Member Info for Boyobach

sorry dad....

JFT: You won't quit because you couldn't bear to leave us in peace.

To be fair I did point out to you a few days ago that in actual fact G has performed better than GKP or DNO since the date of the GKP consolidation in December 2016. It's easy to pick particular dates or time-frames that confirm our own views or prejudices, of course. As a holder of G since the shares were £10 I accept that the judgement and responsibility for investing are mine. I would not be invested with G today if I didn't think there were reasonably good prospects and that the management are capable of realising them. I've constantly tried to show folks here that Brent will NOT be tracked hour by hour or even day by day it's just one of a whole bunch of factors affecting the SP. Also, the collapse in price from £3 was only to be expected - the rate of increase up to June signalled an excessive market expectation (probably concerning the gas development) that the company simply could not hope to meet immediately. I think that there has been some failure of communication - and that sp volatility might have been much better controlled had that been conducted better. But recent evidence shows that they are making efforts in that respect. Check out the chart (again) and consider whether G is a bad investment when looked at objectively. Once the consequences of market over-expectation and OP collapse are taken into account then G appears to be performing quite typically for a high risk E&P. But - as Lee says - it's probably not the right investment for folks who get stressed about volatility or when progress isn't as swift as they'd like etc etc. I've certainly been dismayed by the lack of progress with BB and Miran - and I think the company has not managed shareholder expectations as well as it might - especially as we have been waiting for many more years than originally implied. But they seem finally to be on the verge of doing something...

Here's G versus the others since GKP rose from the ashes:
https://invst.ly/9-4kl

Sorry - JL - typo!

I'll happily buy off you tomorrow JFT....

I'll happily buy of you tomorrow JL. The market is down today and Oil just lost around $2 since this morning - that's an easy 6p off G ordinarily.

Should be fine H - PMO and G are pretty much identical in terms of price movement since late December. So if you wanted to switch horses it should not be a problem - you may even have made a few quid out of timing. Both are tracking/not tracking Brent to the same sort of level. When G is weak relative to Brent it's potentially a good time to buy.
https://invst.ly/9-3fn

For Thursday 7th February 2019

Got a bit distracted by PFC today - realised a second opportunity was being presented by SFO activity. It worked out ok for me last time so fingers crossed. Also LSE site down a lot today? This is posted well before the close, so things may yet change.

If OP remained nearly constant I guess we would not be too surprised to see G trading within a 20-30p range. So as OP is now back level with its price on Monday 21st, nearly three trading weeks since it hit 210, it’s disappointing but not necessarily alarming to see G (& GKP) down nearly 30p from then whilst DNO & RDS are up.
https://invst.ly/9-1l7
Quite why it’s down I can’t say but G is at about the weakest relative to OP that it’s been so far this year, which triggered a ‘buy’ signal on my spreadsheet yesterday. So I added when the price continued to be weak today. I hope to trade that small tranche back around 210p if OP continues its slow but quite well established trend towards $65. https://invst.ly/9-1m7

The slope of that trend unsurprisingly happens to match the current one for G in this daily chart: https://invst.ly/9-1n7 which shows it near the bottom of its potential range, with good headroom to move positively if market sentiment shifts.

I am now using LCO - London Futures - for Brent in the charts as, although it is not a spot price as XBR (NY) was, it seems to be the most often quoted reference in the media and is the one used on Malcy’s blog for example. In practice the two are always very close, usually within 30c and often less depending on the closeness of the contract date, so the charts won’t look materially different and are comparable. The market close timing (19.30) is also better for the comparison chart

For Wednesday 6th February 2019

Hardly an inspiring day: https://invst.ly/9zpw4
Just over a fortnight ago, at about the same OP ( $62 +) you can see that G was trading at 197-207p. And whilst GKP has experienced a similar fall, both DNO and RDS have gained over the same period. For those who hate untidiness, at least the tiny gap above 192p from yesterday got magically filled sometime after I posted but before today’s trading. https://invst.ly/9zq29
Some sections of the business press were earlier getting worked up about OP falling for the third consecutive day due to ‘demand concerns’- - really? Looks pretty steady to me at the mo: https://invst.ly/9zpzl

I like the good vibes on this board today from all folks who've posted - positive stuff with healthily cautious optimism. Fair play to Hasiba for reigning his enthusiasm in! The set backs of the last six months have, in my opinion, been mainly to do with OP- beyond the company's control - and market expectation. The latter might have been tempered by more communication, although I'm hardly qualified to comment on that difficult art. But if investor expectations are realistic and managed properly then volatility and enquiries to IR should be minimised. I'd much prefer management to be running the business than watching the sp too closely. I'd also like to see the steady and sustainable sp progress that COV alludes to. GLA

For Tuesday 5thFebruary 2019

Not a bad day,

https://invst.ly/9zbjf

A tiny annoying gap of less than 1p which is a technicality - not sure if that will necessarily need to be filled. I’m sure we’d all rather just see the sp move upwards without a reversal, no matter how brief.

https://invst.ly/9zbi7

My little spreadsheet’s now indicates that the strengthening position for G does give us a chance of anything up to 209p at the current OP ($62.4), although to be more sure of 200p+ we still ideally need OP to be $65+. OP seems to be settling quite tight around $62 for the moment.

https://invst.ly/9zbqd

Good to see G making up for lost time today. With Brent relatively flat this week G is making good headway and nearly back to mid-January levels wrt OP.
https://invst.ly/9z6uk

I gave up following Iraqi politics after the disappointing period of Abadi - I had hoped that he would resolve the country's sectarian issues and tensions with Erbil that he inherited from Maliki. To be fair, he had a lot to contend with but I don't think he handled the post-KRI referendum situation in a statesman like way. He clearly relied heavily on Iranian support and militias and this alienated people he might have forged partnerships with to the benefit of all Iraqis. Please do correct me - but if this budget runs for the year then won't it be the first to do so for some considerable time? I have become so used to Iraqi budgets failing, for one reason or another, to deliver as required for the people of the KRI that I will believe it when it happens. This time there does seem to be a fair chance, with some Baghdad and Erbil personnel changes possibly making a difference.

For Monday 4thFebruary 2019

So another week with G hopefully keeping up with OP or, ideally, moving ahead of it. The sp made a credible effort today, making up for its fall at the tail end of last week, even though OP ultimately disappointed:
https://invst.ly/9y-3e

At $62.5 Brent, G should be easily capable of 193 and in January achieved 205+ at this OP, as can be seen here: https://invst.ly/9y-39
….so it’s still plenty short of where it could be.
So what long term track is G on exactly? Well it’s too early to see any defined pitchfork/pivot pattern since OP turned the corner in late December but here’s a first guess:
https://invst.ly/9y-sh
You can see I’ve marked a ‘$65 Brent’ dotted line on here at G=200p, that is the minimum level I’d expect G to reach at that OP, with 217 realistically possible. That rising green line marks Brent’s trend since it hit minimum and it will be adjusted according to how OP progresses. I’d expect it to mark the limit of G’s lows, so ultimately I hope that the pitchfork track will become steeper to match it. For now, though, G’s progress looks unlikely to be spectacular, with 212 the highest it’s likely to see unless OP surges above $65.

Just to note that last time Brent was at $63, G closed at 194 (November 22nd). And that was on the way down - so G clearly under valued at the moment.

I’m not sure what your baseline for ‘dog’ is JLT. Viewed from December 2016, G is no worse than GKP, DNO or RDS. This was effectively a ‘re-set point’ for GKP, immediately post their 100-1 consolidation, when they were worth about 120p (from 1.2p) , whilst G were around 70p. G is up about 150% since then, GKP is up about 64%, DNO 97% and RDS is up around 13% (pretty much in line with Brent). G is not a dog on that scale.

https://invst.ly/9yqzh

Since ‘peak OP’ on 3/10/2018, G has done no worse than GKP. All three KRI oil cos - DNO, G and GKP peaked on 21st Jan and are down since then: DNO by relatively little but GKP and G quite similar.
https://invst.ly/9yr50

Rangor 195
Bunks 197
Boyobach 199
tiger100 201
Hasiba 205
Doubleheadedcoin 207
Broadland 208
Stockbuster 210
Justin D 212
withoutt 215
ocelot 220
mark888man 225

ComeOn: 'Boyobach it would seem your pick of a team in the six nations is similar to you pick of an O&G stock . ( only joking )'

Ha! We're kinda born with the choice CoV, it's a tribal thing.
I love the France-Wales matches - good atmos always in Cardiff. Kinda felt for them - their home crowd will be hard on them. At that level mistakes are costly and a good opposition will exploit them ruthlessly. Wales have done this 'recovery from a really bad position' before - very stressful for supporters to watch but the mark of a disciplined and mature outfit. God knows how they'll fare when Gatland goes though.
England were pretty damn impressive and are clearly contenders for a slam. The thing about Rugby is that it's ultimately about the quality of the game. Winning against a poor team is never much cause for celebration

OK JFT - are DNO and GKP dogs too? All down over the week whilst OP up.

I'm inclined to agree COV, I'm pondering a buy - even though it breaks my rules about exposure v risk. But all the numbers are indicating 'up'. And, let's face it, G is actually weaker today in terms of OP than it was on 20/11/19. (follow the orange line on this chart for reference: https://invst.ly/9ydfj ). That looks like a no-brainer but who knows what OP will do before the market opens on Monday?

Anyway - must watch Wales v France. Priorities! One of my favourite 6 Nations - French always great opponents (hoping not too great - but on top form so far).

For Friday 1st February 2019

Well no redemption for G today and, looking at the week, GKP ending up similarly down overall despite OP climbing steadily, if slowly. DNO also down a touch over the five days. So G shares similar company.
https://invst.ly/9yb09
But look at RDSb - the star of the week! Mind you, RDS had had a bad previous week - so it was catch-up time there and perfect for any G supporters who dabbled away from home.

Here’s the hourly chart, not that it provides much joy or additional insight:
https://invst.ly/9yb0x

My ‘toy’ spreadsheet, which uses various moving averages in an attempt to give me a trading range and likely value for G for a given OP, indicates that, at today’s OP of $62, G was expected to be around 188 within a potential range of 181-208. So it rather confirm what we already know, that G at 184 is near the low end of what might reasonably be expected under the current circumstances. And if that ‘top potential’ figure of 208 seems optimistic, it’s worth remembering that on the 7th January G touched 205 when OP was just $57. Performance like that today would’ve put G at 214p and possibly prompted me to sell a few.

otherwise why have 2 different extension dates.......

Maybe because Bina Bawi will commence as an oil producing project.... gas later. Miran later than either....?