Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
If we are involved (which seems extremely likely) then its clearly good news.
However what does it mean in terms of earnings going forward, can anyone remember what Paul has quoted each FFS is worth to us?
When we announced the Collins deal, I seem to remember the company saying aviation and space could be worth $700m over 20 years.
Whilst that sounds a lot when you actually break it down its only $35m a year. No idea if this is revenue or profit.
But even assuming its profit, whilst its a nice contribution, it's not going to be a game changer.
What it will do in these early stages, is demonstrate that profitability is nailed on.
I'm expecting this Collins deal to generate a fair amount of NRE and help cover staff costs.
This should support the share price, until auto really kicks in during 2024.
If we are involved I'd expect an RNS fairly soon, as I doubt the Collins stuff has the same NDA limitations as Auto, given the exclusivity nature of the contract.
Here's hoping.
Looking at those and other indicators it looks like GM, Ford and Stelantis added an extra 180k car sales in Q2.
Our next , KPI figures should increase by whatever percentage of these we are in + any new models, + any new OEMs kicking in.
Unfortunately we can only guess what each of those are.
I would hope that a conservative guess based on the 180k sales increase would be 10%, giving us an increase of 18k quarter on quarter making 192k for the quarter.
Given the recent director buying I'm hoping for quite a bit more than that, but preparing conservatively to avoid disappointment again.
I suspect the following November KPI to have the bigger move once BMW kick in.
They are not. There will be key conditions, including a share price target. We just haven't been made privy to those yet.
You have misread or misunderstood the statement.
The annual report will contain the detail, but that is a couple of months away.
Nope he has 47m options.
New 10m + 12m + 15m rollovers.
However the 15m was part of a 25m 5 year package. 5m per year.
The last 10m still has 1 year and 2 years to go, so not rolled over.
So that needs to be added in.
Total comes to 47m.
So he now has 47million shares, as part of his incentivisation by 2026.
But we don't know at what price they become available.
I'm very happy for the CEO to be handsomely rewarded if the company is very successful. However 47 million shares is starting to look like a management with snouts in the trough.
Very annoyed at the roll over of options.
I guess what this highlights, is that planes ordered today get delivered in 8 to 10 years time.
So where does that leave our revenue stream?
At what point does our technology get added, and does that mean the original contract financials needs tweaking, for that to happen?
We could still be 5 years away from air licence royalties.
S2020,
Thanks for the info, but happy to stay on the dark side for a while longer.
I'll assume 1.5m for BMW in FY 24 and 2.2m in FY 2025.
As Colin says won't be in every model until sometime 2024.
Ta
S2020,
You state "Every BMW coming off the production line now has SM tech on board via the Idrive system"
This is extremely key to the overall short term business case, and I really hope it is indeed the case.
If we look at FY 2024 with the above in mind, we should see the following using $10 a car.
2.2m cars from BMW = $22m
0.8m from others = $8m
Licence payments Collins and Magna $8m
Fleet $30m
Air NRE $3
The above is fairly conservative I believe and comes to $71m revenue, which should be very close to profitability.
Given the above is conservative as long as BMW really do put us in 2.2m cars then I think profitability is almost nailed in now, with the following year being even stronger .
So BMW have become very important in the immediate short term, and may be the thing that finally gets this moving upwards, when the KPI's start to show it.
Any idea when they first started to put us in every car? Must be fairly recent?
I certainty wouldn't read too much into it. It's taken 7 years to get to 50k. I wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't a typo.
I'll be happy for G3 to make a difference, but I'm just not seeing it.
Sure it's cheaper and easier to install, but will it really make that much difference.
Even those invested enough in safety to buy G2, take 6 months to install on average. Plus the first 50k should have been the easy sells, the next lot have ignored the evidence for the last 7 years and not bought.
I think setting 150k as next milestone is admirable but a total pipedream, which will come back to haunt him.
I notice that Ford have hiked the 3 year subscription price for blue Cruise from 600 to 2100 dollars. If you pay monthly it's now 75.
Customers are not happy and even Ford have acknowledged that.
There is a level where people just won't accept the cost. I certainty wouldn't pay the new rates and I'm a fan.
I can see automakers getting greedy already and causing a massive slow down in adoption.
This is worrying in the US as most of our early auto revenue will come from there and they don't have the same regulation time constraints dictated by Europe.
The 875k was for end March. We should be over a million now given we are averaging 60k a month and growing.
I guess they just haven't received the data for May yet so are only saying 900k.
Glandore,
What you are trying to work out is just too difficult currently. I'd also like to know some of this stuff but the following is what makes it nigh impossible.
1. You are using Fords yearly sales figures, but we are only in 2 to 3 ranges F-series, Mustang, and Lincoln ( no idea which Lincoln). At most that is only about 900k sales a year, in which we could be in, not 2m+
2. a fair number of those sales could also be invalid if in countries where Blue Cruise not mapped. No idea if they are putting our chip in if that is the case.
3. As I discovered last month when trying to guess our KPIs using ford bluecruise sales, they are selling Bluecruise subscriptions to customers who bought months ago. So for us that isn't a new sale as we already reported that in previous KPIs when our chip was installed.
4. There will also be unknown, unknowns.
If it helps Ford have averaged about 12,000 Bluecruise sales each moth since Sept 2022, except for Feb and March which was 36000 per month. I suspect Feb and March was when they did the bulk of subscriptions to cars purchased months previously, before BlueCruise could be bought.
I'd hope by 2024 they mean 1st Jan 2024. which isn't a massive stretch given 75k sales a month in the models currently available.
Has anyone seen the Shore Capital note?
Would be nice to know why they think aviation royalties will outpace Auto, (which is quite significant if true), yet only guide revenue increase of 6%.
The licence revenue alone increases revenue by at least 6%.
So a little confused by the statement that proactive quote.
Also I don't think anyone has ever suggested that Aviation could be bigger than auto, which is how I read that statement.
Won't count any chickens just yet, but interesting all the same.
Lost,
Love to see the share price rise. Also recognise the potential.
Difference between me and others is that I can see growth and delivery has been slower than predicted, and that breakeven targets are under threat. If we run out of money, and that becomes more likely with pedestrian growth, we will need to do another 40m find raise, and add another 1 billion shares to the shares in issue.
If that happens i 'd guess 50% of that potential just evaporates overnight.
Now some think that potential is so big it don't matter. Whereas I think it's somewhere between 50p and a £1.
If the potential becomes 50% of that, then I've wasted over 10 years here.
Boon,
Yes thanks I think that must explain the difference between Fords numbers and ours.
I should have thought of that.
It might also explain why Fords numbers where so light in March.
Ie they have switched on most of the sales from previous quarters, and are now only getting subscriptions from New sales.
Seethepotential,
No don't imagine what the SP could be on those numbers, work it out.
That's what serious investors do. But no-one on here seems to think it's a necessary requirement when investing.
Just believe everything management say, even if most of it has not been delivered.
This is a CEO who's failed to deliver his own easy share price targets, for his bonus most years.