Member Info for Boyobach

Hi COV - Glad to see you got some in - below 210, I think? And another order pending? Ha!

Sure- this could be 230 again real soon. I'm certainly hoping so.

I just like to spot what the market is up to. It's a game - fundamentals ultimately win the day but the market is just a beast heading vaguely in a certain direction, easily spooked, often blind-sided and sometimes predictable. Being Welsh I won't mention sheep....

For Monday 11th March

G nudges up - if you squint and only look at closing prices - but the body language (literally, as in body of the candle) isn’t quite so convincing. However, 209 may yet hold. I’m not betting the farm on it - and fortunately don’t have to, There’s plenty of time for G to get going - and there maybe a chance here for Hawkey to hop back aboard.

https://invst.ly/a90p1

Sometimes things must get worse before they get better.
I think bunks said today that if oil goes up then so will G, it’s simple. We all know how simple and simply frustrating that mechanism can be. We also know that, according to that logic, if oil stays flat as it has for the last couple or three weeks then G could be anywhere between 188 and 230 if that were the only factor. Fortunately it isn't. Here’s the same chart + Brent (rebased 3/10/18) to illustrate: https://invst.ly/a910x

The ‘oil up’ logic did work better for the others today but G seems to be still under a bit of pull-back pressure at the mo:

https://invst.ly/a90oa

So what does the game of sp pin-ball have in store for G over the next week or two?

Conventional trend spotters like me will probably tend to think that in the near term the ball is set to bounce between the rising blue lines, currently at around 232, 216 and 203, here: https://invst.ly/a8nzf

If G rebounds a bit early at around 211 and quickly regains 216 it would be a strong indication of a more forceful attack on 232. However, I happen to think that whilst the 210/211 level offered upward resistance it may not provide much support going down, so I still think 203 beckons, with 195 (gasp!) not entirely ruled out. Maybe something like the grey ‘v’ on the chart with G then nicely placed to continue upwards through the results day on the 20th, hitting my FC entry at 209 on the way. Yeah, right - probably not then!

Sbstr 200
Boyobach 209
JL 218
tiger100 220
Bunks 223
M888 225
JustinD 227
Rangnor 230
Ocelot 235
Without 236

Get your speech ready boyo! OK JL, I'll keep it brief:

There’s frankly no joy to be had from gaining the FC trophy when it’s for picking the lowest price of the bunch. It’s TFW you are the guy who moans to his mates that a gig, match or party is going to be rubbish and it turns out to be eff’in right.

And, because there was no challenger to the south, I can hardly claim that I demonstrated exemplary accuracy. Yep, I’m a typical miserable g it - not even happy about winning.

But not to worry guys: G is eventually headed upwards and I’m confident and happy (yes, happy!) that, as the glum member of the group, I won’t be winning the trophy too often in future!

For Friday 8th March

JL suggested, quite rightly, that I should employ brevity a bit more where possible, so:

On the basis that the chart of a rising sp can look similar to a snake moving up a road, G is making steady overall progress this year, even if this week has been a bit disappointing. https://invst.ly/a8bbn

The trick is (JL) to avoid buying when he’s in the left hand (upper) lane and avoid selling when he’s in the right (lower) UNLESS he starts going off the road altogether, of course ;-)

Meanwhile, none of the runners were enjoying a day in the sun today. All I can say is: ‘TFI Friday! Let’s hope for a better week soon - Results on the horizon!’ :
https://invst.ly/a8bbs

Utterly correct Ocelot.

There's usually both here - I try to keep my comments to one thread so should be easily filtered out.

Yes Tiger - I'd watch the Bollingers, they serve best when used with another indicator I understand. I had a look at them today and not convinced about a rise tomorrow just because the maths creates some headroom before another break can happen - the market has to drive the price up for that to occur.
But, cautious as ever, I'm happy either way. Bollinger upward breaks often seem to drop back to the mid SMA line eventually don't they? which is possibly where I'd buy back if I was using that technique - it's currently at 205, so not far off my lowest target, although obviously rising at present as it shakes-off some low values from earlier in February.
Today's close = yesterday's open so there's not been much of a reversal for G yet. The next couple of days will spell it out I feel. ATB.

Yep - the forthcoming results will probably distort the pattern Bunks. hopefully for the better! ATB

Fair point JL. I'll take a leaf from your book.

For Thursday 7th March

The EIA stats this week indicated a build in US inventories which is not uncharacteristic for the season and so Brent continued to march back up towards $67 until something knocked it back this afternoon: https://invst.ly/a7zhf

However, with US production continuing to ramp up to fill OPEC cuts, it’s worth remembering that last year set a recent (2015 onwards) record for average OP and that Brent has only averaged $55 over the last four years. So I’m not counting on OP alone to boost G long term. Hydrogens’s R2BC list and JL’s fundamentals is what will do that, in my opinion.

On that point, G was stronger than the other runners in early trading:
https://invst.ly/a7zhv GKP, DNO,RDS were all down mid morning whilst G continued to test upwards, closing level with yesterday’s opening price.

G’s pull-back from 229 consequently seemed to pause today. Could this mean that it has run its course already? It’s too early to tell but keep an eye on the 218 line, along with the red and the dark maroon trends on this chart: https://invst.ly/a7zl4

There are mixed messages here, though: There’s a divergence between G’s momentum (red line on the lower graph) and the red upward trend which many would see as indicative of a continued fall. Bunks observed that a 15p drop doesn’t look likely from here and he could well be right. I’m sitting on the fence at the moment but still feel 211 is possible, even if mention of 203 is starting to feel like unforgivable de-ramping.

G certainly holding its own today Bunks - hope you are right - will have a good look later.

PS For Wednesday 6th March

I forgot to mention, in connection with where G might land, that G has recent previous history in relation to OP at the current level. Looking at this chart:
https://invst.ly/a7mqe

The green horizontal line shows Brent’s $65.2 level, so you can see where G was when Brent’s green squiggle has cut across $65.2 in the past - the shaded box - in which G is roughly at 203p (as denoted by the red horizontal).

So, if you believe that G has recently been upgraded by the market (ie since 26th Feb), around 203 should be the worst case scenario and G might well land somewhat higher.

For Wednesday 6th March

Well the sooner G gets this ‘pull-back’ job done the sooner Tiger and I (and a few others I expect) can top back up and we can all move on with our lives. In today’s trading the price attempted to move up off the low opening but was pushed down by market forces. Apart from an early afternoon blip yesterday, G has been on a pretty consistent downward path since Monday afternoon:
https://invst.ly/a7lvs

So the end of day candlestick is similar to a gravestone doji, generally signifying that the price is not likely to go up immediately from here (although these things are not written in stone)
https://invst.ly/a7m0d

Quite where it will land is anybody’s guess at the moment. It probably hasn’t finished falling at 217 and other options include any of the blue levels on the first chart.

All the others having a reasonable day, by comparison: https://invst.ly/a7lvy

Excellent tiger.

I don't use Bollinger bands - rely on the visuals. It may not be very smart but works for me. Whatever works.

JL - I hope this works out for you and am sure G will do well in the longer term. So weird that you get back in whilst the likes of Tiger and I do some selling. I know you like to buy when an sp is on the rise but you can then be at risk of buying near the top of a wave. Sure, the next one should take you forward but it requires nerve to hang on. ATB.

Tiger: 'Sold my 10000 holding in my ISA at 225.2, now waiting for my new entry point'

Hopefully a good one for you today, Tiger. It's no coincidence that we are currently at the low end of the FC entry range is it?

For Tuesday 5th March

After a fairly promising start, testing lower levels but staying within tantalising range of capturing and holding onto support at 227/8, G finally succumbed and dropped back to 221.
https://invst.ly/a77q2

The nominal 227 is something of a benchmark support line since G conquered it early last May but it collapsed when Brent dropped below $80 last October although it was nearly re-taken a couple of weeks later with OP as low as $72, as can be seen from this longer view: https://invst.ly/a77q5

In my view it will be significant if/when G regains and holds on to it, especially if it does so with oil below $70. I personally feel that would mark a fundamental change in the market’s evaluation of G.

However, the anticipated fall back now looks likely to continue in the meantime so could provide buying opportunities along the way for those minded to do so. On the above wider view, we can see that although G does meet resistances on the way up, they don’t all necessarily offer a lot of support on the way down. G's track record of pull backs seems to be anything from 10-30p, with the average possibly around 25p. So 220, 211 and 203 do strike me as nominal support levels, should it continue to fall back having already landed near the first of those. I don’t need any at 220 but would probably be tempted to add to my trading stock of shares in progressive stages at around 211, 203(orange) and 192 (red), seeing the latter as, hopefully, an absolute and unlikely minimum given the recent strength.

Here are the rest of the runners, with G continuing to stay ahead of GKP in terms of recovery to ‘peak oil’ sp value and also just ahead of RDS: https://invst.ly/a77pz

For Monday 4th March

I’m sure we’ve all strolled along the beach as the tide rises and watched some waves push further up the sand whilst others stall at a lower mark before the next advance. It’s usually like that with an sp, of course - but there can be exceptions, where waves proceed at a dangerous and sometimes legendary pace over a very shallow rising shelf of land.

Last May, G’s tide marched briskly from 109 to the high water mark at 292 with hardly a pause at today’s 229. It was virtually a straight run from 12th Feb to 18th May, with the pace only flattening out briefly at around 185 and 210.
https://invst.ly/a6w3a

Copying that slope and placing it against G’s recent curve and it’s tempting to think that history could repeat itself: https://invst.ly/a6w5a . Regaining 229 would certainly give G a good platform to keep going towards to 248 and on to 258 - so perhaps it’s not a time to sell, unless banking profits to date is a priority. Even at last year's rate, 260p would take another couple of weeks - so I think Ocelot may not be in the FC frame this week.

Contra indications include the easing of OP and the ratio of G’sp to OP, which will inevitably max-out at some point and is greater than it has been since last year although not quite at the level it reached when G hit 292 last May. So a fall back remains on the cards but looks less likely with every day that G stays up around 228 despite OP weakness.

GKP is also rising quite smartly - faster than G today, in fact. I have no idea why, clearly the company narrative is different. So that implies there could be factors other than company-specific ones at play.
https://invst.ly/a6wli

Boyobach 215
JL 224
SBustr 227
Rangnor 234
Without 235
Klassic 236
Bunks 237
Posty 241
Hasiba 243
Double 246
Kev 248
mark888man 254
Ocelot 260