Member Info for Boyobach

As other factors influencing G's sp reduce, the influence of POO becomes more evident in the sp movements.

Latest comparison chart shows the current state of play. Note that the centre line of the green band is equivalent to an sp of about 240p.

https://invst.ly/8wqyv

Fair comments Hawkey.

The present management have been running the company well and the incentive to maximise shareholder value is presumably rather greater when one also holds a a fair number of them. In the great scheme of things there are other issues to focus on. Besides, Lemming's calculations seem to indicate why the sp is in the region that it is, which is down to free cash flow rather than management style and also fits pretty much with what I have been saying about the market 'zeroing-in' on a value in the region of 250p - although, recent price movements (ie over the last week) have caused me to revise my expectations down to 235p +/- 15p roughly, with the prospect of the range being progressively squeezed even more and possibly breaking downwards if long term PoO continues to weaken.

Fair comments Hawkey.

The present management have been running the company well and the incentive to maximise shareholder value is presumably rather greater when one also holds a a fair number of them. In the great scheme of things there are other issues to focus on. Besides, Lemming's calculations seem to indicate why the sp is in the region that it is, which is down to free cash flow rather than management style and also fits pretty much with what I have been saying about the market 'zeroing-in' on a value in the region of 250p - although, recent price movements (ie over the last week) have caused me to revise my expectations down to 235p +/- 15p roughly, with the prospect of the range being progressively squeezed even more and possibly breaking downwards if long term PoO continues to weaken.

... showing higher inventory levels. Oil price plummets, assisting G down, it seems.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Large-Crude-Build-Forces-Oil-Prices-Lower.html.

... according to this article in oilprice.com (ICYMI)

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/US-Shales-Glory-Days-Are-Numbered.html

Interesting figures, Lemming - thanks for contributing this stuff.
What is the E&P industry average for FCF to Marcap ? I seem to recall that it was recently quoted as 15% - is that right?
Cheers.

For the last three weeks G has hit 255 or better shortly after opportune lows, which has contributed to the profitability of Boyo's Financial System, or BFS (the letters can stand for a number of less printable terms which I'll let you figure out). However, I suspect this week's takings could be markedly down. I'm thinking that we'll be lucky to see 250 although the market is clearly in a state of indecision today, calling a halt to the previous three days of decline yet allowing the intraday sp to puncture some significant lines on my chart, which discouraged any further buying on my part . Meanwhile that 'wedge' pattern is surprisingly still intact, given that today's closing price put us pretty much back to the open and previous close, so today was not the dramatic herald of impending doom that I thought at about 10am this morning. I don't think I'll tune in till lunchtime tomorrow and just leave this week's takings (if there are any) in the hands of the limit orders.

Yes a 'doji' day - the star doji candlestick reputedly often signals the stop (not necessarily reversal) of the recent trend.

In the circumstances, a good end to the day.

Excellent post about the gas Hydrogen. I was beginning to think I was the only one around here who thinks that gas actually is key and that the reason the sp has backed away from 300p is because the market id very disappointed with progress on that front.

I wouldn’t say Gkp is down a much larger %, less than 0.5% between them now and circa 1% earlier - interesting....

Yes Bunks - maybe something wrong with my Investing.com feed - it said more than -4% earlier for GKP, hence my comment. Doesn't really matter, it does not bode well at all with all the indications pointing downwards if 220 does not hold.
212 would be level with a pause in the rise during late April, it's also close to a trend applied to 185 from the same month. I would expect it to hold there unless there is something serious amiss that we are not aware of.

Well, next stop 212p, I would say before 185. However today's move below a couple of key markers is indeed a bad sign. I see GKP is down a much larger % at this stage whilst the 350 Oil Producers is down only slightly - so presumably this is some regional effect rather than something general to oil and the market or specific to G.

However our board is not the swashbuckling band that we previously had ...

Good! although Wayward and Nat swashbuckling? I hardly think so. G was set up as a pretty sure fire earner with a very strong balance sheet and good governance. That's the only reason it has actually survived all the disasters.

Interesting that you think it should spend the cash on something purely speculative rather than a well structured consolidation plan and exploitation of proven resources. Can't say I think that's smart. But I'll hopefully be out before that sort of nonsense happens.

Taffy appears to have spotted that Friday Club could be a Wealth and Safety risk to vulnerable folk who might naively think that the closing price next Friday has some particular significance and consequently make investment decisions based upon the random predictions of a disparate group of people who, frankly, are picking any number within about 50p - sorry Hawkey - 100p of the current price. He's just being sensible, someone has to be and it may as well be Taffy.

Hear hear!

Common sense, Taff.
It can't just be a cymreig thing - right?
Good luck with GKP - it should be able to just keep doing what it's doing forever as far as oil as a major energy source is concerned, unlike G (why do people insist on comparing them? Pointless on so many levels)

Boyo: 239 Please

Bunks 255
Withoutt 280
Hawkey 330

....but all what you mentioned can apply to any share you and I trade...

Huh? er No! OK - I'll explain the last five months below but first I'll answer that line (above)

I don't have any other shares where the company is too small (at the moment) to exploit a big chunk of it's potentially valuable resources.
I don't have any other shares in companies that have a similar record of disappointments.
I don't have any other shares in companies with a comparable level of risk.
I don't have any other shares where PI's get upset even though the sp is + 150% (90p to 230p) in less than a year.

(tough luck on the guys who bought when the price was obviously in overshoot territory, like 'fans' only turning up when their local team finally makes it to the Premier league after years in the wilderness)

G is not like any other share I hold and everything I mentioned is pretty specific to G at the moment. Anyway, this is bulletin board not a text book. Other folks are able to post about swearing at their PC because of a few p up or down without explaining or apparently realising that this is what shares do. That's fine - just not very rational. Genel has recently had three basic values, and has cycled around them by + or - 20p as volatile shares will invariably do. You'll know this after 35 years. The short-term price of oil is a minor consideration while all that stuff has been going on, so the effect of it is hardly detectable. Those basic recent values for G are:
280p - The market overshot going up (like it often does).
220p - The market overshot its downward correction (I hope)
250p - The market currently seems to think a realistic value may be around here somewhere (the Goldilocks price, if you like fairytales).
The market may stick around here until it gets spooked or excited by something - don't ask me what or when, although the full year and some positive CPRs would be good in my book.

Now, let's chill out and enjoy Friday night. All the Best.

Blimey Hasiba, you want we to read all my old posts for you and distil anything relevant? That's a devilish type of torture!

I think there are business reasons and market behaviour reasons why G's sp is being held back. Just my opinion.

Try these explanatory posts, roughly in order:

Thursday 10.05
Thursday 15.50 (last sentence probably sums the business reasons all up)
Wednesday 11.11
Wednesday 17.16

Probably earlier ones but I can't be a*sed to look back further. Charts are easier than words but, as you point out, they don't explain any background. That's why I've had to do more writing than I'd like this week. Plainly it hasn't all been read - which is fair enough - long posts rarely are.

No research fees - my pleasure.

Why is she struggling to clear 230? The others are off and away...

Bunks - for G today, given this week's particular headwinds, closing above 230 will be a good result.

Some here (not you Bunks) complain about not understanding why the price is down or want to punch their PC's but all this has been explained by others and me to the point of boredom. As Hawkey has said, staying glued to the screen and bulletin board is not good for those of a certain disposition. G should eventually go up quite markedly - maybe not just yet. But for those that worry about every + or - 20p in the sp it's not a good investment and their doctor would probably advise selling asap.

Why would we directly get involved when its not our field of expertise?...

Interesting Hawkey. I remember that at one time (I wish I had references for this) some folks described Genel as a Gas company that happened to have good oil assets. Clearly, as far as hydro-carbs and green futures go, Gas is the place to be. RDS obviously going for that future path. I've always seen G's core prosperity in gas - and that's still where I think it will blossom (if it ever does). The oil (for me) is a means to funding that objective. I know about Somaliland blah blah etc - but I always thought that was a way of bumping up the Vallares/Genel assets for the prospectus. Cynical perhaps. G made more of a push for oil offshore Malta, of course, but threw in the towel there - they've not had much luck prospecting have they?

Was that a ? directed at me Vog?

Fair point - it's purely a chart based risk. As that wedge tightens it's gotta go up or down. My buy today gambled on 'up' and the chart indicated that, if I was intent on buying, 228 ish was a reasonable place to do it. Beyond that my chart is currently quite neutral.
Small print: Always remember that other chart users are available and that it isn't a perfect science, Ts and Cs apply. DYOR.

Frankly it looks 50/50 - so I'm not making recommendations