Member Info for Boyobach

Ah, the good old Friday Club, where we must decide whether we are ruled by hearts or minds. And well done Bobblicious for pinning the tail on a bucking donkey (not sure I intended the letter b).

On trend, you’d have to say G is heading down: ever lower highs and lower lows since August 8th.. It probably will turn at some point but there’s frankly little sign of it yet. Until it breaks up or down from these recent but fairly established trends, which it must do when they converge, the price looks constrained to between 212 and 234, so I’ve gone for the middle: 223.

Boyobach 223
Rangor 230
Broadland 240
Bobblicious 246
Bunks 249
SnapDog 252
Comeonvog 254
Flyingfarmer 255
Ocelot 260
H 270
Withoutt 280
Cashless 550
Tartine 710

Well if Genel went as low as 158 ....

I've stuck with this from £10+ through 75p. Today's price is therefore good in relative terms.
Yep, it should get better and.... yep I'll be adding (at a tad below bunks' prices hopefully).
158? ... simply deja vu
Genel - you have to trade it. Don't go long and think it ends there.

Placed a sub-212 p limit buy today (would add 8%). Prepared to see this go much lower, however.

Unless there is a major factor of which we are unaware, this appears to be a minimum £3 stock on earnings and rather more on prospects. There are risks, of course - so this is not a recommendation.

withoutt 214
Boyobach 218
flyingfarmer 240
snapdog 254
ocelot 260

Bunks' comment last night: 208p appears to be the next significant support level from here...

I'd be inclined to agree with that, Bunks although I'm now factoring in 185. This may seem outrageous (and it's not crude deramping - I'm usually a bit on the optimistic side with G) but I like to hope for the best and plan for the worst. In the absence of any obvious news I can only assume that the drop is related to geopolitical issues rather than a fundamental business problem. G may not like it but maybe they'll need to restart the reporting of payments.

This is now so low that I feel I can avoid the risk of identifying the 'bottom' and catch it on a recovery. Will not, in any case be adding till I see whether the drop continues to 210 and below. GLA

So Genel and GKP are more or less back to early July prices, having given up about 22% (G) and 17.5% (GKP) respectively on peak (close/open) prices achieved in August. For the two KRI based producers, the market is at least being reasonably consistent.

Perhaps the price is reflecting the political situation in Baghdad, which is extremely fragile, with civil unrest escalating dramatically today in Basra. One would think the relative stability of the KRI would be sufficiently reassuring. However, it is in just such an environment that ISIS, or a similar group, could reemerge. The situation in Turkey is not helpful either.

For G to be testing this particular support level for the second time, after visiting the highs of early August in the meantime, is indeed disappointing and somewhat surprising. Perhaps not a time to buy, as the price could easily go either way at this juncture. Neither is it a time to sell, in my view - but that's easy to say when you are not yet underwater. I don't think that 215 will provide much of a foothold if it does continue downward, sub 210 in my view.

In the meantime it seems that we must trust that the company is making the progress it has indicated or sell. So just over another month to wait (Oct 10th). GLA

It was a 'buy' point for me today. Happy to make the odd 20p on the side, I don't see this going much over 260 for a while.

Speaking of which, the 30p drop of Aug 15th seems to be what effectively separates G's trading range from before and after that date. It's rather like a gap-down that hasn't closed. Were it not for that, G would be trading between 265 and 290 - probably about right at this stage.

Not wishing to put a dampener on things, Hawkey, but Genel's upsides are pretty much well understood and priced-in. Hopefully the trading results will not spring any surprises. In other words, the best we can hope for is a measured but positive lift in sp as they are seen to deliver on expectations. If, however, they are seen to disappoint then the price will react pdq.

Enjoy the cider and the sea breezes.

I sure as he'll don't believe the squiggly line theorists as to future share price movements, it's pure gobbledy-gook imo...

Fair enough JL - I'm with you to some extent but, to use an analogy, I never change lanes without checking my rear view mirrors. The past should never be relied upon to foretell the future, although it can give a pretty good guide of what will happen a) if nothing significant changes or b) where the sp might pause upwards or downwards if something major does happen .

For me, all the stochastics and bollinger stuff is an attempt to indicate forward direction from what has already happened. And it's often less effective than a quick visual on some basic straight lines: typically a tramline pair or wedge and the horizontals from the most prominent historical lows (support) and highs (resistance). The only credence I give Fibonacci based retraces is that, because the market uses those numbers, they tend to be a self fulfilling prophesy. They even fiddle them by adding 50% (not a Fib number). I don't believe they've ever been scientifically proven to be significant in their own right as far as stocks prices are concerned. They are probably best left in a work of fiction, like a Dan Brown novel maybe.

The G chart isn't telling me much at the mo except that over the next few days it'll probably struggle to get over 262 but should stay above 240 (although 232 stubbornly can't be ruled out). Let's hope it does better - Good Luck in the meantime (we all need some of that!).

Hawkey: 'We have a big wheelbarrow of cash to spend as Bina Bawi is 20$ to first oil.....'

There's nothing wrong with cash in my opinion Hawkey and there shouldn't be a rush to spend it in my view. In any case, G are not yet 'net cash' are they? But if they must go on a spree then I hope they'd be looking to diversify geopolitically to a non-KRI producer with known reserves and some promising assets. Don't forget they are planning to spud a well in Somaliland in just over a year's time so there's the prospect of needing some readies to exploit that.

But who knows - maybe New Age should be on your list? I know Tony's gone but they looked in that direction around three years ago...

I'm with Tiger on the analysis . Something of a wedge has developed in the sp, volatility reducing. This can precede a breakout in either direction, of course. I'll go 255

mark888man 246
Snap 254
Boyo 255
tiger100 257
bunks 273
PostieRemy 275
Hawkey 280
ocelot 285
Withoutt 289
Kevijoh 320
Rangor 339

I recommend due caution when assessing reports from Rudaw and Kurdistan24, they each have particular affiliations.
http://balkanspost.com/article/320/barzani-regime-media-ridiculed-kirkuk-crisis-rudaw-kurdistan24

That looks like it could be the remainder of their holding - or very close to it? Does that seem correct?

To be consistent, I should be saying it's kinda irrelevant to Genel.... except that what affects one Kurdi oiler tends to affect the others. The inference from this news is that Taconic feel there isn't much further mileage OR that there may be more mileage but that it's long term and/or the risks are too great. Any other reasons why Taconic feel they have better opportunities elsewhere?

Cheers Withoutt. Let's hope we can make our investments here work: Genel still owes me around half of the £40k that I lost almost exactly three years ago. Good luck to all invested here.

Thanks for the invite - I see there's a cluster around the current gravitational centre and I'll go for the gap amongst them at 270, although from a trading pov that's a dead spot for me. Hope Withoutt or the other top three get it. Alternatively, Broadland's price, or 4p below it, would be a buy opportunity that I'd probably grab.

Broadland 240
tiger100 244
mark888man 263
Carla. 265
Snap 268
Givetheinfo 269
Boyobach 270
Rangor 271
Bunks 273
PostieRemy 275
Indrid 283
Withoutt 289
H of H Hall 295
Ocelot 300

Yes, Hawkey - I've reluctantly got to agree about the gas. That 'jewel in the crown' (as once described by Malcy) seems even more elusive now than when Genel was initially listed at a tenner in 2011. Ultimately, the real value killer for Genel has, of course, been Taq Taq.
ATB

G v GKP

Just visiting from the ii site as there’s little about Genel there.

Interesting to see the comments relating to GKP here. The companies are, of course, as different as the type, quality, quantity and location of assets they believe they have buried in the ground. By the time you add management style and strategy to these factors they appear to only have their dependence on the KRG in common.

They each have a different investor history, which should not cloud an objective assessment based on today’s position, even though GKP’s lack of indebtedness has come at a hefty price for those shareholders who experienced the restructuring and, I guess, constantly think about the $500m equity exchanged for debt and effective dilution by around 95% (if my recollection is correct - dyor). Thanks to the hit they took, the company survived and appears to be in much better shape for today’s investor.

However, I can’t say I can see any benefits to Genel in a merging of the two and I would not welcome it. They’ve got enough eggs in the Kurdish basket as it is without adding a lot of relatively ‘difficult’ heavy sour product from the same political region. If there are any synergies then I see them more weighted in GKP’s favour, if only for the blending that apparently needs to be done to make Shaikan product more marketable. Besides, Genel will need its cash and resources to develop the gas.

Both companies look like they could well reward their investors and hopefully many (including me) will fully recover from the various setbacks of 2014 to 2016. But each to his own and I’d prefer the freedom to invest in either or both according to their separate progress and good fortune.

Both companies have had a good run in 2018 and, to me, Genel’s sp seemed to get rather ahead of itself in May, which presented a great trading opportunity - as has this month. I’m quite happy to see that level of volatility (around 60p) continue, especially if the underlying trend is only taking the average price steadily upwards by around 10p a month from here. A quick rise to £4 (my personal target for a number of reasons) would be nice but potentially not as profitable.