Member Info for Boyobach

Given the rest of the market, G did well to tread water today.

257/260 still remains the next challenge. However, with this week's attempt stalling today and two previous ones (28/8 and last week) having failed, I suspect we may have to wait until the 'update' next week to see any significant break upwards - even though it should contain no surprises: just confirmation that progress is being made, payments have been received and debt is reducing as per guidance.

Yes, a disappointing start today. But it may yet make an attack on the 257/260 level that is currently blocking the way.
https://invst.ly/8rjva

Slipping back into even the high 240's, however, would now be more of a setback.

For the last couple of weeks the sp has been on a similar underlying trend to the one it enjoyed through April & May:
https://invst.ly/8r5-2

If it finally pushes through 257, as it should on today's form, then 273/275 look reasonable prospects for Friday.

GKP seems to have hit something of a ceiling around 290, meanwhile.

264 Please.

Bit of a surprise knock back today. It seems that, since mid-August, Mr Market thinks G is only worth 240 +/- 20p.

That's a handy enough trading range and I guess that's why there were enough sellers around to quench the price today. It'll be interesting to see how far it drops back before re-testing the 260 level.

Ha! The bleedy charts only say what we all know, Hawkey:

We are stuck below 257, which G must overcome quickly or drop back. So we could either retrace to the 240s or move to the next level 265- 270. Prospects for Friday are obviously getting lower with this morning's pull back, so the most optimistic line currently gives 270. But who knows?
https://invst.ly/8prbg

Yes - great for all if Hasiba takes it.

Somehow I think a 'wobble' in the mid seventies will give it to Ocelot or the other guy... er... you know....
Withoutt is obviously not without a chance either.

It's a pity 257 did as expected and slowed things down, I guess 273 will do the same - tedious but oddly reassuring. Let's hope the upward push gets going again tomorrow.

Yes. At this pace, 270 by close of play Friday looks perfectly feasible provided there are no snags around 258. I'll be very happy with that for a five day haul.

By request from the ii Board, here's a link to my updated G chart, originally posted just over a week ago.

It shows the progress made by G last week in breaking upwards out of the down trend that had been holding it down for over a month. Momentum and RSI are obviously looking better as a consequence. The next target is logically 257 - maybe it 'll soon get comfortably back into the 270's, a good place to start the next upward phase.

My Friday Club entry is low - based on a more pessimistic view and the possibility of a bit of resistance below 257 slowing things down. But today's sp in the first two hours is a good omen.

https://invst.ly/8o-22

Boyobach 242
Flyingfarmer 244
Klassic 246
Bobblicious 249
broadland 250
Bunks 253
Jandialbi 255
Rangor 260
Ocelot 270
Hawkey 279
Withoutt 280

Broadland making a move on the inside rail, neck and neck as I type...

240 would bode well for a break back upwards...after a month of solid decline from 265!

I agree Hawkey: any pre-restructure GKP holders who are still invested in it deserve the very best of luck.

From an objective point of view, I also agree that the companies can really only be compared after the equity dilution and consolidation ie from 2017 onwards, when GKP had been effectively re-booted equity-wise. Any comparisons prior to that are meaningless as GKP was effectively finished without the equity for debt arrangement.

We must forget all that pre-2017 history when evaluating it today.

Tartine: 'Taq Taq was downgraded massively (surely management has to take some blame for it)'

Would that be the management that melted away long ago - after the sp stalled then dived, taking their tasty bonus scheme down with it? Was that the Wayward crew? I'm not suggesting Taq Taq was ever talked-up, of course, but I seem to recall hints & mutterings about water some time before the downgrade . I know nothing about oil production but sense that some people who did and who also knew the field had their doubts. It's all history now and, to give them their due, the present management has so far been prudent and steady. I'd now like to see cash accumulate and a more substantive plan and timeline for the gas. I've waited nearly five years - the last three of which mostly under water like Taq Taq - so last month's drop back from £3 is a minor glitch as far as I'm concerned.

It's apparent that GKP is relatively more attractive to investors at the moment and it's fairly easy to see why.
It isn't the company it once was when Toddy was around.
The investors of yesteryear took a huge hit enabling the debt to be all but expunged.
It sits on one massive asset which can apparently generate cash in perpetuity.
It isn't particularly exciting - there's some risk but it isn't dependant on much further development.

Genel has arguably better quality assets but not so limitless. Taq Taq's downgrades were a massive setback.
The gas has always been years away - the market price appears to be based on the assumption it may never happen.
G can generate cash for rather fewer years.
G still has net debt, market will wait till that's gone - wants to see the company deliver something other than 'exciting prospects', after seven years of 'being patient'.

The market has previously priced G ahead of results - and got badly bitten. It's not about to repeat the mistake.

Just saying. I hold G not GKP but sometimes wonder why.

That Genel Trading and Ops Update is on the 10th October isn't it Hawkey (according to their Tweet) ?

Yep- fair point about the UT Bunks.

Wasn't the total volume today about 465k? The UT volume is something else isn't it?

I'm neutral about your point, Bunks, just don't think the UT is relevant. I stand to be corrected.

Not necessarily 'an event' - but buying pressure needs to build sufficiently to push the price out of it's current trend or, of course, drop sufficiently to make it fall below it. When that happens prices often reverse briefly to 'kiss the line' then continue to step up or down to the next level before flattening out for the process to repeat..

Pictures better than words: here's a link to the chart: https://invst.ly/8miy- , which I'll also put on ii.

The grey lines on the left show the clear rising path Genel was on up to June 6th, kissing the line on June 8th then flat (albeit very volatile) until now (blue horizontal lines). Red shows the rather selective recent short -term trend that I think it's currently on. Hopefully short lived - but if it continues to fall at that rate below 229 then it will obviously not be a good sign for short term holders who are nervous of being under water at, say 220.

I would imagine it impossible to answer...

Au contraire mon ami, it's incredibly simple - as is the whole trend thing. A straight price trend doesn't take any account of news, like oil price etc. Just get a chart, preferably candlesticks and draw one line that touches the tops of the highest highs over a chosen period - I chose from Aug14th cos Aug 8th provided a far gloomier picture. Some use closing, some use intra-day prices. Then draw another line doing the same for the lowest lows. Sometimes the lines benefit from slight adjustment to capture a more representative picture, especially if you can create a parallel pair (the tramline trading technique), et voila. It ain't rocket science and it won't predict an event - it'll just tell you where the price is tending to head and where it might turn, bearing in mind the period you've chosen. It will tend to pinpoint support and resistance levels. With a share like BT you get very definite trends over years. You choose the periods according to whether your interest is short term (maybe hours) or long term (maybe years) - remembering that longer term trends tend to dominate the shorter ones.
What trends mainly tell you, perhaps more importantly, is when the price is starting to move out of the trend and how significant the change might be. There was an obvious change in trend for Genel around the 11th June, and when the sp later failed to get back up to 290 at the end of that month it was fairly obvious the price had flattened out, with lows of 229 established soon after. Recently it's gone below 229 but not low or long enough enough to be a major concern yet. That level/slightly falling trend limiting the price between 220 ish and 290 ish has been dominant ever since June . The sp may well get back to the 290's and keep testing that level but it will have to break the June-September trend if it's going to progress any further.