Member Info for Boyobach

For Tuesday 11th December.

The week so far : https://invst.ly/9hnku
Today G corrected it’s rather overdone closing fall of yesterday, which was unsurprisingly exaggerated as it approached the gravitational pull of the support line and buyers held back.

G daily clicks: https://invst.ly/9hnie
The nominal ‘175’ red line just about did its job yesterday although it got rather dented by the 172.8 drop towards the close. Let’s hope it’s not tested again too soon. Today’s price action repaired the damage but was otherwise unspectacular. 200 looks a very long way off now yet the sp needs to build a base there (the inverse ‘head and shoulders’ shape that marks many a stock low point) if it is to recover from here and not go lower. It hasn’t looked remotely like doing that since late September (to the left of the chart).

Historic comparison with DNO: https://invst.ly/9hni3
Here’s a new chart that specifically compares the two over a long period (but after the Taq Taq debacle that almost knocked G out of the game). For whatever reasons, presumably Miran and Bina Bawi, the market obviously felt that G was more exciting than DNO during May but subsequently changed its mind and the differential has been narrowing back ever since. By this comparison, it could be argued that G has been pulled back rather too much and, apart from a minor correction for that, it seems unlikely that G will move ahead of DNO again until it demonstrates why it deserves to move higher. Hopefully this will happen at January 15th’s update, unless there’s other positive news in the meantime.

JL: i doubt there is little the board can say to halt the meltdown not just here but at Gkp & to a lesser extent DNO & others......

We are probably going to have to wait until the Trading and Ops Update on the 15th Jan, it's unlikely there'll be any news prior to that. No meltdown at DNO at all as far as I can see, since OP fell from $86 it's recently been close to RDS' performance. GKP appears to have fared the worst as OP has fallen but has also been undergoing a correction in sp since it hit very high values in the summer. Overall from early June, GKP and DNO have done reasonably well and comparable with RDS, whilst G is a bit over 25% down on all three of them. This appears to be because the market felt it overvalued G in the period up to the H1 results, and has been 'correcting' for that ever since. Hopefully the next update will show that the correction has been overdone.

Tiger100: '....specific to Kurdistan we have continued lack of Iraq government being formed.....'

The plain fact is that Erbil-Baghdad politics have not been stable for decades and certainly not since Vallares was formed and was RTO'd by Genel.... the KRG's, historic baggage, whiff of corruption, nepotism etc. are part of the deal and are probably the most constant thing about the Kurdy oil scene. In the end, the KRG will either work with Baghdad or press ahead with their own plan. Either way, they need the oil revenue. I don't think the local politics has ever really affected the sp apart from when G did not get paid - which does not appear to be a risk at present.

For Monday 10th December.

Weekly so far : https://invst.ly/9h6or
Headline: Oil down, G down over twice as much (since Friday).

Since June: https://invst.ly/9h6ol
Headline: DNO 9% down but G 40% down since early June

Now that G is spending the majority of its time below 192 and near H2 lows, it’s time for a fresh look:
https://invst.ly/9h6os
This chart is an update of the previous ‘daily’ but the optimistic blue rising trends are now greyed out as they’re not the main story for the time being.The dominant green falling trends remain prominent and there’s a rising red support line at around 175 - below which, I assume, the next step down is to maybe 155 (although 165 has its fans), which looks increasingly likely day by day as the OP evens out at around $61. We also have the falling purple line now adjusted to remove any equivocation and solidified - the sp has never crossed it and we won't be able to assume it is levelling out or recovering until it has. The shaded track gives my most optimistic view of the path ahead assuming there’s no further deterioration in OP and other factors - NB: none of these have proved correct since the fall in OP.

It’s not all doom and gloom - just all gloom. Whereas, during the summer, G’s fundamentals seemed to justify a higher price in the long term than the market was willing to give in the short term, the fall in OP has placed holders of G in the uncomfortable position of contemplating whether the bottom could prove to be well below their worst expectations and rather prolonged. Between now and the New Year, anything above 200 is looking unrealistic, especially after today, whilst a drop below the ‘red line’ of 175 - which happened in the last half hour today - threatens to become more significant every time it is revisited. It may not be the best time to buy or to bail - but the number of investors considering the latter must have increased markedly since the price dropped firmly below 200.

Yes bunks - I agree with a lot of that. but G is not simple because even now it isn't just about OP, although that is guiding the sentiment . My point was based more on the likely technical direction rather than the G narrative. I was also being rather kind - I think it could well break lower than I indicated and I'm with Whitehat rather more than those who see 200+ as the direction of travel in the near term (ie by next Friday). I think many will be seriously mulling whether to sell if it knocks on the 175 door for the third time. The stage-managed elements at OPEC don't conceal the fact that oil production is going to remain high relative to demand, so the wind (OP) and tide (technical factors) are both against a recovery in G's sp, which leads me to conclude it'll probably succumb to the downward forces on the chart. I hope not.

Friday Club calls and results for this and the next couple of weeks are especially interesting because at some point before the year’s end G must break out of the trend that has dogged it since mid August. I’m talking about the broken purple line on recent charts that the price has only ever pierced twice - and then only very briefly.

I say ‘must’ because the alternative is grim indeed, with the sp continuing to fall more solidly into a lower trading range, say 160-199. Breaking upwards, however, should bring 200 minimums and a reversal of the steady four month decline.

Fundamentals, like those expressed here by H, Justin D and many others may suggest that the price is already lower than it realistically should be but those that trade will study the trends and see that G has been testing lower rather than higher for some time.

We all expect the end of year results to be very positive but, meanwhile ‘up’ (range= 200-240) or ‘down’ (range=160-199) is as predictable as the flip of a coin, with recent visits to 174 suggesting the coin could be biased to the downside.

One year chart: https://invst.ly/9gk81
Recent detail: https://invst.ly/9gk8w

Boyobach 195
withoutt 210
Hawkey 222
ocelot 230

For Friday 7th December.

I think Malcy is worth a read as far as OP and OPEC+ concerned: https://www.malcysblog.com/

I’m very wary of today’s recovery in G - it’s not as definite as I was expecting to see and I think this is due to the lack of clarity mentioned by Malcy. 187 is not a strong finish for G for this particular week in my book.

G was the most volatile sp but more or less held its own over the week, which may seem ok ( https://invst.ly/9gf6y ) until you remember that it is still gradually dropping away from the other Kurdy suppliers ( https://invst.ly/9gfpn ) which have generally kept remarkably level (within about 5%) with their June sp, whereas G is 30% down!

Finally, the daily chart masks the rather limp recovery today compared to a fortnight ago ( https://invst.ly/9gfqs ) . Monday’s opening price will be an important pointer, I think. Altogether a bad week for many, not least G, and I don’t believe in Santa either.

The rise is a bit more tentative than a fortnight ago.
https://invst.ly/9g7u5
They're waiting for a Russian on a plane I guess.

Yes indeed Bacchus, a re-run of a fortnight ago. Nice little earner.

Investing.com - At any other time, a 7-million-barrel weekly drawdown in U.S. crude inventories would have sent crude prices surging. But not when the Russians are maintaining an elegant silence on production cuts that has OPEC, and oil-dependent economies all over, at their mercy...... Full article:

https://uk.investing.com/news/commodities-news/oil-tumbles-5-on-russian-silence-over-opec-huge-us-draw-little-help-1400502

Reposted due to duff link...
For Thursday 6th December.

Pretty dismal here and across the market, eh?

G took the biggest beating of the three Kurdy amigo’s but RDS didn’t escape the market wrath https://invst.ly/9fzot

Given the way the first couple of hours went, 175 was certainly on the cards for G today but it kept us waiting to the end https://invst.ly/9fzn2 .

The drop was, of course, more than 4x what the OP alone would have caused. G should bounce once the OPEC+ news is in - provided it’s as they indicated, naturally. A quick few bucks to be had again probably - G’s a trader’s delight at the moment, all the sellers from Tuesday doing very nicely.

For Thursday 6th December.

Pretty dismal here and across the market, eh?

G took the biggest beating of the three Kurdy amigo’s but RDS didn’t escape the market wrath https://invst.ly/9fzot

Given the way the first couple of hours went, 175 was certainly on the cards for G today but it kept us waiting to the end https://invst.ly/9fzn2.

The drop was, of course, more than 4x what the OP alone would have caused. G should bounce once the OPEC+ news is in - provided it’s as they indicated, naturally. A quick few bucks to be had again probably - G’s a trader’s delight at the moment, all the sellers from Tuesday doing very nicely.

Hi JL

Yes, my query was a bit wordy - but it really boils down to this:
Why did G’s sp rise about twice as much as DNO’s this year only to fall back to similar levels?

Recent movements due to OP have distracted us from the underlying fall in G from mid August to mid October which does not seem to have been explained. Either there was a market expectation up to August that hasn’t materialised or a substantial number of shares were sold off.

I’ve assumed it was disappointment at lack of progress re gas, but is that correct and is it the only factor?

The self-sustaining consensus here is that G is undervalued, but does that view have a solid basis? I guess we'll have to wait for the full year report to find out.

Re-posted with correct link!

I’m trying to better understand the much greater fall in G compared to DNO since late June. This seems to be key to understanding the cause of much frustration expressed on this board about the value of G and why some think that G’s share movements sometimes seem perverse.

It’s very noticeable that G tracked DNO pretty closely through the latter part of 2017 and early part of this year but then, as G continued to climb at a pace, DNO levelled off between April and late July, only peaking in mid August just as G started to decline sharply, after which the three Kurdy sp’s (for GKP also went into decline in October) began to re-converge (see this comparison: https://invst.ly/9fncc ).

The question on my mind is this: Why did the market think G was more attractive than DNO up until Mid August? Were the reasons quashed by the H1 Statement? Whatever those reasons were, they seem to have deserted G since then. I’m obviously inclined to think it is poor progress regarding the gas - but does that genuinely explain it

Something similar seemed to have happened to GKP, although in that case GKP continued to gain in late August whilst G and DNO dropped - almost as if investors switched to GKP as the other two fell out of favour. Finally all three had effectively re-converged by early November, implying that the market does not see any distinctive benefit between them. Is that the case?

My last post contained the wrong comparison link - apologies.

I’m trying to better understand the much greater fall in G compared to DNO since late June. This seems to be key to understanding the cause of much frustration expressed on this board about the value of G and why some here think that G’s share movements often seem perverse.

It’s very noticeable that G tracked DNO pretty closely through the latter part of 2017 and early part of this year but then, as G continued to climb at a pace, DNO levelled off between April and late July, only to peak in mid August coincidental with G declining sharply, after which the three Kurdy sp’s (for GKP also went into decline in October) began to re-converge (see this comparison: https://invst.ly/9fj7l ).

The question on my mind is this: Why did the market think G was more attractive than DNO up until Mid August? Were the reasons quashed by the H1 Statement? Whatever those reasons were, they seem to have deserted G since then. I’m obviously inclined to think it is poor progress regarding the gas - but does that genuinely explain it?

Something similar seemed to have happened to GKP, although in that case GKP continued to gain in late August whilst G and DNO dropped - almost as if investors switched to GKP as the other two fell out of favour. Finally all three had fallen back and effectively re-converged by early November, implying that the market does not see any quantifiable investor benefit/advantage between them. Is that the case?

For Wednesday 5th December.

Last week we saw the oil companies moving ahead of Brent in terms of % gain but, despite OP firming up, this week ( https://invst.ly/9fjat ) we’ve seen some of that short term gain being rolled back. Looking at the comparison chart since OP hit its peak ( https://invst.ly/9fjal ) we can see that G is doing ok relative to Brent, although DNO has made more headway in the period and has become the Kurdy pack leader since G and GKP gave up their April to August gains.

G continues to be the most volatile of the bunch and has today pushed back above 198p ( https://invst.ly/9fjao ) onto the ‘blue’ trend it dropped off yesterday. It would be good to see it consistently close above this line going into the final weeks of 2019 as this will require it to conquer the broken purple line that has marked its top highs for months.

Big rises invariably stimulate profit taking, so Tuesday’s drop is not all that surprising given that G had put on 35p (20%) in less than a fortnight. By today, all the oilies - including RDS - have experienced a similar roller coaster ride, although G has experienced the highest high and lowest low of the week so far. https://invst.ly/9fcho

Some would no doubt argue that G, GKP and DNO are in reasonable balance after the summer, when G and then GKP saw much higher sp’s than their Norwegian peer https://invst.ly/9fc8q .

G performance today showed us how irrational sp movements can be for investors like you and me.....

For many buyers in the last week of November (ie when sp was 174-186) today was an obvious chance to take profits. No guarantees but, now the gap has been filled, there's a good chance the sp will recover unless the OP drops. These movements are fairly rational, although I confess that I cannot explain the long term divergence between G and the GKP/DNO/RDS group that I've just posted about. I can only imagine that there's a steady sell-off of shares by a large holder in progress. Good luck Hasiba.