Member Info for Brockwl

Really?

So you honestly believe that having only grown auto by 4% last quarter, it will grow nearly 50% next quarter to achieve breakeven?

It's fine to believe in the long/medium term outlook for the company and therefore stay invested.

But you really have to question what you are saying about the immediate future. Because logic says your wrong.

They clearly held the figures back until this G3 contract could also be released alongside.

That shows they know the KPI's are very disappointing , and without the other RNS the share price would have tanked today, probably hitting low 3s

Looking at things objectively, what are the chances of breakeven?

Auto needs to hit 750k.

Seems very unlikely given we are only at 510K, with only 4% growth last quarter.

Can they get a 240K increase? I just don’t see it.

No mention of minimum guarantees helping them out either today.

Aftermarket also needs to hit 6000.

They seemed very confident re this figure, but I’m struggling to see where that confidence is coming from.

Sure, they have hit 2600 already, but that includes a 1100 contract order and a 600 contract which rules those 2 customers out of any further orders this quarter.

The figures suggest they sold 700 additional units to other customers.

I’m just not getting where the other 3400 are coming from.

Even the biggest customer they have ever sold to only wanted 1100 to date.

So they are going to need at least a couple more of them.

Currently trying to convince myself to buy back the ones I sold earlier, but just can’t manage it at moment.

Well I did warn that if any of the KP's were likely to disappoint this would be the one, and disappoint they did.

Both were much worse than I expected, and if people are truthful far worse than most on here were expecting.

As a result breakeven looks likely to be pushed back.

Clearly the G3 win is good news, and it's a question of whether it makes up for the above poor news.

I sold 30% of my holding this morning fully expecting this to dive. So far it's held up, but we will see how it goes over the next week.

The Proactive video was Paul selling the company at his best. Wasn't convinced about the excuses for the KPI's, but the new G3 contract sounds interesting. Trouble is whilst high tens of thousands sounds great it will take years to be achieved, given they are only doing 1100, by end Dec.

Martin was the voice of reason once again, and suggested to me that although they hoped to hit breakeven in December, it would most likely be pushed back a month or two.

Not without good news, or the seller finishing.

A 2.5m sale just gone through at 3.74.

It's too easy to find shares to sell. I'm surprised it's holding this level given the seller.

That suggests we are becoming more mainstream and less blue sky, and the story is starting to resonate.

I think those numbers will be fine if achieved.

However I'm not expecting 20% a quarter linear growth, I suspect it will jump about a bit.

Martin said they need 750k a quarter by end Dec to breakeven, which is slightly more than 20%. But 20% for the first Quarter will do.

Just think if there is a weak quarter this one is the favorite

Based on what the company knows about its customers leading into July 2026 mandatory Euro DMS, I think they can be pretty accurate about sales just before and after that period.

However the build up to those volumes is far less certain. As a result I think the next set of KPIs has the most potential to disappoint.

I hope they don't, because the share price has currently been strong with much buying in anticipation, and a weaker than expected set of KPI's could see this drift back again, just as it's ready to breakout.

As a result I think this set of KPI's is very important to meet expectations, and support the share price. If that can be achieved then I'd be very confident of future KPI's and a continuing rising share price.

Been plenty of good sized buys and volume over the last month. However there has clearly been a willing seller supplying.

The 5m today looks like them again.

Given the volume sold over the recent month I'm surprised we haven't seen a holding announcement.

1% change in holding would require 50m sold. Someone must be getting close to that looking at the monthly volume chart.

Actually I made a small mistake it should be

735k + 552k +552K + 1m + 912k +1.5m + 600k = $ 5.85m

Been looking at what they want to be approved at the AGM re CEO performance rights.

Both new and old plans (amended) need agreeing.

New 2026 Plan

6.126m vests on 31 August 2026 if share price reaches 5.71p or 3.06m if share prices reaches 4.86

4.6m vests on 31 August 2027 if share price reaches 6.31p or 2.3m if share prices reaches 6.31

4.6m vests on 31 August 2028 if share price reaches 9.28p or 2.3m if share prices reaches 7.89

Historic rights

7.5m vested now until July 2028 at nil cost – currently worth $262,500

12m vested now until July 2028 at 4.41p

12.5m vests 30 June 2026 based on an undisclosed EDITDA hurdle

12.5m vests 30 June 2028 based on share price hitting 12p. 40% vests at 12p up to 100% at 20p.

Whilst I’m relatively comfortable with the new plan I feel the historic plan is taking the mickey.

Firstly, every time these things fail to vest due to poor performance they just extend and enhance them which isn’t the way they should work and is a bit of a joke.

Nowhere is the EBITDA hurdle disclosed, so I think that is just another $1.5m freebie.

Quick calc suggests the following, (I’ve assumed he meets the EDITDA hurdle as its not disclosed)

If share price hits 12p by Aug 2028

735k + 552k +552K +262k + 912k +1.5m + 600k = $ 5.113m

Most people are hoping for 12p by mid 2028, so it’s a realistic possibility.

Is $5.1m too much?

Could come any day now.

Hard to know what will satisfy the market going forward, but my guess is:-

Auto 560k

Fleet 3k

Auto seems to be more guaranteed to deliver, given what we have been told. Fleet is a bit of an unknown currently and could equally disappoint or outperform.

Common sense?

Seems like they have a big order to fill and will take any amount under 3.50.

Q3 operations update tomorrow

Q3 results 13/11/25.

S2020.

50% market share is old news. Going forward they have declared they think 30% volume 35% value is more likely.

They clearly think the competition is now stronger, or they are trying to reduce expectations.

I'm inclined to think 30% is more likely realistic.

Its also worth saying that, once 2m Auto units a Quarter and 6000 Fleet G3 a quarter is shown in the KPIs the share price should hit those targets in anticipation. So anytime April to August next year.

Previously determining future potential and the share price has always been very difficult here. Hence why there has been such a wide gulf between bulls and those more skeptical.

However, as a result of recent company detailed, and more believable guiding, it’s become far easier to lay out where they should be in a couple of years.

Going back over time we have been fed hopes and aspirations, but with Euro regulation certain revenues are now looking nailed on.

Breakeven at year end, and a small profit for 2026 is looking likely. Whether it’s a small profit or a small loss is probably immaterial, and will be determined by how early Auto customers get ready for the regulations.

So, what does a simplistic view of 2027 look like?

I’m only including known contracts revenues, or extremely likely sales.

There are 4 key elements to determine the basic simple model.

1. Auto revenue

Given we have been told that at the Beginning of FY 2026 we will have reached 2m a Quarter. I’ve assumed 8m for the year. Agreed this is a little conservative, but the big jump from Europe will be over and other growth needs to come from elsewhere, and likely to be more pedestrian.

2. Fleet sales

I’ve assumed will manage to sell the 6000 a quarter G3 units we can currently produce.

3. Fleet Monitoring

I’ve assumed this will increase at the rate which matches the G3 sales

4. Costs

Continue to be held at current levels

If you plug in the figures for each of the above it translates to a profit for FY2027 of $48.5m.

That would suggest a share price of 7p at a PER of 10 or 11p at 15. Y

You can take your pick of these, but they are likely to be heavily influenced by:-

a) The Magna loan

b) How many contracts are won between then and now, as most of the existing ones will be nearing completion mid 2028, and holders will

want to see future growth coming along.

My own view is that Magna are unlikely to take shares at 11p, unless the price is above that price in October 2026. Which I think is unlikely and therefore will need paying . As a result, the lower PER may be more likely until its paid off.

Anyway, assuming the company delivers what they see as being the stone cold bonker certainties, it’s looking bright for the next 2 years,

I’m sure many on here will think this is very conservative, and they are going do much better. Sure, that’s possible but for now I’m happy to see a decent rise pretty much nailed on, and take a view on the other stuff as it materializes.

Yes I'd agree.

Based on slightly exceeding analysts expectations of £15.4m pre tax profit.

So lets be conservative and say £15.5m.

Should be at least £11.4m post tax.

Which I make at around 36p eps.

At current PER of 14 that's 504p.

Even if PER drops to 12 because bumper gold profits are seen as short term, its still 430p.

Plus a rising dividend.

I did sell 10% at 373p a few weeks back when the price first spiked, but will hold the rest for now until the gap closes.

Despite some very big buys, seems to be no shortage of sellers at this price.

Friday's rise whilst welcome, was completely out of the blue.

It's clear there were a lot of big buys, and some decent volume for a change.

Quite why this occurred Friday is anyone's guess, although I don't think its because there is big news coming Monday, and it's leaked.

I can only guess that as part of coming to London, management have been doing the Institution rounds and have managed to convince a few that the story is worth investing in.

Be interesting to see if it continues Monday.

Trouble is without some decent news it could easily slip back again.

There is definitely a seller. Been 1.5m sales last few days.