Member Info for Brockwl

sgreen,
Not saying it can't be done, but needs 75% Quarter on Quarter incremental growth for it to happen.
I just wish we knew what models etc were the ones we are currently sold in.
The only one I know and can monitor is Ford Bluecruise, and they didn't increase sales at all last quarter.
so we got zero increase from them.
So I wasn't surprised at only 26% increase, although I did expect 150K minimum.
The trouble is, it's easy to keep saying it will come next time, but I don't know how long I can do that.
I need to see at least one big jump.

Soul,
The amount of burn hadn't escaped my notice, although it's not quite as bad as you suggest, in that cash has increased by $11.7m, so you can knock that off whatever we have drawn.
I won't include the £10m Magna up front payment, as that is genuine revenue, But $30m bond money minus 11.7m suggest we have burnt $18.3m in 6 months.
At that rate we have 2 years max to start making decent profit, and 18 months if we don't stop costs escalating.

Someone raised the issue of recurring revenue earlier, saying it seemed a poor percentage increase.
This was bushed off by someone suggesting the change of currency and poor Fx rate was the cause.
Well doing the numbers, either something is very wrong or all the new Fleet installations have only added $7.3 a month each to the recurring revenue. Which is way below what it should be.
It's completely unclear to me why this is and I'll be asking for an explanation at the Investormeet presentation.

DR777,
Nope you have got that wrong, CenKos forecasts are of .96m are for this year alone. My own forecast was 1m, which I took from the November presentation Paul did back in 2021. So I don't have an issue with there forecast as they came from company steering.
I accept the latest Cenkos update doesn't make in abundantly clear by keep referring to Vehicles on the road this financial year, which you could mistake as total since inception. But its not its Vehicles per year on road.
Total Vehicles since year dot is meaningless for their projections, they are only interested in totals per year.
Previous Cenkos reports, .which contained about 16 pages and went into much more granular detail makes this abundantly clear. Go back and read one of those to satisfy yourself, as from memory it details numbers of cars per year they expect.
It you think 650,00 is a stretch then we really are in trouble. I think we will do that, but 960,000 is a stretch.

Soulboy,
The Magna up-front payment was $10m.
The overall 3 year payment is $17.5.
Without the full detail (not provided in this TU), its hard to know what figure they have included in the total revenue.
My guess is that it’s the $10m up-front payment.
Last year they made $15.8 revenue, this time $24.4, so a $8.6m increase.
I had assumed they would include the $10m, and thus naively assumed revenue would be at least $25.8, and hopefully slightly more.
However, its significantly shy of that, so either they didn’t book all the $10m (unlikely), or revenue excluding Magna has gone down.
I suspect that “services rendered” revenue and possibly Fleet hardware supply is where the revenue reduction has occurred. Last time services rendered was $6.5m.
As we know services rendered is hardly profitable, so losing that revenue isn’t a big deal
This is the trouble with TU’s, in that they only give overall broad revenue details, from which it’s hard to draw any meaningful conclusions, and usually contain a lot of positive spin.
The share price reaction today, says it all really, ie it was OKish.
My take is that it had more bad, than good, in that of the 3 KPI’s, 1 was good, and 2 were below my expectations.
Fleet installations was Good, Auto was below expectations, and Fleet sales were below expectations
If one reads the Cenkos note carefully, one can see how it’s gradually dawning on them that their forecasts were over-egged, and that they are unlikely to be achieved.
In particular 0.95m Auto this year and their Fleet install expectations which I have continually doubted.
I find it odd that they recognize that a lot of ground needs to be made up in H2, and yet they think they will exceed revenue forecasts? The 2 statements don’t align.
I suspect this is because See have booked more of the Magna revenue this year than Centos have included in their forecasts, but they have yet to realise this. Which again is something I’ve always questioned and don’t understand.
See have great technology, which is in demand, and therefore great potential.
However, they need to start beating previous numbers by serious percentage gains (ie 50%+ rather than 20%+)
For example auto was forecasted by Cenkos at 950,00 this year.
So far we have Q1 = 112077, Q2 = 141,747 +26%
To achieve 950,000, we need Q3 = 250,000 +76% and Q4 = 436,176 +74.5%
Can we go from 26% gains to 75% gains? I hope so but am yet to be convinced.
Failure to do that, or find another licencing deal, will ultimately result in a delay to profitability, and a further rights issue. Resulting in significant dilution, and massive loss of gains for current holders.

I'm still holding strong, and hopeful, but need to see some proper $ and significantly increased installs, before taking anything for granted.

Baxter,
I'm not expecting the KPIs to be anything better than the minimum growth you'd expect. So ok but not earth shattering.
However I think the additional revenue from the Magna license deal will make the revenue numbers show very decent growth. Which should keep the market happy for now.
So expecting TU to support or boost the share price, until the next quarterly KPIs.
After that they need some new deal announcements, or KPIs which show some serious growth.

Matml74,
I'm stating that these are the only ones which will contain the magna license.
No one knows what future ones will contain, but they won't contain this.

There's actually a fairly good short term trade becoming available here.
Given trading updates only tend to mention revenue, the next one should be really good. Even better than results which will contain all the extra costs of the extra staff employed.
This update will have the 10m magna payment, plus 3.5m of orders they were unable to ship in 2022, due to supply issues.
That's almost as good as last year on it's own.
I can see the update saying revenue over 100% increase.
That should move the price, even if only in the short term.

S2020,
When I say flattered, I'm coming from the perspective of how it affects the various results, given it's a one off payment.
I'm not saying it isn't a great piece of business.
As a result these results will get a boast that future and previous ones will be missing. So will look especially good ie flattered.
I agree with your view on how Cenkos think it's being paid, but think they have got it wrong, along with a number of other things in their forecasts.
The RNS is quite clear. It states -
Magna will make an upfront payment of 10million, with an additional payment of 7.5 million payable over the following 2years.
Have another read.

Just to give some context to results and the Magna payment.
Last H1 was about 15m revenue.
This year if it is 20m + the Magna 10m it's 30m, eg 100% increase.
Won't be hard to sell that.
Its the next set of results that will be harder, which will need auto to be doing some heavy lifting by then.

Yep results will be flattered by the 10 million Magna up front payment.
So will look especially good and be easy to present,even without any other news.

Terry,
You said "As GM said yesterday about the Lyric, more delivered in Jan than all off 2022. Shows it only just getting going now for many."

I'm afraid that quote is about one of the most misleading sales quotes I've ever heard.
I agree it came from GM, but when one understands that in 2022, they only produced 113 Lyrics, it means that they only needed to produce 114 in Jan for it to be true.
That isn't going to solve our revenue needs any time soon at $11 a pop.

Gives a very false impression of auto volume, when I'm actually trying to fully understand exactly what the likely upcoming KPI might be.

They have done it to achieve a guaranteed domestic lithium supply chain.
I doubt there will be anything like a 20% discount.
GM will do very well financially from the deal, as well as guarantee supply. They don't need a discount.
There will be a few car companies wishing they had this deal.

Chutz,
Yep I only did a quick mental calc, so sure you are right.

Nathan,
Yes well that will be general sentiment, due to the fact they needed to raise. In seye's case that already happened at announcement time.
The next change will be once the new shares are added to the register.
Taking the existing shares at current price plus new shares at rights price, following the raise they should trade at around 37p.
Assuming no change from here.

Nathan,
Seye price won't change until rights in market, and tradable which is 2nd Feb.

For the new FD.

Based on the daily mileage figures, the highest mileage conversion to installs comes out at 44,745 total installs on the 15/12/22.
Mileage can be a little higher pre-christmas, thus flattering the numbers, but if we balance that with there still being 2 weeks for further installs until end of year, I suspect that is a fair balance.
So looks like they have averaged 1110 a month over the last 3 months, (3330 for the quarter).
Monthly figures bare out this average, which surprised me a little, as I thought that October and November would be lower due to supply constraints, and a big jump in December.
However that wasn't the case, and October/November were slightly better than December
Unfortunately because of Christmas. December figures are very unreliable, and we probably won't know now if new supply is making a difference until late Jan.
Given we know how slow customers have been in fitting previously, the new supply may take at least 3 months before it really starts to come through into installs and mileage.

I have recurring revenue from Fleet at AUS $22.5m from today. Which given we are half way through the Financial Year,
should be roughly what is declared in final results if 2nd half has similar growth, ie 4900 units in 1st half.
However should be better than that as 1st quarter was poor, and Cenkos forecast much more (24k FY from memory).
Given we are currently at 1110 per month and supply issues easing, I'm leaning more towards the conservative end and expecting another 8K in 2nd half .
Hopefully the company will surprise on the upside.

Happy New year All

6.20 and 6.9.
Don't see much changing in first half of year.
The market needs to see significant out performance and more certainty of moving into profit going forward.
Auto numbers will still be too low at this stage, although possible November numbers could surprise and give a major boost.
Expecting share price to be fairly static until 2024.
Hopefully the rise will come then.

I accept you can avoid a lot of dilution by subscribing fully in the rights.
However it's costing 20m for the issue to guaranteed, and they have taken a bridging loan of 60m, to get them through to February, which will also be costing.
So by the time of the rights issue, they will likely have burnt through about 85m of the 325m raise.
If it's not fully supported, the guarantors will sell in the market and take the price lower.
I wouldn't go anywhere near it personally.
Most funds are selling shares to cover redemptions, not buying currently, so every chance it's not fully subscribed.

Why would anyone buy seye right now, given they intend to raise money very shortly.
Your just going to get diluted surely?.
Time to buy is after the rights issue has been announced, surely?