whilst we await the next news.

As long as auto delivers in Europe as they expect, 10p in August should he a racing certainty.

Which is why I haven't traded it this time. Don't want to miss that event.

Plus they now have the 14m, which will allow them to build some G3 inventory, without affecting breakeven/ profit.

All looking good to me, price action between now and then is just noise.

Aaroon,

Do you know where that shipment is destined for? Is it Aus?

I'm sure that resolved, doesn't mean paid off. It just means they know how it will he paid if needed.

Debt facility's in place etc.

Mike,

It's very unlikely they will clear the Magna loan in March. It's due to run until October and unlikely Magna will allow that to happen.

What may occur, is that come March they will know and have in place any options they need to enable repayment.

isb1974,

couple of things in response.

1. the auto break even number is 750k, not 700k.

2. i wouldn’t assume that because they were breakeven in december that they reached those sort of quarterly numbers.

they only indicated they reached breakeven in the december month which would suggest they hit 250k in december. but october and november were very likely lower.

in addition they have now received this minimum guarantee payment, which complicates and distorts the picture somewhat.

if you do a rough back of *** paper calculation, based on what they received for 4 years as stated. it works out at about 30k auto units equivalent a month.

so, assuming they won’t be adding the minimum guarantee units they didn’t sell to the kpi totals, a 660k kpi could actually be considered as really being 750k units, in financial terms.

ie 750k minus the 90k which they were paid for but didn’t actually sell, and therefore can’t count.

so, if we assume december was 220k (250k – 30k) and october and november were 180k each. we could get a total of only 580k. but still have reached the breakeven figure due to the guaranteed minimum fee, making up for the reduced auto units.

as a result i’m not expecting anything above 600k for the next quarters figures.

if this turns out to be the case i hope they explain why it’s less than expected, to the market in a way they can fully understand.

My understanding of Qualcom’s snapdragon ride is its like an operating system/central engine for all the cars ADAS software, and maybe more. Stand alone it comes with no DMS function, ie Qualcom don’t have one and don’t intend to develop one. So Qualcom allow 3rd parties to add their DMS software to the snapdragon solution.

See added our DMS to the Snapdragon stack quite some time ago now, Possible 2 years back. But unclear to me whether any others have gone through the process with Qualcom to add there’s. There is a process that needs to be gone through.

Thus, a tier 1 choosing snapdragon, then selects whichever of the DMS options that exist.

Whilst we were the first to onboard with Snapdragon I doubt we are the only one now.

So when using Snapdragon See DMS is definitely an option, I don't know if there are any others yet.

Esc,

I believe its the CEO of MADD (Mothers against Drunk Drivers)

Valueformoney,

Hi Aspers, would you share how you got to 50p?

As Aspers has declined I'll have ago, even though that is further out than I'm currently looking.

Lets assume that Fleet G3 continues at 6000 a quarter

We know auto 2m cars a quarter is on the cards from April 2026.

Plugging all that in gives a share price of 7p at PER of 10 and 11p at per of 15 (per of 15 is more likely given the pace of growth that's likely to occur)

If FY 2027 doubles Auto from 8m cars to 16m, you get 26p at a per of 15. (17p at PER of 10)

If FY 2028 then increases to 24m you get 44p at a PER of 15.

By that time other stuff like aviation could have started to produce decent revenue, and G3 may kick in heavily, which would add to the above. Also if growth as described is achieved a PER of 15 may be conservative.

So you can see how 50p could be achieved with the right execution, and staying ahead of the game.

Maps,

No one sprouted nonsense on here yesterday, they just pointed out ambiguities that arose from the RNS.

I'm happy to say he's cleared up those ambiguities, and everything sounds extremely positive.

Who knows the doubts on here and the share price drop may have been the reason they decided to do the interview and clear this up.

Anyway glad they did, might even buy some more now.

Sipps,

Very interesting. Lays out the case very well.

Most of which I can buy into.

Schlemiel,

It's nothing to do with the convertible bond.

Clearly this contract was no longer needed by the tier 1 for whatever reason.

But it would have stayed on their balance sheet, for a number of years, and They would have had to declare the liability in dollars as worse case Most companies don't like stuff like that on their balance sheets.

If you have ever been made redundant, typically the company will over an extra inducement to you, if you waive all your rights, to claiming unfair dismissal etc.

They do that because otherwise, they have to recognise a liability in their accounts, for as long as you are able to sue them. Typically at least 3 years from memory. They also have to show that liability as worse case financially.

They could he quite a lot if you won the case.

I suspect there is an element of them not wanting this staying on their balance sheet, as they may have to show the liability in terms of us sueing them for breach of contract and winning.

Esc,

It's all a bit of a play with words. I'd agree with you that it's unlikely we were cash flow breakeven for December, as a whole month.

However we could be cash flow breakeven for the 31st December.

Stifle can't know for sure because the company wont even have all the auto KPI numbers just yet.

However given the $14m payment and any numbers they do have, they can properly be certain that we are cash flow breakeven from Jan 1st, and the company will likely have guided them on that.

Today's RNS mentions positive cash flow a couple of times, once saying 3rd Q ie Jan to March, and once saying early2026.

So it seems to me that whatever happened in December doesn't matter as from Jan 1st they are cash flow positive due to the $14m.

S2020,

You said - Brockwl, maybe read the RNS before "suspecting" incorrectly

I have - can you point me to the one that states that setting up the new unit won't incur any additional costs. I've yet to see a new unit that does.

They have stated they sent them to attend CES, so there is a new cost straight away.

As a minimum their will be some people costs here going forward.

I don't have a problem with that, but why do you have to keep disputing what is a logical outcome, when it doesn't fit your narrative.

Whenever anyone tries to give a balanced view, ie some positives and some negatives, you always have to attack the negatives regardless.

Doesn't help with proper discussion and dissecting the investment case at all. But maybe that's not what you want.

Private,

I had us down for a $5m profit for full year, so would expect this to mean that will be achieved comfortably now.

Half year could be anything up to $12m loss.

The big unknown is G3 hardware sales where I have assumed 6000 a quarter from December.

So assuming auto does the numbers they suggest and G3 is on track, we could make double figures profit ie 10m plus.

However I suspect costs will have risen again given how much is going on and setting up the new unit forward mobility.

What I will say on the positive side is that this is another big tick in the box for Martin. He outlined that we would receive 11m minimum service guarantees at the last presentation.

Not only has that come to pass, but he has under promised and over delivered.

Clearly he was being deliberately conservative.

I'm now hoping he's also being conservative with the auto numbers he outlined.

That should he started buying again after the town hall.