Member Info for Boyobach

The Russell 2000 serves as a benchmark for small-cap stocks in the United States......

Of no interest to me, Hasiba, so I don't follow it and basically don't care. I also don't look at moving averages much, as a visual inspection of a straight candlestick chart. tells me what I need to know. 'Death Star' sounds a bit over dramatic to me. So I'm not the guy to comment other than to say I think it has little bearing on G's prospects, which are more linked to OP, resource inventory and exploitation of that resource.

JL: At least I know who shafted me....do you?....

As a PI you are invariably shafted by yourself.
Certainly, whenever I have been shafted, and I analyse it, I realise I made an error of judgement.

bunks: Back to where we started Monday morning ......nothing surprises me anymore

It should surprise you mate, mathematically G should be at 194 tonight (checkout RDS and GKP movements today).

G storming along in bad times? Now that's a genuine reason to be cheerful.

Hi Hydrogen - yes there were a couple of percentage calculations today that were casting a bigger shadow than necessary, so I thought it best to point them out. It's not that I'm perfect though - easy to get a digit in the wrong place.

Much as I like H's reasons to be cheerful, I don't tend to flog through the whole list every time it's posted. I rather prefer a shorter list of Reasons to be Positive and Realistic - if we are too darn cheerful we could easily sleep-walk into owning shares in a total pup.
The fact that G continues to pop upwards despite the wider oil-related market moving downwards with the OP does indicate that it's been undervalued for a month or two and a correction is potentially progressing in the background whilst the main tide is naturally flowing in the opposite direction.

For Wednesday, November 14th

Well quite a day and the comparison chart is worth a look at.
https://invst.ly/97kvd

G struggled to hold onto 192 and spiked down towards 183 in early trading, my next support level. Interesting to see that slight overreaction in the morning, with
buyers certainly coming in at that level. But then watch how G powers upward against the tide. Pretty impressive v RDS (the most stable member of the pack for a variety of reasons, not least of all size!)

Good to see G’s resilience as the slide in OP continues to dominate and will no doubt do so for some weeks to come. The G chart shows the importance of resistance and trends - there’s obviously a fair amount of support in the 190-200 region. Looks like a few stop losses got triggered when the spike below occurred.
https://invst.ly/97ku-

Notice how GKP quite slavishly follows OP now - compare this with G and RDS. G would clearly be a lot higher if the OP wasn’t working against it. A pity some of G’s revenue isn’t coming from gas!

No one knows where the OP will go but some oversupply was likely once the price hit $70 as US production can ramp up quite quickly and the Iran sanctions thing was seriously hyped up - many sources had warned that the effect would not be as great as some had suggested. US trade policy is causing a global slow-down. Added to which November and December are weak months for OP.

A perfect storm, which will blow over once OPEC gets a grip and shale producers realise they can ultimately get more bucks by producing less for longer. G well positioned to bounce upwards once OP stabilises.

Reasons to be realistic....

Hydrogen: 300 to 190 is a 45% fall. .....

Its a 110p fall. 110/300 = 37%

Not good but let's get it right

Also, 300p was overpriced and lasted less than a day. Realistically G worth around 250 at that point. so we are perhaps more like 25% down on 'reality'.

Hydraides: The share price has falling nearly 50% in a matter of weeks....

When were we at 380? I must have missed that.

I should have added that the chart in my last post shows G at -25% over the period during which the OP has dropped just 10%. This implies that G should be around 240p today if OP was the only factor.

G follows G, so the ‘do we follow GKP or OP’ question isn’t really the one to ask.

Plainly we should track OP to some extent because it has a direct impact on revenue. But it’s not the only factor affecting the value of the business and day-day OP variations should be smoothed out. G should not ‘follow’ GKP although both might experience similar short term market reactions.

It’s sometimes much more useful to do a long term comparison so that you can pick out sp trends that are more likely to be due to company specifics or fundamentals.

Over time there will be a divergences https://invst.ly/97cx7 that are worth attention.
G can be shown to have drifted downwards about 20% in relation to OP between mid August and early October although it has since narrowed that gap to about 15%. This suggests that, with no other business news emerging, either G was overvalued in August or is undervalued now.

By comparison GKP continued to climb upwards in August, apparently normalising around early October.

G seems to be the less volatile of the two. Whether this is due to the nature of the business or the characteristics of its investors is hard to say.

Just a very rough rule of thumb, but I currently figure that G loses about 1.8p off the sp for every $1 drop in op. Seems to fit with, for eg, this morning's open (195.60) v yesterday's close (199.20) a 3.6p drop while oil down around $2. The market will overshoot, of course but then settle back - hence this morning's spike down to 186.

Just a very rough rule of thumb, but I currently figure that G loses about 1.8p off the sp for every $1 drop in op. Seems to fit with, for eg, this morning's open (195.60) v yesterday's close (199.20) a 3.6p drop while oil down around $2. The market will overshoot, of course but then settle back - hence this morning's spike down to 186.

For Tuesday, November 13th

What PoO giveth so PoO hath taken away, but it could have been worse.

https://invst.ly/973as

Today G finished around 1.8% above PoO - the same margin as it had yesterday
So, all other things being equal, it has held on to the ‘non-PoO’ element of the gain it achieved yesterday which market sentiment could easily have wiped out (and did do during the first couple of hours)

https://invst.ly/973dx

Where does that leave G? Well clearly on the edge of dropping further. It’s now just below the ‘red line’ of the wedge - not that that was ever accurate to the penny. There happen to be a couple of other support lines around there. But a drop to 192 on further PoO weakness would be the next downward step and not a good short-term indication.

Here endeth the lethon.

For Monday, November 12th

(NB: Percentages read off the chart, and heavily rounded!)

Please note that I’ve decided to re-zero the week’s comparison charts at Friday’s close so that the starting price reactions to weekend news and PoO movement are visible.
https://invst.ly/96l25

With only 20% of the week filled in, there may not be much to see yet but today G was quickest off the blocks making a swift 4% from Friday, whilst steady old RDS plodded after Brent’s + 2.5% before they both fell back during the day - RDS to +0.5 and Brent to +1.5%. GKP managed an initial +3% but then started to dither about, which seems to be a GKP characteristic, before eventually ending the day flat.

Any theories that G was oversold on Friday appear to be supported by the fact that G remained ahead of the others all morning, progressing to +5.5% before easing back to +3.5%. In terms of price, that’s around 210p, recovering half of Friday’s loss and half way to re-testing the purple ‘wedge line’ which is now down to 223, falling to 219 by Friday. If G finishes the week above it by a margin then that will be a reassuring box ticked. The daily chart looks like this, with a competent (but not exciting) effort at recovery after the last three bruising days: https://invst.ly/96k-t

Hey Hawkey - you'll have to hang on till the close for my comments. I'm not a trader so don't pay much attention intra-day unless I'm actively looking to buy or sell- in which case I've often set a limit order anyway. What's the excitement anyway? G is barely half way back to where it was last Tuesday, not much to write home about yet.

G's sp would take off if the gas became a reality - we've known this for as long as it has been 'a couple of years away' (like it still is). Nothing will shift the sp until G can exploit that resource. Somaliland is just a diversionary story as far as the market is concerned.

Second that Hasiba!
Good to see the 'thumbs ups' here for JL's post.

If you've ever wondered why Nat and Tony's baby isn't much loved by the market, and maybe not by its parents either, it's worth remembering how it all started, some of the people, promises and expectations.

Investors tend to have long memories - decades - and bad luck hangs in the air for a long time or until it is replaced by the sweet smell of success. Here's one line from the following link to illustrate:
"We want to be producing 110,000 barrels per day by 2012 and by 2015 the expectation is 150,000 barrels,"

Impressive stuff eh?

https://tinyurl.com/ybl29f9o

Broadland 210
Mark888man 219
Bunks 222
Boyo 225
Withoutt 230
ocelot 245

Broadland 210
Boyo 225
Mark888man 219
Bunks 222
Withoutt 230
ocelot 245

JFT: [G} 'Never rises when oil rises' etc etc

It does actually: https://invst.ly/95qni ,
sometimes disproportionately in either direction.