Member Info for Boyobach

Good to see that dealt with - excellent performance today by G as this comparison chart demonstrates very clearly:
https://invst.ly/92lsq

...firming up as a barrier. Maybe it wouldn't have been such a problem if PoO hadn't weakened so much in the last week.

If we wake up to find PoO at 72, then just remember that October & November are historically the weakest months by a fair margin. This old article is one of many that explains:
http://stockmarketalmanac.co.uk/2015/02/monthly-seasonality-of-oil/

Meanwhile this paper (published in May) about longer term prospects for oil is quite interesting, assuming the data is correct. It includes comments re the Iran sanctions issue towards the end of the article:
https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/crude-oil-the-next-5-years

Bunks - I agree with your source on PoO. I'm using Investing.com XBR/USD (as per my comparison charts).

I do hope 222 isn’t the ‘new’ major resistance, replacing the old 257 !

It’s the blue line here: https://invst.ly/91r5j on a 15 minute chart.

It used to be a good support level until it got broken on the 22nd.

G seriously needs to get above it asap to regain the trading range it previously occupied (ie from 222 up to around 257) and to put it back on a mildly positive - as opposed to currently negative - trend. Until that happens G isn’t going to make any headway and JL may as well take some profits (Joke! - do not sell purely on the basis of any comment I make).

Rangor- Don't pay for charts unless you need to. I use Investing.com for my charts nowadays (as you can see from the charts I post). I used to use the Interactive Investor facility - but they discontinued it and, in any case, the Investing.com system works better. I'm still learning all the tweaks that it provides.
I'm not a chartist and don't rate a lot of the indicators etc etc - I just use simple charts to aid me in setting a course - just like you'd use basic history and trends to give you an educated guess as to what might happen next or, perhaps more importantly, when things have changed I suggest you look at material written by John Burford - again some of it used to be available free on-line. I don't necessarily agree with all he says, but I found his simplified approach a good starting point. Don't let idiots and jargon put you off - very often two straight lines on a candle chart provide 80% of what you need to decide on whether your money is invested in the right thing. Good Luck.

Hi Rangor

Anyone who makes out it is easy, or they never make mistakes would be misleading you. Genel has been very tough for me. Lost a large amount as it went down, which I've only 50% recouped - but my losses were due to naivety and a failure to analyse what the sp was likely to do under the prevailing circumstances. I now use charts (did not then) as much to tell me when an sp is going off the rails as to guide me when to buy or sell. It's not foolproof but it makes the odds much better than gut instinct for me. ATB

Not sure I understand your numbers and dates there JL but, important point, do I take it that with G (or indeed any share) that you are either 'all in' or 'all out' at any given point in time? I've always found that a risky and unprofitable way to approach things.

I currently have limit sell orders set for two tranches of G which together account for around 25% of what I currently hold. If they trigger then the profit effectively reduces the net cost per share of my remaining holding. If the price falls then I'll re-acquire at a suitable low, if it continues upwards then I'll top up at the low of the next cycle (even if it happens to be at a higher price). Providing I make a profit on each cycle it doesn't really matter at what level I add providing my net cost per share for the entire holding remains well below the current market price.

So, because I've recently bought some G at 200+ and am now overweight , my current average cost per share has risen into the 140s. When I sell them this figure will drop back to less than it was at the start of the cycle. It's a bit like a pump - priming it is the difficult part but, once it is running.....

Re-setting the G/GKP/RDS/Brent 15 minute chart to start from Monday, https://invst.ly/91f6n , we can see this week’s progress by G relative to the others more clearly - especially the first hour of action this morning. Something other than PoO seems to be driving things at the moment, as Brent is slightly down on Monday’s reference price.

Despite yesterday’s pull back, G is nicely back on track on the 1 hour chart: https://invst.ly/91f7e

Ah... I'm certainly old Hawkey....the days of vinyl .... quite bizarre that people more recently think it sounds good. - it was only good when compared to cassette, although compressed digital can be pretty dire too.

Oil Price: totally depends on Saudis now as they (together with Russia) can apparently plug the Iran gap (if indeed there really is a gap). I liked this quote from Malcy https://www.malcysblog.com today :
Russia and the Saudis are playing the ‘I can produce more than you can’ game as the former have eked out another few barrels and the latter remaining confident of 11 if not 12m b/d over the winter. What is for sure is that they will both have to turn the taps down big time come 2019 or it will be $50 they are looking at.

Somaliland will be a pure bonus if it happens. It's another 'autonomous' place isn't it? Genel seems to have a penchant for them. I think it's just a distraction and will be shocked if it proves to be worth anything - so will the market.

G needs to bring on the gas!!!

I really think G will settle into the 220 - 250 price range now until something dramatic happens. An 'event' that affects investor value, like I mentioned a while back, is needed to move the sp to the next level. A Taq Taq upgrade or progress with gas are the only imminent things I feel can do this....

Ha Ha Hawkey - you asked if the name RAK meant anything, I don't suppose you expected that answer!

RAK Petroleum and Gas .... mmmm .... was being deliberately obtuse - - the record label means more to me however.

Quick recap:
Genel holds 55% of the TTOPCO partnership with Addax Petroleum Corp., Houston, part of the Sinopec Group. Genel’s working interest is 44%......
[Addax] farmed into the the Taq Taq block operated by Turkish company Genel Energy [prior to Vallares RTO] in 2005 and in 2006 signed a shareholders' agreement with Genel Energy which led to the formation of Taq Taq Operating Company Limited (TTOPCO)....
Addax Petroleum was acquired by the Sinopec Group in August 2009....

This is O/T

RAK - CCS - Alexis Korner?
There were a few other artists... they were ok.

Dates us maybe Hawkey? Or perhaps you have a different link?

Not a bad day today for G as we can see from https://invst.ly/90mqz ,where G has finally rejoined the PoO party after a week in the wilderness, coming within 1% of all the others this morning.

In terms of keeping pace with RDSb (rebased to May), G is still around 12% down on its 10th May price - whilst RDSb is down just over 8 - so our cash would apparently have done better with RDS over that very specific period. https://invst.ly/90n6e . Of course it’s a great deal more down on its summer high of about 295 - but it’s general parity with RDS that I’m looking at here.

So what next? Well here’s a flight of fancy, https://invst.ly/90nhb , that shows the short-term track it’s currently on, dark shaded, maybe for a week or two if we’re lucky and provided PoO and the market throw no spanners. The pink lines show what G can sometimes do in terms of a fast rise for up to two or three days when the mood takes it. Such rises happen up to twice a month when there’s good news and sentiment about. However, I don’t expect anything that spectacular right now.

The lighter shaded track is the bad news, if last week’s drop turns out to mark a new falling trend, as the upper limit could now be down to 250 and falling. We’ll soon know if the sp gets up to that level - will it be the new ‘top’ or can the sp still punch through to 258? We also don’t want to see the sp drop below that red line at the bottom right of the chart, although that’s where the new trend will take it if it remains in control. But maybe, ultimately, red will be the dominant line that pushes the price back upwards if/when it comes into contact with it again.

Having 'caught up' with PoO (and RDSb) it'll be interesting to see if there's any further enthusiasm for G. I'm guessing it may peak at around 220/220 for a while unless sentiment picks up.
https://invst.ly/90fwj

I hope you are right about 230+, DHC. As I'm in the 'overweight' phase of my trading cycle with G, I have targets other than my Friday Club entry uppermost on my mind!

Just reading your note quickly, LBW, my immediate thought is that the Kurds of the KRI are always divided - don't trust Rudaw's view on the political scene, for example, as it is a KDP mouthpiece. Secondly, there are a number of state controlled oil entities - I think these are probably the ones that Abadi was intending to 'transfer' to INOC, with a view to integrating the KRG controlled entities later (if/when they've been handed over). I don't think this refers to any planned nationalisation. Iraq needs investment and also needs to free itself from dependence on oil - I can't see nationalisation as a helpful route at this stage.

GKP was a bit quicker off the blocks this morning in terms of regaining parity with PoO, having come adrift from it, like G, over the last week. However, G seems to have made up smartly in the last half hour. Needs to be around 218 currently to restore what it lost against PoO last week.
https://invst.ly/90dvz

It’s worth noting how closely, once it had dropped back in mid August after the H1 report, G’s sp tracked oil and gas major RSDb until 19th October. Why G’s price then fell around 8% more than the benchmark, seemingly in pure response to the drop in PoO, is not immediately apparent. Perhaps we’ll see a suitable correction in the next few days?

https://invst.ly/907tg

JL 209.
Without 215
Broadland 220
Boyobach 225
COV 234
Flyingfarmer 235
H 240
Ocelot 250
Rangnor 260