Member Info for Brockwl

Well, its 12 days since the Magna mirror exclusivity deal ended, and no news of an extension.

This comes as no surprise to the realists on here, who thought it unlikely. But will be another blow to those who thought this an absolute certainty, and there were quite a few.

Clearly 3 years head start was enough for Magna, and they didn’t see the need to pay for longer.

This aways seemed the more likely outcome, as even if Gentex take a SEE solution now, it will take another 2 years, before it emerged in anything on the road.

Not expecting management to provide news on the current position, unless it suddenly becomes positive in some way.

Although it would have been nice if they did, and remove another unknown.

Sorry tariff.

Trump announced 50% traffic on copper

Maps,

You said "We've got plenty of positive newsflow set to push SEE into double figures within the next 3 months"

You need to get a grip of yourself, there's nothing coming that could possibly push this into double figures in the next 3 months.

There may be some positive newsflow coming, but it will be needed just to keep the share price moving forward, after what has been a strong recovery.

Now if you had said "within the next 9 to 15 months I could have ignored the blatant ramp, as that may be possible.

You make it sound like a raving certainty, which in the next 3 months it certainly isn't.

I wonder if you have any idea how markets work.

NT,

He mentioned the exchange rate in relation to revenue, because Fleet Annual recurring revenue went down at last update and he needed to explain why.

I.e. because all the Aussi customers pay in their own currency, when that was converted to dollars for the accounts it looked like Fleet AAR had gone down.

When actually it went up in Aussi dollars, but down if shown in US dollars, due to the currency shift.

However that's just an accounting thing. My guess is that a lot of their costs (i e staff wages ) are in Aussie dollars. So a strong dollar / weak Aussie dollar would benefit that. That will be especially true going forward as more revenue is received in dollars.

So I don't think the recent fx move will help their financials, in fact it might be a small drag.

I suspect that currently their received revenue is about 25% Aussie dollars, 45% US 30% euros.

But that's just a guess based on where they are selling stuff and assuming they're the prevailing currently there.

Been some nice news flow of late, which suggests things maybe beginning to finally shape up.

The collaboration with Mitsu, seems to be a faster moving animal than many other collaborations, and shows potential in the medium term.

Small BDMS contract

Lots of posters spotting our tech in new models, which bodes very well.

But tucked away in the latest RNS, was the first confirmation from management that G3 is selling. Initial order of 550 units for an Aus utility company, with more to come later.

Having not heard anything re G3 this is excellent news.

All this is helping the share price appreciate.

I just hope that the next KPIs, are strong enough to support this rise, given most pre-date any of the news, and aren't typically released until August.

We are an optional add on within Geotab as far as I can see. So could be something or could be nothing.

Depends if the customer wants it. Hopefully some will.

Agreed, it also explains why the price has been rising,

When looking at daily published trades over the last week it's been difficult to explain the share price strength.

As there have been days it should have fallen, given there seemed to be more sells than buys.

This appears to explain that.

Sorry EPS of 30.

Actually eps more like 5p so or of 30 currently.

PE of 52? Surely if profit * 4 eps will be similar making almost 6p. Which is more like 25.

S2020,

"never sold a share and never will"

Wow that's some investment strategy! Hows that working out so far?

Maps,

I buy when I'm positive, and sell when the story changes.

The story here changed massively for the worse from 2019 to 2024, investing is as much about selling at the right time than buying good companies.

The terrible KPI's were the last straw and selling was the right decision.

At 1.7p it was oversold, just at the point of latest decent KPIs, director buying and the town hall providing enough info to suggest the story had the potential to change for the better.

So selling and buying again at those points wasn't rocket science.

To suggest "Advice/comments from you should carry an investor health warning" just shows how emotionally attached you have become here.

I suspect I'm the only one who's been here for 10 years + and is actually in profit. So I'm the last one who needs a health warning.

Try pinning that to the telegram happy clappy club, who never see any downside whatever happens here.

Apologies if I see this investing lark as trying to make money rather than earning a badge of honor sticking with a company through and through, no matter what happens. That's not an investing strategy.

S2020,

I thought you was a virtual disciple of safestocks, continually promoting his view as the gospel.

Apparently he's has it confirmed we are in all European VW cars going forward. According to him it's a given.

I only said it's likely.

Think you should be challenging your old mate before having a go at me.

Not sure what I've done to upset you, apart from calling this right and not hanging on in there when it was obvious a big sell off was coming.

That 3 million figure is Europe only to be clear.

I suspect it's more to do with the VW sop becoming a reality. Various bits of evidence suggesting we are now in various European models and likely to be in all.

That's 3 million a year once it fully ramps up. Plus UK is highly likely add on.

Having bought back about 2/3's of the ones I sold, when it became too cheap, I decided I wouldn't buy any more without concrete news from the company.

However the above, has made, even a sceptic like me, break that rule and buy another couple of small clips in the last few days.

Next KPIs need to show further improvements for that to continue.

In all the presentations in which they have spoken about breakeven, there has been nothing to suggest that Magna will renew exclusivity. Whilst they wouldn't have mentioned this outright, the extra revenue that this would generate would have helped breakeven be achieved far easier, and if they expected anything from this I wouldn't have expected a 6 month delay.

One of two on here seem to think it's almost a certainty that we will get another deal.

I have strong doubts, and they are increasing with every day that passes.

I hope I am surprised, but so far Magna don't seem to have got much return on their investment.

The final part of the RNS details shares issued to part pay the latest purchase.

Yet by my maths the shares issued would fully pay the purchase price and have many millions left over.

Is this an RNS error, bad maths on my part, or something else?

My math suggest they would need to issue about 58.7m shares to fully fund, yet they issued about 74m.

I suspect the director buys were driven by the market completely mispricing the shares, and so far they have been proven correct.

Maps/seize,

I've set the alarm for 7 next Wednesday based on your predictions. Looking forward to some good news.

I know you can occasionally get a bit excited, and sprout total nonsense, but I'm banking on you being right this time.

Private,

I suspect your take on minimum value guarantee is correct. Would have been nice if they spelt it out.