Member Info for Brockwl

So having previously been on track for 3m per month burn, which turned out to be 4m for 6 months.

Your impressed and happy to believe another on track statement, given that is hugely dependant on future revenue.

What was abundantly clear from the presentation is they haven't got a clue about future Auto revenues, and are having to have a investigation into what happened to OEM4's revenue last quarter.

If that doesn't tell you they are completely guessing future Auto revenues I don't know what will.

S2020.

Well if you know that, then you also know they said first quarter would be 3.5m per month and 2nd quarter would be 3m per month.

Turns out it's been 4m per month. So 4.5m more than they predicted.

So they are actually just trying to claw back what they failed to achieve in the first half.

They was on track to deliver that previously and haven't, so I wouldn't trust on track predictions.

You need to look at things more objectively and report the full picture and not just the bit you think people might like to hear.

It's so much better to read objective viewpoints rather than rampy statements

Chris,

I hope you are right about Valeo, price action certainly looked like,some people being in the know about something good going forward.

I don't buy it's people getting in ahead of results, as I'm not expecting anything in results that is any better than the trading update. In fact I'm expecting results to read less positive than the trading update.

I say that because you can just keep the trading statement to accentuate the positives, and just disclose the bits you want. Whereas results will be everything, warts and all.

Even if they didn't do that, there is nothing to suggest that results will be better than trading update.

So lets hope it's a contract in the bag.

If you read the next paragraph it explains exactly why.

Makes perfect sense to me.

What makes you think this is SEE?

The line that caught my eye was

The basis for this project was a scientific study commissioned by Shell and other operators to review more than 100 commercially available technological systems that purported to detect fatigue or distraction in drivers.

100 competing products!!!!!

You can see why take up has been so poor in Fleet. Having mopped up Australia and most of New Zealand fairly easily, getting others around the world to look at your product seriously must be difficult with this number of competing options.

How many are going to have the capability like Shell to look at all products, and do a proper assessment.

Especially if the customer already has strong telematics associations with suppliers not supporting us.

In addition whilst we may be the best, I'd guess we are also the most expensive.

I'd previously thought there may be 10 competing products in Fleet at most. It doesn't really matter if most are rubbish, when there are 100 it just makes knowing you have looked at all the right products all the harder if not impossible for the customer.

Hopefully the aftermarket DMS offerings, when buying new vehicles in Europe, will only be the best of breed,as manufacturers must know what is what here.

This should serve to make the haulage companies etc far more knowledgeable about what they should be buying in the future.

So for me the 100 competing products is a bit of a red flag, however Euro aftermarket regulation may help to clarify the landscape for European customers somewhat.

I have only read what Seize has posted of the interview, as it requires registration.

The key 2 quotes are

"Seeing Machines, which is listed on the AIM market in London, has forecast a doubling in revenue to $US125 million by 2026.

The critical aspect of that forecast is that revenue from royalties will rise about nine-fold to as much as $US68.75 million."

The $125m revenue figure for 2026 is the crux of the investing case for SEE. If that transpires they will be in a very healthy position, and should be making about $40m profit.

This should result in a company rerate and the share price should be anywhere from 7p to 10p, and if they can demonstrate there is further growth to follow, be above 10p.

He's made that $125m statement a couple of times now, and is slightly above my estimate of $120m.

Whilst previously they had said the $125m would be a rough 50/50 split between Auto and Fleet, he has further qualified that quoting $68.75m today.

That's slightly less than I had modeled at $71m, but will be very happy if they achieve that. It also suggests they expect Fleet to do better than I have projected. Presumably because I have nothing in for aftermarket, and they expect some decent revenue from that.

To get to $68.75m in Auto they will need to be doing about 5.75m cars a year in 2026. Which would roughly suggest the following yearly totals.

2024 1.25m

2025 3m

2026 5.75m

Half way through this year we are at 433k cars. Averaging 216.5k per quarter.

So we need to deliver another 800k over the last 2 quarters to be on track.

So a minimum of 300k for the next quarter and possibly a few more.

There goes the "we are/will be in all BMWs " claim that's been posted here a number of times.

Until the company starts to give some steer as to what cars/models we are in, it's more a throw of the dice than an investment.

Time and time again people come up with good reasons why we are in this and that, only to find its not the case.five

The original Auto investment case was that we would be rolled out into premium models and trims first, and then get the real volume when rolled out into mainstream models.

However more and more it seems that's not happening and cheaper options are being used for those.

My big concern is that by the time quality DMS becomes mainstream for all cars, it will be too late for SEE investors.

I think Colin sums up the Smarteye position very well, and it's beyond me how the share price has risen since these results. Its surely clear to anyone who has watched any of their presentations, that Martin is way out of his depth here.

I suspect another raise is probably 6 months away.

Knowing these are our biggest competitor is definitely helping me stay invested here.

However whilst I think they pose very little threat in automotive, (other than low end business), I suspect that they will take away a lot of business from us in Aftermarket. There will be many operators who just want to tick the box and be legal rather than look for the best solution. This may be what gets them through in the end if they can sell it at a profit, and may well take a lot of business away from us

Why would anyone buy shares at 11p when they are trading at 5p or less. You would either take the money back, or possibly roll over the deal on much better terms.

Can't understand why you think they won't have the money, listening on here they should be swimming in cash by then.

Good to see someone ask some proper questions, and not let him off the hook.

Wasn't that convinced with some of the replies.

We were surprised by last month's auto figures! Reasons - it's complicated

Now mentioning that the 300m + RNS figure is only 1/3 guaranteed. Never heard that mentioned before.

Got rid of 5 to 6m stock last 6 months, so adding that to the 13.9m cash burn makes at least 19m cash burn. That's about what Martin forecast at the last presentation.

Still predicting 100% auto year on year growth, although I thought he was less convincing. He clearly knows that requires a big 2nd half.

Sorry the third par should read

However they did quantify the negative impacts on revenue in each division, from the UAW Auto strikes.

Which given many are using as the reason for SEE's lack of growth, I found interesting.

Magna issued results today so took a quick scan to see if any read across or snippets.

It's a very different beast to SEE so not much to glean.

However they dis quantify the negative impacts on revenue in each division, which given many are using as the reason for SEE's lack of growth, I found interesting.

They have 4 divisions and 3 were affected, only the "complete system division" was unaffected as they do the full build and stikes didnt affect them directly here.

The power and Vision division is the most closely aligned to See.

For this division they were negatively impacted by $65m out of a total revenue of $3.78b.

This works out at 2.5% of revenue. Other divisions were around 3%.

Hard to know what proportion of that overall revenue comes from affected production lines, as clearly I'd guess some wasn't. However if we assume 50% was and 50% wasn't, we can say that revenue was affect by 2 * 2.5%. So 5%.

Hence the read across is that SEE should have been affected similarly.

Based on this evidence I'm prepared to believe that SEE was affected by the UAW strikes. But not enough to explain why growth stalled last quarter.

If we add 5% to the Auto KPI, its still slightly shy of the previous quarter.

Trouble is Terry we don't have 5 years money to wait for that, which is why Auto is so important at this moment.

Fleet is only moving the dial by an extra couple of million per year, auto has the potential to deliver 10's of millions very quickly.

Unfortunately so far it hasn't been anywhere near as quick as management predicted, and last quarter it declined.

Last 3 figures for Fleet at HY/FY and recurring revenue

56896 $14.5m so (14.5m/56896)/12 = $21.23 per month

51975 $13.6m (13.6m/51975)/12 = $21.80 per month

46018 $12.7m (12.7m/46018)/12 = $22.99 per month

Cheers

I remember at the town hall event, Paul making a big thing about, how the Aftremarket monitoring revenue margins would increase as they moved more towards direct selling with customers like Shell.

I seem to remember him saying a good proportion of this future revenue will be chargeable of closer to $60 a month instead of $30 a month. I suspect those figures were in Aus dollars.

Well they disclose the recurring revenue figure at half and full year.

So taking this figure (as I do) and dividing by the number of installed units, and then again by 12, gives the average monthly customer charge.

Anyway I've been expecting this to increase, given his previous statements. However all I keep seeing is the monthly value decreasing.

This time last year it was $23, at end December it was $21.8, today it is $21.24.

So where is this margin increase we were supposed to see with more direct selling of monitoring, and more importantly why do we seem to keep reducing the average monthly monitoring price.

If anyone has any ideas I'd love to know.

Every year inflation means costs increase, yet whenever the data exists to look at what we are selling for, our unit selling price seems to come down.

Its been the same with Auto over the last few years, prices seem to drop as we move forward.

At one time it was over $12, now it seems to be low $11.

This is fine if you are increasing volume by the stack load and making a profit. But we are not, and these things are not helping us get there.

Chris,

you need to look past the "cars on road" headline, and look at the key metrics.

This company needs to hit break even asap, and the only way it will achieve that quickly is with significant growth in Auto in the next year. (Which should have been last year and also the year before).

The last 3 Quarters have been 211k, 222k, and now 208k. I'm not seeing any growth there at all, in fact it's declined.

The much lowered Broker forecasts for the year were 1.3m auto sales. So far we have achieved 430k after 6 months.

that means we need 870k from the next 2 quarters. So 360K and then 510k in final Quarter.

Seems a big ask to me. Given what we have seen to date this year.

These are very important numbers, as break even cannot occur without them.

Pushing break even out further, (as is now possible) will see a decline in the share price further, and with the Magna convertible rearing its head Oct 26. If the share price is still stagnating and the 11p convert doesn't happen, See is on the hook to repay Magna $45m from memory. This could mean we have another year with no profit having to pay this back.

There are many key things to take on board in an update of this sort, but "cars on road" isn't one of them, and doesn't pay the bills. All that money has gone, and what we need now is significant Auto growth.

Someone coming fresh to this, may be ok with all the promises of SOPs starting this year. But we have heard all this stuff time and time again, so its hard to believe it really will happen.

I live in hope.

Well I have to say even I didn't expect an update this poor.

Lets look at the numbers.

Fleet delivers slightly less than the historical 1000 a month at about 900.

Sold but not installed increases just under 300.

So Fleet delivers same increase we have become used too. No inflection point there then.

Auto goes down to 208k, from 222k. This is after last Quarter was a massive disappointment, and they excused that with the excuse that the manufactures use this period to change the production lines.

Hence this should have been a stonking quarter., but wasn't.

US auto strikes being suggested as an excuse, (possible), but I haven't heard that mentioned in any US auto company results which were all good.

I need to understand why Auto was so poor this month.

Revenue quoted at 28% increase, which looks good at first glance, but only after they excluded the Magna Licencing.

They have done this because Magna paid more last year, and it makes this years number look better as a percentage.

Without this its only 5%.

It some ways I can see the sense in this as it reflects the core numbers better, however we were due the first Collins Licence payment this year, and there is no mention of that.

If that is included, then it's a bit misleading, because they are taking out license payments which help the figures look good, but not removing the ones that make them look worse.

We won't know until the HY results next month, but I'm very suspicious of financial spin happening here.

Surprised the price has held up so well given the update.

I sold over 50% of my holding first thing. The upside continues to decrease with every update, whilst the risks appear greater.

I was very overweight this share a while back, and seem to sell more after every update.

I took the view that the price had to fall back this morning, and thus if I changed my mind later I could buy them back cheaper. Trouble is nothing to date has changed my mind on any of the sells I've made, either now or previously.

I look forward to the 4 SOP's starting, and may buy back after the next KPIs. However we have results first which I think will also be poorly received, and hurt the price further.

Good luck all

Correct update tomorrow.

This should contain expected HY revenue figure, and KPI's. Don't expect any contract news to be released within this, that's not how they tend to operate.

However revenue details and KPI's are very significant to understanding current growth and product take up, plus wether they are meeting expectations re break even.

I'm expecting Auto sales to be 275K last Q. Less will be disappointing, and more encouraging,

I'd have said Fleet would be about 57k, before Paul inadvertently let slip Fleet at 60K in recent interview. So I'm expecting

60K now which would be a good result.

Lets hope tomorrow is the start of figures meeting expectations.

Blue Cruise = SEE.