Member Info for Boyobach

For Friday 9th November

A disappointing end to a disappointing week in which G was the only firework on the 5th, fizzling for a while before burning out and leaving a bad smell.

https://invst.ly/95q5j

Early trading seems to be catch-up time, especially for the two KRI based producers, if Brent rises or falls outside market hours and today was a good example.
GKP and RDS had ended Thursday back in sync with each other but GKP tends to track Brent more closely, so fell sharply in early trading before dithering: first back up to briefly rejoin its bigger brother, then back down to join buddy G. RDS sailed on with barely a shrug - ending the week as it started despite Brent’s fall.

G ended up as the runt of the litter on Friday - having pretty much sync’d back up with Brent by Thursday evening it dived as much as GKP on Friday’s open but there was little dithering to speak of - it stayed down. Easily the widest variation of the bunch this week, G finally finished well below Brent, drawn down by the gravitational pull of the support and trend lines around 200, where it finally ended up. For some reason GKP finally kept G company. The sell-off of both KRI co’s appears quite overdone - but is it now over?

The conclusion, if there is one, is that the outlook for next next week possibly falls somewhere between 190 and 225. https://invst.ly/95q4x I guess we’ll soon find out.

I was referring to the wedge chart in that last post.

but what next?

Well vog, it looks very likely to hit the red line - especially with Brent falling. Then it'll either bounce slowly or drop through to the blue, giving it a second chance to recover. If those two don't hold it then it's going to have some downward momentum isn't it? What interests me more, oddly enough, is what will happen next time it encounters the purple line as it climbs back up. At worst PoO shouldn't fall much below $65, which is much better than sub $50.

Let’s lay to rest the theme that G’s sp is often perversely out of step with PoO.

Day to day, minute by minute, it can be - but over time PoO has an influence along with additional factors like other business fundamentals, wider market moves, sentiment etc.

Comparison charts can superficially tell a very different story depending on what start date and time is chosen for the 0% rebasing. So here is one that compares G with Brent from 17th August. Why that date? Well PoO was very similar then to now and G had just ‘normalised’ after the peaks of June-August and the H1 report.

https://invst.ly/95fgv

This gives a pretty clear picture, showing when and how G has reacted to PoO and when other factors seem to be driving the price. It shows the consequential and progressive divergence that has occurred, which has resulted in G being around 7.5% down relative to Brent over the period to yesterday’s close.

Hopefully this will remove some of the frustration that can build up when the sp is watched and analysed too closely.

Not a ‘B’ movie from the fifties, the wedge was mentioned here a while back and well before G’s fall to 195 - firstly by Bottmzup. It never went away, of course, and I decided to have another look at it today after G’s disappointing attempt to get over 228 this week. Previously I’d drawn the top of the wedge as per the grey line in the following chart - deliberately ignoring August’s brief flirtation with 300p - but redrawing the top as shown here in purple would add a possible explanation for G’s performance this week. It will be interesting to see how the sp performs as it comes into contact with any of the three coloured 'boundary' lines in this chart - which it is certain to do within the next month.

https://invst.ly/959xn

For Thursday 8th November

A dog of a day for G, hit hardest of the three oil co’s with the fall in PoO
https://invst.ly/9569n
- presumably a dose of bad sentiment and maybe jittery sellers etc or folks taking small profits from the recent lows around 200. Anyway, knocked back to bottom of the pack and also knocked right off course as regards the progressive recovery seen in the last two weeks since 195 https://invst.ly/9568f . The writing was on the wall at 11.45 (not that I was watching it then) with the price action strongly indicating a continuing fall. The fall arrested at 212, a penny above the trend line, in the afternoon, followed by a small recovery to 213 via 215. Just a pause? Who knows ? - but below 211 would indicate a further loss likely to be experienced.

Notes about G chart - trying to be consistent with:
Pink horizontals: subjective resistance/support.
Red diagonals: (significant lines - bad to cross them.
Green diagonals: apparent medium term trends, tramlines.
Blue diagonals: possible longer term trends, tramlines.
Shaded: current trading path.

Thanks guys. I'm just hoping to remove the mystery - and frustration - about G's price seeming to be contra to PoO and the market on occasions. My summary is superficial, based just on how the market seems to be going - Lemming, Ocelot etc supply much more on fundamentals.and the background. Ultimately we (holders) are presumably here because we believe (in a rational rather than a 'blind faith' sense) that there is value here that the market does not recognise. GLA

For Wednesday 7th November

All three oil co’s followed Brent down after about 11am - all with similar shaped curves. https://invst.ly/94pfj G lagging GKP (which seemed to anticipate the fall) by about an hour. However, G has held on to much of the gain that it established over the others early on Monday. On the downside, as said earlier, G has encountered resistance ( a falling trend) near 228 and this doesn’t bode well for any return to the upper 250s. Even 240 doesn’t seem likely anytime soon. At this rate any Friday Club finish in the 230s would be good, 238 would be exceptional, https://invst.ly/94pm4 .

Bunks - actually the explanation is quite simple now I look at it. The resistance around 228 is sadly confirmation of the longer term downtrend that appears on a few of my recent charts. Closer look here: https://invst.ly/94ih0
It suggests that 234 could be the next obstacle and the mid 240s could be top for a while..

Jimmy - I doubt your screen is broken, just G stuck at under 228 for the moment. 15' looks like this: https://invst.ly/94hcb

Bunks - yes, seems to be stalled not sure why.

OilPrice .com article:
https://tinyurl.com/y9sdxouj

OK Hawkey, kinda makes sense now.
Actually G tracked Brent pretty well from 5th October up to 1st November (see link), during which period G has been recovering from previous weakness. Presumably it would have risen even more if PoO had remained constant

https://invst.ly/94aok

Hawkey, where did you get these numbers? We haven't seen 248 in nearly a month (unless I was asleep)
5th Nov
Genel £2.48
Oil 83$

Yes, G does follow oil except when it doesn't - for company specific, regional or market reasons which may dominate from time to time. You wouldn't want the sp to follow oil on the day they announce vastly improved CPRs would you?

Cheers

For Tuesday 6th November:

Brent took a drop and the likes of RDS and GKP echoed that slightly. https://invst.ly/947lu .
Meanwhile G improved on yesterday’s close but intraday is not hitting the highs seen yesterday or last Friday.
On a 1hour chart there’s evidence that things are stalling at 228 https://invst.ly/9483w and that this week’s Friday Club will be lucky to see 238 unless things perk up, whilst a drop back to 220 also remains on the cards. However, on the face of it, G is progressing steadily, with rather less volatility than a month ago.

'too 'king long' ?

For Monday 5th Nov

Whilst Brent, RDS and GKP ended the day pretty much ‘in sync’, G carved its own path upward towards 230, hitting 228 at one point, and finishing a couple of % above the others on a comparative basis. Clearly a rather G-specific improvement in price and the first time it has closed above 222 in two weeks - something of a milestone.

https://invst.ly/93r3n for comparison chart, rebased ot 08.00 today.

https://invst.ly/93r30 for G price channel.

Hi Hydrogen -

At any time, G will move under the influence of PoO, the wider oil industry, the market, local political factors or company specific news - hopefully the comparison charts will indicate which of these is dominating at any given time

My own feeling about last week is that G had been oversold in the previous couple of weeks, when it dropped to around 195. Last week effectively corrected this and I happen to think that it is now near the bottom of it’s ‘normal’ range. By ‘normal’ I mean the 220-260 range it dropped into after the August update. I’d expect it to trade in that range - and to track fairly loosely either side of RDS - subject to any significant change in the main factors mentioned above. In terms of stepping up a level, I think that requires some further news or a confirmed improvement in the cash position.

The problem with Friday Club is, of course, that it sets a target that’s meaningless from a trading pov. However, it does present an opportunity for folks to say whether they think the trend is up, flat, or down - and how strongly.

Here’s a 15’ chart showing the last couple of months, with my view of the long-term trend (pale shaded) the current short-term (darker shaded) and some potential support, resistance and trend boundaries etc. You’ll quickly see that, although G has this week made steady progress towards redeeming itself, my FC entry is actually just above the level I think G is likely to achieve next week based on the chart. Why is that? Well, partly based on trading strategy. Being currently overweight, I’m looking to sell a few % of what I hold - so I invariably set a speculatively high limit order in the hopes of catching a spike, so why not do something similar with FC? I’m also hoping that the downtrend is not as bad, or permanent, as the rather gloomy chart tells me it is and that the ‘achievable’ top is still around 258. Time, as usual, will tell.
https://invst.ly/937yh

Just for completeness, this week’s final comparison chart.
https://invst.ly/92spd
For consistency each week’s chart will start with all the prices rebased (0%) on Monday 08.00 UK Time, so the end of week % differences you see here will be removed from next week’s chart.

JL 229
Without 233
COV 234
Stockbuster 235
KevinH 237
Dhc 239
Bunks 243
Boyo 247
Hasiba 252
Ocelot 260
Rangor 265
H 270