Member Info for Brockwl

Thanks aaron, useful info 're average unit price.

Just to be clear the 7.70 average price was for new units which take us from the position when this was stated (380k) to 750k.

For example they say 360k extra units needed to achieve 750k a quarter gives you 1m dollars a month.

Change 360k into monthly figure = 120k

1m / 120k = 7.7 per unit.

It suggests the newer units that take us to 750k average this price, only. The existing units will still be at 9.43.

I only did this calculation to sanity check that getting to 750k would give us an extra 1m. I don't always trust what I am told.

But in this case it seems entirely reasonable.

Bonzo,

I think you are wrong there.

See have some upcoming contracts in which they have negotiated a guaranteed minimum value or number of units, over the life of the contract.

It appears that the ones starting next financial year have a minimum guaranteed lifetime contract value of 43m.

As a result they intend to recognise all this revenue in the accounts next year. Because it's guaranteed!

However the customer won't be playing anything like that amount, and will only be paying for what actual units they use. This will more likely be about 5 to 10m in the first year. Martin outlined the likely amount recently, but I don't have the exact figure to hand currently.

He also explains that ebitda will reflect the 43m they have recognised but not received, and adjusted ebitda will reflect the actual amount received, and therefore depict the true cash flow position.

As I say I'm not an expert on this, but suspect it's going to muddy the accounts going forward, unless you fully understand all this stuff.

Wanted to sanity check my investment and what gets us to breakeven using the various published figures and presentation slides.

I also want to try and understand what the company issued targets are that get us to that point.

Had some time today so had a go, and thought it might be useful to others who are new or don’t fully understand this.

I think things are about to get more complicated with regard financials, now that these guaranteed minimum revenue contracts have started, and they intend to show the full minimum contract value as revenue, when they will only be actually receiving the much lower quarterly sales revenue figure.

I’m not an accountant, so find that stuff very confusing.

Most of this stuff is in the Town Hall Presentation, but there is a lot to take in from this and some of this stuff has passed me by.

Currently we are running at $1.9m a month cash burn.

It’s hoped that by end CY2025 this will become a slight surplus of 100K a month.

Cost savings are already incorporated into these numbers, so from here on in, reduced cash burn needs to be funded by increased revenue, and ultimately profit margin.

Of the $1.9m, they expect Fleet to cover $1m a month and Auto to cover the other $1m.

The magic unit numbers we need to reach for each is:-

Auto – 750,000 a quarter

Fleet – 2000 a month

By achieving these numbers we will have eliminated cash burn.

I’ve sanity checked the numbers associated with each of these, and they seem much as I would expect, albeit a bit lower than previous unit cost figures.

It may be, they are being conservation in some way, alternately prices are reducing a little as volume increases. Price decreases are my biggest worry, as this eats into margin, and ultimately long term profitability.

So, can they hit those numbers?

To be honest it doesn’t seem too difficult. I’d expect at least 700K auto units by December Quarter, which would suggest that the Month of December would have done 250k, which would be at least 750K a quarter going forward.

Martin suggested Fleet would reach 2000 units a quarter by September in one recent interview, so that could reach target early. However, supply seems to be the risk here, with the latest presentation suggesting they still hadn’t reached full production of just over 2000 units a month. They gave no clue as to how close they now were, or when it would be achieved, so it’s still a slight risk.

Results won’t tell us much more than what we already know re the future, it’s all about the KPI’s for now.

750K Auto and 2000 Fleet is what is required. Let’s hope we finally deliver on a market expectation.

For those interested in the detailed calculations, based on their expectations of 750K auto and 2000 Fleet adding 1m each to the bottom line it comes out as below.

Fleet $500 profit per unit sold, and $27.5 a month monitoring per unit.

Auto revenue of $7.70 a unit, which is lower than the $9.43 I have from historical s

NT

Now you are saying it's royalties, rather than ARR which are completely different things.

It's clear you understand nothing about the financials and future revenue of the company.

I suggest you try and produce a future revenue and profit model. Whilst it may not be exact at least it gives you a basic understanding of the company fundamentals.

This seems to be missing from the majority of investors.

Well wherever you got it from, it's totally wrong.

ARR has been increasing about 1m a year, they would have to sell about half a million of G3 units to reach 9.5 x ARR.

NT,

He never said anything of the sort re recurring revenue, you need to rewatch the presentation.

nothing new in the TU numbers and monthly cash burn slightly worse than expected. Would be useful to know current monthly burn rather than previous 6 month average.

Surprised it opened up, but finished about right given news.

How do we know we are in Mazda and co-pilot?

I've never seen this announced

Great news if true

No it was 19% - my bad

Looks to me it's been taxed at 23% in the sipp.

Lordvm,

The divi n the sipp was there since the 31st. But it's in euros, so you have to change transactions to euros to see it.

This catches me out every time.

Big trade from yesterday just showed up. Clearly still a big seller around, for trades of this size to go through.

Feel this could move once they are done.

It looks to me that things are finally going in the right direction, and the expectations they provided at the Town Hall are in the main beginning to be delivered.

I’m beginning to feel more comfortable with their sales expectations both in Auto and Fleet.

KPI’s in Auto were pretty much as expected, and Paul’s now given a 700K to 750K a quarter figure by end of year. Given we have 3 new SOP starting between now and then that seems reasonable.

European OEMs needing to start installing at least 3 months prior to the regulations kicking in, also seems very believable, as expressed by Martin at the town hall.

So 2m a quarter by Mar/Jun Quarter next year also seems reasonable.

I got the impression that Fleet unit production has still not reached 6,000 units a quarter, which is what limited sales last quarter, and will likely be a slight drag this quarter. However, I’m only assuming G2 levels of sales and margins in my model until they prove G3 is different.

We know that they have stripped out at least $12m a year in costs.

So, for me the only remaining question is whether Auto margins continue to hold up, as sales increase.

As clearly, it’s no good selling twice as many, at half the previous profit margin.

For the last few years the margin has been about $9.43 per auto unit.

If that can be maintained, then everything looks very promising going forward.

Small profit next year and then approx $50m in FY2027, with the possibility of G3 boasting that if 6000 a quarter materializes.

Only the results will provide the auto margin information.

My main and probably only concern is that it reduces, as volumes increase. I suspect this remains the biggest risk now, as it’s not the sort of information they are very upfront about.

I guess what triggered my concern is that Martin mentioned they had started to receive minimum volume guarantees, and suggested that going forward they have the equivalent, of 1m units with one customer.

He said that was worth $7m, which suggests that is only $7 per unit. Significantly less than the $9.43 we have been used to seeing.

Because it’s a minimum volume guarantee, and only one customer, I’m not overly concerned, but if the margin reduces across the board, I’d be a little more worried.

Juries out on that currently, So for the moment I’ll remain positive, as things seem to be far more predictable going forward, than it has been previously.

Arun,

Perfectly summed up, absolutely spot on as to why we are where we are.

Well the auto figures finally match the rhetoric, but G3 is a little disappointing.

Given we were told in March they could produce and supply 6000, I was expecting something closer to that.

So either production wasn't quite up to speed or sales weren't there.

Should be enough to get us back to 3p. But further evidence required for a real rally.

If it all pans out as expected this could be the last chance to get in at these levels.

I'm reasonably happy but not ecstatic.

I have these in an isa and sipp with ii.

They have paid the isa but not the sipp.

Anyone received the divi in a sipp?

Dividend

Ii have advised via a corporate action notification that the civil has not been paid as the company have not yet released,the funds.

"The company explained this very clearly at the Townhall in April, it's the reason why they are expecting a 10x increase in quarterly "cars on the road", that's from existing programmes either already at SoP or entering SoP this calendar year"

Yes they did and it was the most significant statement from the presentation.

It's very very key to their medium term financial position, and probably the single biggest factor in the recent share price recovery.

If it pans out you and they maintain current margins I can see them delivering at least $35 to $40m profit in 2026.

Whilst most of this comes too late to cover the Magna convertible due date, of Oct 26, the Q4 25 and Q1 26 KPIs should demonstrate that repayment isn't a problem. Thus solutions will be more easily found.

Indeed by then the share price should have recovered significantly, providing further options.

Failure to deliver on this statement, will be punished by the market, in my opinion, and all integrity lost.

DR777

The point is he wasn't the one who gave them that reputation, I'm hoping what comes from him is more grounded. He's only focused on the numbers, and currently that's what's missing.

Unfortunately there is no doubt this has been an over promise and under deliver company, due to little of the RFQs and other stuff Paul highlights ever being delivered.

However this time around I bought back in on the numbers Martin expected in Europe alone due to the July 2026 regs.

If Europe does increase 10 times, from 160k a quarter to 1.6m by June 2026, giving an auto total of 2m a quarter,

That's 8m a year and revenue of 70 to 80m dollars. Which easily takes us past breakeven, and with just existing Fleet should show a decent profit. If G3 starts to deliver as well, then all worries are over.

I don't think he would be quoting those numbers, unless he was very sure about them happening.

Time will tell, and we might have another year to possibly wait, although it could become apparent sooner.