Member Info for Boyobach

Aren't there actually two physical pipelines (a 40" and a 46") running in parallel, neither of which are actually running at full capacity? One would sensibly undergo maintenance whilst the other continues etc etc. Infrastructure maintenance is a pre-planned fact of life - it hardly comes as a surprise.

For Thursday 24th Jan 2019

First my apologies for posting a chart that was a day old yesterday - foolishly sat at my PC and assumed I was doing a shot of the chart I’d been working on earlier on another machine. It seems the cloud is not always foolproof, especially if the fool forgets to refresh or does it whilst the internet is down.

Now, after the brief chat here with Comeonvog this morning, I thought I’d step through three recurring charts to make sure I’ve explained what they are and how they relate. There's no comment on today - so you can skip the text and view the pictures if that's all you are looking for. My charts don’t ordinarily contain any predictive stuff and are just a reflection of what has happened together with various trends etc that seem to be present.

Here’s G on its own, long term since September 1st. https://invst.ly/9vj2w .
There are some near-horizontal lines which mark possible and approximate resistance support levels that I’m interested in. Their price levels are not displayed on the vertical scale because they are not exactly horizontal - and by the time G gets to them (if it does) they can be identified more accurately. The main reason for this one currently is to keep an eye on the symmetry of G’s fall and recovery since the summer plus the likely steps in its progress.

Here’s the same chart shifted slightly to overlay Brent - with ‘peak Brent’ locked to G’s closing price on Oct 3rd : https://invst.ly/9vjnp It implies that, today, G is ahead of Brent by about 5% (12p) on Brent’s hypothetical journey back to 100% ($86).
Here is the comparison with ‘the others’ https://invst.ly/9vj0f which, for consistency, is also locked to Oct 3rd, so you’ll see the percentage values for G are the same (-23.71%) although Brent has moved in the time between the shots (remember this chart plots closing prices which are not ‘in sync’ for all the markets) .

On a day to day basis, the relationship with Brent can look rather different. So this hourly chart, which I’ve posted more recently, overlays Brent so that they visually tracked quite closely from Jan 4th: https://invst.ly/9vi-n . I’ve added some approximate price levels for Brent and G for convenience. You’ll see that G has been drifting downwards wrt Brent for the last three days - which some would say is simply correcting for the fact that it had moved too far ahead of Brent on the journey back up. The obvious response to that argument is to say ‘well look at the others - RDS, DNO and GKP ‘ and to read across the chart to see what G’s sp was during the autumn when Brent was at comparable prices.

Always bear in mind that these charts are just a snapshot of data which are open to any number of interpretations. When I comment on G moving up or down wrt Brent then it is usually in the context of their recent relationship unless I’m specifically talking about ‘since peak oil’ ($86).

Be careful Comeonvog.
G is about 8p down wrt Brent based only on their present relationship over the last couple of weeks from 4th Jan. But if you look at the chart based on peak oil (Oct 3rd) then you’ll see that G is up (by about 12p) based on that reference point.

So G’s sp is stronger now wrt Brent than it was on Oct 3rd - when G was 248p and Brent was $86. My instinct is to keep a close eye on that long term chart, as I’ll be happier if /when Brent catches up with G again: https://invst.ly/9vazh

I'm personally not buying atm because I am overweight G and to buy would simply increase my average cost per share.

It seems the G v Brent hourly chart I posted earlier this evening was in fact yesterdays. I must have inadvertently taken a grab of an un-refreshed screen: hmmm an unexpected consequence of .using two different machines during the day.
Here's today's correct chart:: https://invst.ly/9v76n
Just to re-cap, this chart gives approximate scales for comparison of Brent values (green line) with G values (candlesticks), So today's close for G was just under 192 whilst Brent was just under 60.3.

Hi Comeonvog -

The horizontal lines give an approximate scale for G (candlesticks) and Brent (green line). So, on the one you just posted G closed at just above 192 at which point Brent was just above 60.3. There's a snag, however - which presumably you spotted? This is yesterday's chart! I'm trying to figure out how that has happened - especially as it is dated today by invest.com. While I look into that - here is today's (I hope): https://invst.ly/9v76n

For Wednesday 23rd Jan 2019

Fun and Games with OP today, obviously, as Brent drifts right off the bus-lane discussed earlier. Clearly not what KSA, aka OPEC, had in mind last month. So much for the control anyone has over supply!
https://invst.ly/9v3q7

So G starts to look wobbly again, even though very recent history - in the shape of the next chart - has G at 200p for about $60.5 less than a week ago.
https://invst.ly/9v3pj

The rule looks simple - the steeper the drop in OP the proportionately greater impact it has on oil co sp’s generally. If it’s any consolation, the likes of RDS and GKP were today catching up with G’s pain from yesterday. Maybe the API stats tonight and more authoritative EIA stats tomorrow will throw some light on immediate prospects:
https://invst.ly/9v3np

Finally, if I kill ‘the rest’ we can more clearly see that G’s relationship with OP is pretty much back where it was in late November/early December. The difference, hopefully, is that OP is actually going back up - which remains to be seen.
https://invst.ly/9v3-i

preferably a straight one!

For Wednesday morning 23rd Jan 2019

In view of today’s blip down to 186, it seemed worth an extra note. The message is basically as per the well known guide to the universe: ‘Don’t Panic!’

Yesterday I bemoaned the way OP had dramatically dropped through two trend lines on my chart. Today, a closer look reveals that it has followed a natural ‘turn’ in direction from one to the other - rather as a bus can clip the curb as it rounds a corner: https://invst.ly/9uyki
So it’s quite possible that we are still on course for $65 along 'blue', albeit more slowly than along the red.

Maybe the market made the same mistake of perception? It’s been a lesson for me. Which leads to the anxiety caused by G’s price movements yesterday and this morning. If you are ‘long’ in G and get easily stressed then my advice is to take the long view, watching the ‘highs’ which is this:
https://invst.ly/9uylt
The ‘highs’ will act as a warning if the sp goes into long term retreat - see how the pattern is different prior to 21st December (the centre vertical) to today? The spikes (tails) upward indicate a tendency for the price to rise. Generally speaking, a line through the ‘lows’ is a better indication of whether the price is going up and a line through the ‘highs’ indicates whether it is falling over the longer term. Ideally, the two lines form a parallel pair. You can see that the ‘lows ‘ for G are sending a mixed message - which I take to mean it is consolidating around 197.

I was not familiar but am now. Stunning art does not necessarily result in a pretty picture.
I hope we don't end up like the poor crew of the Méduse !

Many of us here are in the same boat Tartine. It does seem more solid now but, even so, my advice is to keep your life-jacket on at all times and be prepared to jump the instant you sense a significant problem. ATB

Excellent post Tartine - like that touch of irony.

For Tuesday 22nd Jan 2019

Ha! with Brent knocked off its recent course, G was inevitably going to take a BIG hit, especially as the mood music after the TU last week was still a bit off-key - even in light of the RNS.
https://invst.ly/9uqlw
A significant fall for Brent: Through the red trend (due and expected) but also through the blue trend (not expected) and then a bit more. Reading directly off this next chart (I have prices off the screen that the linked snapshot doesn’t provide) I can see that G is about 9p further down than it was recently at the same OP ($60.65). https://invst.ly/9uqid

My own algo, which is set quite conservatively, puts G as 5p down on where it should be relative to OP. So, all other things being equal, I’d expect to see G back up to 197- 201 if OP steadies back near $61. That’s a big ‘IF’, of course. A perfect storm for G really - folks looking to sell at 210, an obvious high water mark since early December, a lot of disappointment building since the summer, and OP taking a dive.
Just another day for G investors.

Here’s how the rest of the field fared, this chart also confirms that G took a disproportionate hit, which suggests a correction will happen soon -as it usually does: https://invst.ly/9uqs7

Sorry to see you leave H - exciting and exiting times it seems!.

I hope you've transferred your warchest to somewhere that'll serve you well.

I suspect G will be a steady plodder from here rather than exciting - but who knows? Oil is something of a mug's game and I've got out of all but G and will keep a very close check on that through the next seasonal downturn.

ATB and au revoir...

For Tuesday morning 22nd Jan 2019

With the G component of my portfolio coming out of ‘intensive care’, I feel less concerned about the need for daily progress and the need to keep an eye on it.

Brent does appear to be switching to a slower lane, back to the previous blue trend from the more recent red here:
https://invst.ly/9uir5
This was to be expected at some point as it approaches $65. It has, of course, slowed G’s recovery today although, if 197/200p holds and provided OP ultimately makes $65, progress through 212 and up to 225 now looks achievable. Beyond that, G will almost certainly need OP nearer to $70, continued cash accumulation and business progress.
https://invst.ly/9uiu3

For Monday 21st Jan 2019

Helped by OP and today’s RNS, G finally punched through the 204 resistance heading towards the next level at 212 but irritatingly delayed at around 209/210 - the level it peaked at in December. Because of the necessary catch-up in relation to OP, which had not actually risen much further since Friday’s close, it’s not immediately obvious how much impact the RNS made. However the sp ratio to OP, discussed below, did rise significantly from 3.16 on Friday to 3.37 today - and it’s a fair bet that the RNS primarily caused that important multiplier to increase, contributing at least half of today’s gain .

G’s relationship with OP often has hour by hour consequences but is primarily a key long term factor. Since last May, the simple closing price ratio of G (p) / Brent ($) has had a value in the region of 3, ranging from 3.9 during G’s strongest period last August down to 2.8, during weakness up to Xmas. Today the ratio has been around 3.37, which is the best it has achieved since the summer. In practical terms it means that, at this value, G could be expected to reach 236p with an OP of $70 or up to 290p if OP repeats its peak of $86. So the ratio is now better than it was for the last half of August August and early October. Checking back it’s fairly obvious that the higher values of this ratio applied during periods when G was ‘above’ Brent in this long term chart - which is why it is of interest to me:
https://invst.ly/9ucbz

As many reports suggest, OP still appears to be on track to reach $65 or higher, each $ potentially adding around 3.37p to G’s sp as explained above. Brent progress:
https://invst.ly/9uchf

All the rest: https://invst.ly/9ucca

Broadland 190
mark88man 195
Rangor 202
Boyobach 204
Whitehat 206
Klassic 210
Foodforthought 213
withoutt 215
STOCKBUSTER 218
Jandialbi 219
Hasiba 220
JustinD 222
ocelot 225
L3trader 226

Yes Ocelot. It’s interesting to see this after my observation on Wednesday that OP had been going up at an underlying $3/week for the three weeks since Boxing Day. A slight blip Thursday, which was probably a signal of flattening out, but now back on track. However, I expect it to level out around $65 and can’t see it getting to $70 before driving season as I’m fairly sure that the US shale producers will pile in. Some of them are carrying so much debt that they must be desperate to make the most of the slightest margin.
The reasons for the sharp fall and less sharp recovery are pretty obvious though: Saudi overproduced massively and must now do most of the compensating. But the price drops a lot faster than it goes back up, even if it is rising at a record rate!

https://invst.ly/9ts-o

For Friday 18th Jan 2019

A pretty poor day for G. With G now priced in quite a narrow band and very dependent on OP, this hourly chart of G v Brent is currently the only one I find I need:
https://invst.ly/9tmaf

We can quickly see from this that Brent touched near $61.8 today whilst G only just made 200p although a week ago G was at 205 for that OP . Later on Brent went on to $62 whilst G dropped to 197. So it’s fair to conclude that the market was indeed not impressed by the Update and, irrespective of OP, G has slipped by at least 8p over the last week in relative terms. The chart also confirms that G still experiences resistance at 203.

Apologies BTW: yesterday’s version of this hourly chart was mis-labelled as 15’ (15 minute) - hopefully the error was obvious.

Here are the others since Peak Oil:
https://invst.ly/9tmab

To be fair Ocelot, that is good - unfortunately I still have Mr Wayward's numbers in my head (and G effectively still has my capital, which was invested with G based on his numbers). My gripes are with G and certainly not with you - investors here have a common interest and share similar concerns.

I'm with Tartine regarding a forward plan, although I think a year's visibility for revenue is hardly enough - the oil reserves are naturally falling, so G should be able to spell out a five year plan based on projected revenue and, assuming no acquisitions, the potential for cash accumulation and distribution.

I'm sure we would all feel somewhat better informed if that information was forthcoming.

Thanks Ocelot - I wonder what OP they based that on! If G goes ahead as stated in the Update and with their current rate of progress, then there's precious little reason for a significant uplift in the next six months other than an improved OP. $90 would do it.