Member Info for Boyobach

Hindsight is great isn’t it ? but, by definition it comes too late - unless it helps inform a future strategy….

I wish I’d been sharper about this one, here in the orange box:
https://invst.ly/9jq1k

See the first green candle with the long downward tail? The long tail implies that the sp went as low as it could but was driven back up over the support line and the day finished well up. The message here is: ‘great - that support looks good!’. And, indeed the price goes back up the next day. But the fourth candle (not the 2 Ronnies joke please!) revisits the line. Now that’s a clear warning! It then opens the next day below the support, which signals ‘sell’, unless you can afford to wait and see, and closes well down. The next day’s green candle opens low and admittedly makes it a bit tense by going positive yet it closes below the line - pretty much confirming that the trajectory is now downwards.

Being wise after the event is so easy. My excuse for missing this is misplaced optimism about what OPEC would do - but part of OPEC’s job was to apply a temporary sticking plaster and quickly/temporarily halt the decline in OP- the agreed cuts were always going to take time to work through the system.

Yes Bunks - not a good day for Brent and a bad signal here as it's dropped below a support line it's been following (circled) : https://invst.ly/9jqo7 (Brent is candlesticks)

With commodities I have no idea what that could signify other than 'not good'......
I think tomorrow could well be tough.

For Monday 17th December

The week so far (15’ clicks): https://invst.ly/9joc3

Despite being at the top of this chart, a pretty dismal day given how badly G ended last week, there’s just a tiny crumb of comfort in the last paragraph of this post. Ignore GKP’s volatility today: in the great scheme of things, GKP has performed much better than G and is closer to DNO overall when viewed since early summer, being only 14% down compared with G at 40% down. DNO is useful at this stage as a benchmark (just 12% down since early June or mid-September). G needs to be consistently at the top of the weekly chart over a number of weeks to be getting back in the same league. Here’s a reminder of why:

Since June 7th: https://invst.ly/9job9

To put all that in context, if we took G’s worst summer sp close as 230, then, if it had performed as well as DNO, it should be over 200 today. So it has arguably fallen around 17% more than it should have since its summer lows.

G (daily clicks): https://invst.ly/9jocj

Unsurprisingly, with the force of gravity that often seems to apply around supposed support lines, G dropped to connect with its latest red line. What we are looking for now is some sign of levelling off and, if not a bounce, a gradual upward correction to bring G more in line with the long term performance of DNO. One definite sign of this would be staying above red with no attempt to follow or connect with the lower blue falling trend line, currently at 161, which has marked its fall since mid-August. If it touches that again then G would obviously still be falling at a fast and steady rate.

Notice how G’s lows did not chase and hit that blue line last week? It’s the only positive indication I can offer today. Allowing the blue to fall further away and climbing back above 175 in the next week or so may not seem exciting but would at least be encouraging.

Hi Jack Salad Good to hear from you.

Regarding the gap at 158, I can’t see it - on March 23 the sp went from 153.8 to 160.4, so no gap there unless as an intra-day? There appears to be a small 2p one between days at about 160.8 - 162.6. I rate gaps rather less if they are in the middle of a rapid and continuing rise or fall, especially if they are intraday. But I could be wrong about that. G has seen a few gaps over the years - going down as well as up and the ones between days usually have been filled.

I liked your point about Elliott Waves: I cannot usually get the theory to work for me in practice - the problem always seems to be properly identifying ‘wave 1’. I’m actually quite sympathetic with JL in his scepticism of charts because they are often subject to interpretation and human bias - the conclusions can often be very much in the eye of the beholder.

I also think that the wave theory probably works best when the environment is more or less static because a significant news event can disturb the pattern - such an event happened with G during what should have been ‘Wave 1’ when the KRG called a referendum last year. That screwed the Elliott thing up for me - as per this picture, which shows where I think wave 1 might have gone had things proceeded on a purely market driven basis if the conflict with Baghdad hadn’t happened:
https://invst.ly/9j9j9

So I don’t know if we are really wave 2 or 4 ( you can see I’m a total numpty at this). It matters because if it’s wave 4, as you suggest,then although there’s more to go it may not be quite so great or long lived as we'd like (there's that 'eye of the beholder' thing!)

I guess the one positive is that, either way, we should see another ‘up’ wave.

Given what has happened to G in terms of the persistent fall below 200, I’m trying to avoid being a ‘stick with it’ and ‘keep the faith’ at any price kind of guy - we need to be hard nosed and realistic about G. - it’s been much worse than I expected and I’m not pretending otherwise.

Hi JL

At the time G was in the region of 250 - about three years ago - I did post on ii that I thought it could go sub £1, I regrettably did not use charts then. Had I been smart enough when the sp was 500p I would have got right out and saved myself a big wedge of cash. I had accumulated and traded since they were over £10. I actually started to seriously get out of G when it was just under 300p, fortuitously ahead of the Taq Taq implosion. Unfortunately, when they had a very strong balance sheet, they spent a lot of money on prospects that turned out to be dusters whilst the KRG was not paying them either - so the company just bled investors cash. I can't fault them if that informs their caution now. G and GKP have been a painful experience for investors and G's sp does rather indicate that they are not trusted. The question forever on my mind regarding G is to what extent I am overestimating the 'Reasons To Be Cheerful'. I am not yet in loss here this time around - and I am determined not to be bitten twice.

withoutt 165
Boyobach 177
Hawkey 185
JustinD 190

For Friday 14th December

The week so far: https://invst.ly/9iwxa

In view this dreadful couple of weeks for G, I’m going to chat about the comparison chart since ‘peak oil’ - this snapshot was taken about 3pm so does not reflect closing prices :
https://invst.ly/9ivhc
My interest here is the bit in the yellow box - where OP has been pretty flat but G has been all over the shop. It’s an object lesson in how OP influences G but doesn’t necessarily do so minute by minute.

It’s also an object lesson in how it’s easy to suppose that because OP has been weak, G should be indefinitely weak also. DNO is quite obviously having substantially less of a problem. G is supposedly a low-cost producer and in a net cash position so the sp should not be crossing red support lines (like the ‘175’) since the OP levelled out three weeks ago .

Snap’s message today was a poignant reminder that dreamers can sleepwalk into a bad situation. We must be careful not to give G too much leeway in terms of OP. In late August this was comfortably around 245 p with OP at $77. At $60 OP, G should be no lower than 245 - (17x 2.8p) = 245-47.6 = 197p. So, whilst the drop in OP could be blamed for around 47p of the fall since then, the underlying price of G has fallen by an additional 25p. The peak price of G to the low price of G in the yellow box is about 30p during a period when OP was virtually flat. Which rather illustrates my point - G should and can perform much better than it is and the sp should be much more comparable with DNO than it is. Is this due to a problem with G or is it due to the market discounting G excessively as the OP falls?

G’s Chart (cleaned up to emphasise the dominant trend): https://invst.ly/9iwxt

With the ‘175’ virtually gone, I’m asking myself where my final red line is. Don’t, by the way, overlook Bottmzup’s point about 165. Although the price has moved back up over 200 since he made it, we are now back in that region but apparently weaker. So some would argue that a visit to 165 before things get better is likely, if you have the nerve for it.

No more comments, responses etc from me till later Sunday I'm afraid….GLA

This has been a particularly bad week for investors in G. Just looking at the weekly comparison chart I can see that we started at 191p, with an OP of $62.1 and by this morning we had gone as low as 171 with an OP of $61 - so we had lost around 20p for just $1 drop in OP. That’s a hell of a lot more than my rule-of-thumb 2.8p per $1 !!
OK - I know that I would be the first to point out that timing can distort the picture - but not by that kind of margin. Sellers have obviously been coming forth and it’s quite understandable.

Let’s just hope that the fundamentals really are fundamentally as solid as we tell ourselves and that January 15th’s news does not contain any bad surprises. I have no reason to think it should but, as we know, investment in G has always relied too much on anticipation rather than results.

Regarding $70 oil - that would be a bonus, I think. A period of stability around $65 would be fine by me.

Very sorry to read your note Snap - it is very tough when a substantial investment does not work out. However I’m pleased that you have been released from the burden - because I know exactly what that can be like. Well done for making the judgement and acting on it. It is easy to get hooked on the ‘story’ - and there’s always been a ‘story’ with G. The problem is that it has not developed sufficiently into a tangible reality. Maybe it will but none of us here can be certain of it. Best of luck for the future.

That's interesting. As they have to cut exports, as part of their OPEC cuts quota, the US would be one of the the obvious targets where they presumably get paid pro-rata the local grades, which should be relatively cheap, and where the size of oil inventory directly affects global prices. It would be interesting to know what grades they export to the US - which presumably has more than enough of the heavy sour stuff. I guess Russia might do something similar.

....thinking of checking in weekly going forwards, this is driving me nuts...

Watching the sp against OP every day is not necessarily a good idea if you attach too much importance to it.

Checking how the sp should be doing, on the other hand, may help set boundaries for holding or selling in order to limit losses or maximise returns.

JL does not like 'squiggly lines' - fair enough, but they do bring some rationality and help guide us. Today i had to accept that I'd been over-optimistic about G's lower sp limits although the charts had been indicating that lower was increasingly likely. The 'story' associated with fundamentals here is supposedly good but there's no denying that the market is unimpressed. G is ultimately on borrowed time because the oil resource is being pumped and sold - so real reserves (as opposed to estimated) are falling all the time and being converted into cash. In my opinion, unless G exploits Bina Bawi and Miran pdq, we could all find that this is a £2 max share.

For Thursday 13th December.

A lot of chat last night + today about G getting disproportionately panned by the OP. It’s certainly an influence but don’t expect the sp to always respond to it directly minute by minute. Here’s a clean view of GvBrent over recent weeks which might clarify the point: https://invst.ly/9ihi9

The link with OP is rather like a long lead connecting a puppy to its owner, one moment quite tight during a big move the next quite slack. Think of the next chart as three pups, one older dog and one dog walker! We’ve previously seen G move ahead more than the others then fall to the back. If company fundamentals or sentiment change then the link can get disconnected for a while. The longer the period you average over, the clearer the underlying correlation with OP becomes. It’s no accident I’ve used pups and dogs for the analogy btw.

OK, enough dog shtt. Today’s comparison shows all the Kurdy’s down on the week, with DNO and Brent pretty much where there were at Monday’s close and GKP having recovered from being the worst performer on Monday. But G has failed to fight back and has stayed against the ropes. This is quite possibly due to technicals - G had been on the brink of dropping through the current support level, which appears to have finally happened today as today’s G chart and chat acknowledges.

The week so far (expanded) : https://invst.ly/9ihsx
(Don’t forget that Oslo time is an hour ahead so market hours do not correspond)

Since peak OP: https://invst.ly/9ihxu
G (daily clicks and sp targets for $60 and $65 Brent): https://invst.ly/9ihs6

G continues to cross or threaten to cross, more red lines than a wavering politician. The generously named ‘175’ had marked something of a support area until today, but has apparently failed to survive after Monday’s test. In my mind it’s the reason G has been quick to fall and sluggish to recover with OP this week, as the market has undoubtedly been anticipating its collapse. So, as today appears to have seen its demise I’ve marked it as ‘broken’ and drawn in my next red line (other folks will undoubtedly disagree with the position) with origins back to March. I’ll call it ‘166’ for now. The trading range has been adjusted accordingly. Would I be buying in the meantime? Er….. No. and I suspect that a few others will think the same.

I think it's just timing bunks - G is currently at the same sp it was on Monday at the same OP. Frankly a tighter correlation than I'd expect.
DNO is much the same.
Something driving GKP up at the moment though.
Let's see at the close

169 and below now look like a distinct possibility since the support line got broken. The sp is in no-man's land again.

Just looking in at around 10.40:
OP near its low for the week 59.9 and G slightly above its low for the week at 174. GKP and G tracking each other closely so far this morning. DNO and RDS both down too. G getting pretty much the sort of treatment I'd expect given the market and OP.

JFT / Bunks

Yes - G went off piste, opposite direction to the others, at about 15.30 -here's a snapshot: https://invst.ly/9i6jr
It had been playing nicely up till then.
But these things do happen - OP isn't everything. If a seller comes along the price will be whatever they are prepared to take...

Hi Comeonvog

These charts are - as best I can get them (and I rely on Invest.com for them) a reflection of the actual market price(s) at the time that they are published. Each chart should carry a time stamp - never rely on them being close of day prices (I sometimes post them a bit early - but try to remember to state that).

They do not include any data relating to the company's actual cash position. Now, here you make a good point! The market should be aware, for example, that a cash position is building at G and take that into account. However, my own belief is that the market is exactly like a herd - the leaders may act on knowledge, rumour, instinct or algorithms - the rest will follow. As JL and others often complain: the market does not necessarily take any notice of fundamentals. I do not know the current cash position of the company - others here have offered possible monthly accruals - but I cannot and would not give any kind of chart showing a correlation based on guesswork. I rely entirely on data supplied by Invest.com except where I insert trend ines etc or add lines that show achievable sp against an OP.

I try to buy my core holdings based on rational assessment but I do trade them to get the lowest price - to trade I try to analyse what the herd is doing - hence the very limited charts I use.

Finally - there is an important limitation:to the comparative charts I post (the ones that show two or more sets of prices against a % scale). I try to do these in good faith BUT please be aware that anyone who posts a comparative chart can make them look very different by selecting the time/date of the 'zero' point - which is why I try to include this info on all the charts I post. The ones I post are intended as a quick reference to try to pick out anomalies and give a general idea. NEVER base an investment decision on something I or any other anonymous person writes. Also - if you think something I've posted looks wrong/inaccurate/misleading then do ask me.

Hope that's ok and GL

For Wednesday 12th December.

The week so far : https://invst.ly/9i29j
A fairly level day for OP but G was again over reacting especially at the close which, frankly, seemed to have little to do with OP.

Since early June: https://invst.ly/9i2cu
Just included for completeness - nothing new here. Although you may just want to watch the gap between DNO and G over the next days and weeks to see if it’s widening or if I’m just imagining it.

G (daily clicks and sp targets for $60 and $65 Brent): https://invst.ly/9i2c3

One recurring theme on this board has been the sp’s reaction (or lack thereof) to the OP. I’m hoping that these charts have demonstrated that there is a reaction but the timing and extent of it are not always what we’d expect and that it also interplays with other forces - like the wider market, company performance and sentiment. However, there’s no denying that you can’t match the sp at any given time to a specific sp. But what if you could? What if you could say ‘at $60 Brent, G’s target minimum sp is 190p, or at $65 G’s minimum target sp is 205p’?

Well that’s what today’s G chart attempts to do. Whilst we are predominantly under the control of OP, I’ve added two dotted lines which show the approximate sp levels that have previously been achieved at those two particular oil prices in the hope that this informs us about whether G is performing or underperforming relative to OP. If G achieves a higher level at either respective OP then I’ll shift the line up.

It’s been an essential exercise for me because I was convinced the sp was at least 10p shy of where it should be with Brent at $61and this does seem to be the case.
G really should be, and needs to be, over the next green trend line and well above 184. Because it isn’t it remains vulnerable to negative market or sentiment moves which could take into the next lower trading range.

My mind is not boggling, JFT, the issues are plain and have names:
Miran and Bina Bawi

It was anticipation of progress with these that took the SP up to 300p and it was the lack of progress that brought the sp back down. Plus around another 50p off for the drop in OP. With Brent set to average $61 during 2019 (according to EIA) it's going to be a slow climb to a respectable sp (like 250) from here, assuming it bottoms out now - which it may not. Let's hope production data, revenue and cash accumulation surprise the market in a positive way in January.

I'd wait for the EIA, Hawkey - these API guys aren't always the definitive source. This is from OilPrice:

'Last week, the API reported a build of over 5 million barrels. A day later, the EIA had a completely contradictory report showing a 7.3-million-barrel draw.'

Maybe they needed to put a big figure in this week to balance the books after last week supposed build?