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The starting number should be the last auto pki number, which was 211k cars.

So assuming 20% per quarter, next KPI should be 253k cars per quarter.

It's a guess as to what that is in revenue, but I'm using 11 dollars a car as a conservative estimate. So that's around 2.75m dollars next quarter from auto royalties

Personally I'd see this as the low end of my expectations for next quarter.

I'm hoping for at least 270k next quarter.

Horza,

Afraid that doesn't answer the question.

He's Blue Cruise equipped, which means he is included in the figures Ford disclose, ie one of the 260k.

Doesn't explain where the rest come from.

Can anyone help me understand the Auto numbers a little better?

In the next KPI’s we should be announcing we are in 1.2m cars given we were at 1m last time and we are doing over 200,000 a quarter.

However, if you look at reported Ford Blue Cruise and GM Super Cruise numbers it doesn’t go anywhere near that total.

Ford say there are 260k Blue Cruise equipped cars on the road globally, and GM’s latest announcement was a paltry 80K, giving a total of 340K, from what is supposed to be our biggest customers.

Unless Ford and GM are putting our chip in cars which aren’t Cruise capable, I don’t fully understand it.

Anyone any idea how we have managed to sell 1.2m, and who they have been too?

Why does all this stuff have to be so secretive.

Looking for clues as to how things are going, I notice that the Fatigue intervention (12 monthly total), from the home page, has been accelerating significantly of late.

Given the mileage figures stopped working some time back, and on return were clearly never right again. Figures suggest that a significant number of vehicles are no longer being monitored for mileage for whatever reason.

As a result I’m inclined to mistrust the fatigue figures.

However I’m also thinking that, given every fatigue intervention must be relayed back to the monitoring center, otherwise customers are paying for nothing, they may be far more reliable, than the mileage figure.

Based on figures since I’ve been collecting, (admittedly not very long), we have 3 possibilities.

1. Fleet installations have done much better this quarter.

2. The figures are unreliable. ie they are adding new occurrences but not deducting old.

3. There are an awful lot of sleepy drivers being added, or for some reason we are detecting more occurences.

Only the next KPIs will show whether this is a reliable measure. But for now, it could suggest a 100% increase of installations, from 1000 a month to 2000 a month.

Here’s hoping

Seems a very good deal. Money back after first year of production, and relatively environmentally friendly way of mining it.

Lot better than the Mali deal, which I'm not keen on.

They weren't results, it was a trading update.

1. It ain't happened yet.

2. If it did and lasted 3 months (unlikely), it could cost SEE the equivalent of a Q of US auto revenue this year. If estimated worldwide expected Q4 revenue is around 4m, then US revenue might be 2.5m

So in worse case hardly a serious problem.

Lewbo,

Yes I get there are receivables to be taken into account here from end of accounting period. However I'd only expect that to be last month of year not Quarter, else they are offering ridiculously long payment terms.

So lets say 4000 were sold in June, that still leaves 20k.

That's still quite bullish.

Be interesting to know what their payment terms are.

Direct sales could even be up front, with resellers being longer clearly, and possibly needing to hold some stock for free until sold?

I'm surprised no one has commented on Paul's explanation of the cash position.

My understanding is the he said that we have 36m cash tied up in G2 Fleet unit inventories, which they expect to unwind by End of this year.

I see this as interesting for 2 reasons.

1. Tying up half your available cash in this way is not a decision taken lightly.

Doing the maths I calculate that this equates to about 24k units.

So they clearly believe they will sell the majority of these before the end of the year.

Given Fleet averages about 1000 a month, that is a big increase, and if wrong is a huge amount of working capital tied up needlessly.

They clearly believe strong Fleet sales are around the corner and have put their money where their mouth is.

Alternatively they believe/know G3 is further away than we have been led to believe, and will need more G2 inventory.

No idea which is the case. But probably a bit of each.

2 . When they originally stated that current cash status was misleading due to inventory build, I'd assumed that included 10m cash max. I wasn't expecting 36m.

As a result I'm more comfortable with the cash position going forward.

If they have got this wrong, they will have to hold back the release of G3, as they can't afford to have loads of G2 inventory become obsolete.

Lost,

I'd be more than happy waiting if we was breaking even and just waiting for growth to kick in. Trouble is based on your auto figures that's another 20m cash burnt in FY 24, and still not reached break even. Only 16m left going forward.

Things start to get pretty tight, just as G3 is launched and we need to buy loads of hardware inventory.

I worry Paul's, "what would we do with more money" quote may become the next "imminent" moment.

Glandore,

I think you have got it spot on.

I’m not particularly happy either, however for once I’m actually not unhappy.

I suspect that’s because after years of hype and subsequent growth at the low end of that, I’ve lowered expectations in all respects.

Fleet seems to be stuck at 1000 new connections a month, so I only expect those levels and that’s what we got again. Only the upgrades, which is a bit of a bonus, made it look as though we had some exceptional quarter for Fleet

For whatever reason installation of kit once purchased seems to take an age, and until something dramatic changes (like fitting after manufacture), I don’t see this changing, and 1000 a month will continue. The European directive seems to have had almost zero impact.

Auto was again slightly below my, much lowered expectations, however, as said many times the next 3 or 4 KPIs should demonstrate whether there really is a high growth business going to appear.

I think there still is, but it has taken much longer to establish than I hoped, when I first got involved here.

At 211K for the 4th Quarter, next year should deliver something along the lines of :-

211K * 4 if no growth = 844k

BMW reportedly in all models (2m+ a year) = 1m for 6 months if they start Jan 2024 as suggested. Let’s say 900K with a slow start up.

Full year of Mercedes 200K?? total guess on numbers but attempting to be conservative.

Continued growth of Ford, GM, etc, and Fisker start. Say another 170k.

Total 844k + 900k + 200K + 170K = 2,114,000 sales

Even at $11 a pop (again low estimate) that’s $23.25m revenue.

I’m personally hoping for 3m, but would be ok with the above. However next KPI will be very telling as I’d expect a 65k jump from 211k to 276k as a minimum if its going to happen.

I’m not expecting anything new from Paul on Proactive tomorrow, other than the usual hype.

Looking back at old RNSs, it looks as if there were at least 11k fleet vehicles on G1 and which will need an upgrade. Looks like about 7k have been done, so another 4k to go. Which at 500 dollars margin per unit is another 2m dollars profit, which should show in FY24. Couldn't come at a better time really.

I suspect this is where the revenue beat has come from.

Mike,

Take a look at today's Cenkos note.

https://www.cenkos.com/research-portal/#/portal/cenkos-securities.

You'll have to register but worth doing that for the See notes alone.

Can't cut and paste relevant section as not on pc currently.

The trouble is that 5700 of those were upgrades to existing customers, not new customers with new monitoring revenue. Aus Going 3G to 4G has been a bit of a windfall in that respect for us.

Customer must be a little cheesed off with this, knowing G 3 is coming at some point.

Centos seem to think they have already drawn the extra Magna 17.5m loan.

Very surprised that wasn't RNS'd.

Boon,

Thanks for that, tucked away in notes at bottom which I missed. Would be nice if they had indicated how much extra working cap was used, which will later unwind.

Are we talking 2m or 10m. Once again left in dark.

Figures are pretty much as expected.

Fleet connections slightly disappointing, sold units slightly better.

Auto just under expectations, but next quarter is the key one.

Biggest concern is cash burn. Another 16m burnt in last 6 months and 36.8m left.

From having more than they need to getting a bit tight now.

Not sure how market will view this. Should still be ok if revenue we expect transpires, but market may not be prepared to be so sure.

The magna convertibles may be classed as liabilities now. But if they decide not to convert, it then becomes debt.

Depends on your personal risk assessment, as to whether you see it as a liability or debt.

Anyone assessing on worst case scenario, will treat it as debt.

1093000

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