Member Info for Boyobach

About the OP Relationship to G's sp:
Regarding the fact that G has moved well ahead of OP recently, by a margin of about 25p, it’s worth remembering that most - if not all - of the difference was accumulated over the Xmas - New Year period when the OP remained virtually flat:
https://invst.ly/9r6kd
In theory, then, it remains a risky part of the sp - it could evaporate as quickly as it appeared. If it remains intact then it justifies an sp of about 204p at today’s OP. Without it, the price would naturally be around 179p.

This will be a first ,Hawkey, if the KRG accept it and it is approved, applied and implemented without subsequent squabbles!
I'll believe it when all of that happens. The people of Iraq deserve stability and fair governance after all these years. And, yes, it should be good for G and us too.
I had hoped it would happen under Haider al Abadi - he achieved a lot after the dire term of Maliki but he alienated the Kurds with his response to their ill-considered and strategically disastrous referendum.

For Thursday 10th Jan 2019

It’s always a poser - in the question sense - when an sp hovers at a line. Will it break through or drop back? G certainly slowed as anticipated just below 204, but hovered to the extent that I decided to sell just a few yesterday - as I explained at length to Comeonvog. Today I bought ‘em back - for a princely profit of just 3p per share (after expenses). Why? Well a closer look at a 15’ chart revealed how G was reacting to OP and to an old line that I’d forgotten to delete, in orange here:
https://invst.ly/9q-zm
It’s a parallel to the dominant downtrend that had marked G’s decline from August, which was only pierced a couple of times. The orange happens to mark those occasions. Is it relevant? Who knows, but G certainly spent part of the afternoon bouncing between it and 204 and chart people like to see a broken trend line revisited or ‘kissed’ briefly. OP was also helping, of course, and this chart includes Brent (rebased on the 3rd Jan) and shows that although G was in the process of pulling back it has also responded to the more tangible upward pressure of the OP.
Having decided to buy back, all I can say is that Brent better keep going and the T&O better be a stunner, ‘cos if either of those are neutral it’s pretty clear which direction G will likely go.
Here’s a wider view (with OP rebased at Peak):
https://invst.ly/9r06h
And here are the rest:
https://invst.ly/9r01d
It always surprises me that people get upset when GKP trades higher than G. What is that about? You could pick any two companies that trade for around £2 and get upset about one moving higher than the other. I guess it’s a kind of local derby thing - the way local football fans are very tribal when the nearest team is visiting. Anyway, a waste of energy IMO - I’m here to make a few bob and GKP offer a different proposition. They’ve so far been worse hit than G by the fall in OP (they were 40p above G when it started) but are well on the recovery path now. I’m not a holder but good luck to them and any holders here.

To be honest Comeonvog I don't try to overthink something that seems like a straightforward decision point.
G has now been further ahead of OP and for longer than at any time since Peak OP.
G and I are up 33% in four weeks.
The sp has slowed down at an apparent resistance point, even though OP has risen.
There looks to be a pull-back due.
There are some unknowns coming up: FY/ T&O update / OP movements.
So - I de-risked' today. by selling 10% and am happy to see it go either way from here, preferably up but down by up to 25p, so I've made a nice cash profit, would be ok too.

JL: It confirms my decision to stay away having missed the 150s,.....

Well the 160's or 170's may have been ok JL But I have to agree that at 199 with the sp slowing down the best opportunities may well have passed by for a while, possibly until a new phase begins. If G is ultimately headed for £3 or more then there will be opportunities to hop aboard but it may well be smart to see what the T&O update or even FY reports say whilst keeping an eye on how the OP/sp relationship develops.

Ha! Wednesday 9th January ....

For Wednesday 8th Jan 2019

Has anyone noticed that G has been outpacing Brent - which is now a long way behind despite touching $60 today - and, although it was about 4% up at one point today, G’s overall rate of increase has slowed over the past couple of days? This could, of course, be because G is a brilliant investment that the market has only recently noticed and today is just a pause before the T&O update and it seriously takes off. Or, maybe, it’s following a more predictable pattern. Today’s G daily v Brent can tell its own story, which is either fiendishly misleading or obvious and loosely based on harmonic motion. Past performance is not always indicative of future behaviour:
https://invst.ly/9qmlx

Here’s the wider picture of runners and riders :
https://invst.ly/9qmn9

GregP- yep, well put!

Today’s posts re this topic have certainly been relevant and worth pondering

Is Nat still a holder? I assumed that the Vallares ‘three amigos’ had ridden outta town a while back with their saddle bags full, though not as full as they might have been had the sp related bonus kicked-in. Ha! There was, actually a fourth ‘amigo’ (I’m obviously avoiding any reference to cowboys, as that could be misconstrued). It would be good if they were still involved as they would be keeping an eye on proceedings although, according to the Telegraph article I’ve previously posted, they were only in for £20m of their own cash in the first place and made £181m out of the IPO. So possibly never had that much skin in the game and little incentive to stick around after Taq Taq turned out to hold rather a lot of water.

When I posed 250 as potential offer territory it was based on a rule-of-thumb 30% premium. Sure it is low - but that’s what you get when, after seven years, you haven’t developed your most valuable asset and your sp sinks.

I agree that the major stakeholders will want more but I guess that could be achieved in a number of ways, not all of which might benefit or appeal to PI's - especially the ones who helped fund this outfit in the first place.

They've had nearly another six months to get their act together after August's anti-climax so let's hope things have moved forward.

For Tuesday 8th Jan 2019

JL: you don’t need to look at the charts for this one.

Before talking about G’s pull-back today, a cautionary note: Just a glance at the G v Brent relationship in the price comparison chart below is a reminder that Brent is about 12% lower than G since Oct 3rd, where each 1% of difference represents 2.48p of G’s sp. G could therefore easily slip by 30p if the market decided to pull it firmly back in line with Brent, like it did between Dec 3rd and 6th. GKP, meanwhile, has continued to make its delayed recovery since October and has only just moved above Brent for the second time since Peak OP. Maybe folks have been switching their cash between G and GKP? Perish the thought - but potentially smart! :
https://invst.ly/9q69t

A pull back was inevitable for G at some point but it was still disappointing to see G as one of just three fallers on my list this morning. Had I been a short-term holder who acquired in the last couple of weeks then yesterday offered a pretty obvious sell point as 200 has all the makings of being the top for a while. For LT dreamers, sub 195 is an area where it is vulnerable to further falls as there’s not much evidence of support between there and 176. So this afternoon’s close isn’t especially reassuring. Anything over 205 this week now looks optimistic if OP remains below $58. I was tempted to sell a tranche yesterday in anticipation of a deeper fall-back but OP remains the joker in the pack and I also think 225 is a reasonable target in the near future if Brent gets to $65 and the T&O update isn’t yet another damp squib.
https://invst.ly/9q6bs

You are possibly right about TO gregp but what price do you reckon? The resource would indeed be cheap and that would be the attraction for the buyer. So many investors would not see a decent return. 30% on today's sp might be top whack: 250p.
Not a stunning result - especially for any who were in at anywhere between £3 to £10. Would the major holders sell at that level?

JL - Som was never a key reason to invest - great if it happens but it was always basically a bit of padding. G has yet to deliver any investor value from the 'flagship' resources that they hooked investors with in 2011. If the can is still being kicked down the road at the FY then the market will not be impressed. 2018 was deeply disappointing even before the OP plunged. Being a G investor is like watching paint dry only to discover that, when it finally does, it looks exactly the same as the original.

Indeed Ocelot - Since the Taq Taq debacle, its primarily the gas, which they have not touched in seven years. If I sound a little unimpressed with progress it's because I am - and the market seems to be of a like mind. G have spent a lot of cash on prospects that led nowhere, whilst investors were hooked on the gas that never came close to development. That was all very well whilst Taq Taq was a serious long term source of cash but that was over two years ago. For long-term PI's, the gas is the main reason to stay invested but it always remains a distant prospect.

I watch the numbers and the squiggly lines JL.

The first are fundamental to value and the second to the market. Doing either one in isolation can be a big mistake. I know we usually talk up G's prospects here but I have actually been mentally downgrading them since August 15th. I'm now not so confident of reaching the £4 target level I had in mind for my core holding when I started re-acquiring at about 60p. I'm anticipating trading them rather more along the way if the volatility continues without any results. A lot depends on the FY. I doubt that the trading and ops update will say anything positive that hasn't already been anticipated - the risk, I think, is that with expectations already assumed by many, it could disappoint (à la half year).

And for those who don't think reserves are important just checkout what happened to G's sp when it transpired that Taq Taq was a busted flush! It's almost a duster compared to its original status. Remember that TH's pal Jules Metherell was quoted as saying they planned to pump 150k bpd by 2015! Yeah -right! Once the reserves are pumped out there is no more production, revenue, profit, dividends (what are those?) etc. I notice that G's website still says that it is the largest holder of reserves and resources in the KRI - so I assume that is still the case but find it hard to believe. G exists in a finite window of opportunity as far as I can see and seems to be wasting a lot of valuable time.

For Monday 7th Jan 2019

G appears to be rising at a slightly quicker pace than its rate of fall during December - so it maybe at risk of getting ahead of itself unless OP picks up a bit more or company news keeps the momentum going. I’d expect to see it slow down markedly around 206 unless OP regains $60+. It did briefly hit then fall back from 205 today. The Friday dreamers, including me, are obviously a rather optimistic bunch, although whether G can keep up it’s current pace remains to be seen. https://invst.ly/9pqtv

In comparison with the others, G is still chasing DNO - understandable given its dependence on DNO’s production, GKP is still trailing in terms of loss since OP started falling:
https://invst.ly/9pqu4

....the fact that we track GKP so closely day after day and have done now for months and months... Spooky.

Err, we don't. If we really had tracked GKP since 1st Jan, for example, then G's sp would be just 184p today. GKP has so far been rather less responsive to the rise in OP. The tracking needs to be compared in percentage terms rather than 1p for 1p.
https://invst.ly/9plev

Whitehat 206
Boyobach 208
Hasiba 212
JustinD 215
Jandialbi 219
Klassic 222
ocelot 230
Hawkey 260
Kevijoh 274

It won't continue to go up in a straight line. It's easier to make a profit on a rising share than on a falling one.

That's probably futures rather than crude - but who cares about 50c today? it's going the right way! Very happy to see you or Hasiba take this week's trophy.

That's probably futures rather than crude - but who cares about 50c today? it's going the right way! Very happy to see you or Hasiba take this week's trophy.