Member Info for Boyobach

Hope you've done ok at PMO Hawkey. You could have made about 28% looking at the recent high there - about the same as G's mid-February to early March run up to 230. Do you reckon PMO has a serious chance of regaining 120+ this year? That's like G getting to 276 from today's 208. Kinda top-end of my expectations - but I am one of the negative/cautious ones here. GL

Hi Hawkey

You asked about Tawke? Possibly you heard a reference to the Receivable Settlement Agreement (RSA) the terms of which include this:

• In addition to proceeds for current sales, Genel will receive 4.5% of Tawke gross field revenues for the five year period from 1 August 2017 to 31 July 2022 (‘the Genel Override’)

Hi Hawkey

The report makes no mention of an impairment regarding the quantity or quality of gas contained in the Miran licence and I believe the quoted volume on the website is unchanged. My understanding of the report is that the impairment is purely because there is no immediate prospect of exploiting the resource. Here are two relevant passages:

From CEO statement:

With the focus on Bina Bawi, we have reviewed the value of the Miran PSC carried in the Company accounts. The decision has been made to write down the Miran asset by $424 million, pending any movement on field development discussions. We continue to believe the licence holds significant potential, and development can follow a similar plan to Bina Bawi, but pending clarity on a development timeline, this is a prudent action based on accounting principles.

And a further note, 1.2 Significant accounting judgements and estimates, later in the report, contains more detail:

Management assesses the deprioritisation of the Miran PSC, with discussions on Bina Bawi active and detailed, as an impairment indicator and consequently have tested its carrying value for impairment. Principal changes to past estimates relating to the fair value less costs of disposal valuation of Miran relate to timing, cost estimates and risking. Because of the uncertainties existing around these items, as well as approach and commercial terms for the development of the asset, the assessment of valuation carries inherent uncertainty and for this reason, in addition to the estimates made, the Board has included contingencies for costs and timing and additionally an overall reduction in valuation to reflect risking of the project. The risking has been applied at 50% of the calculated value, which was assessed using a discount rate of 15%. This has resulted in an estimate of the recoverable value of Miran as $113 million, which results in an impairment charge of $424 million.

For Tuesday 26th March - helps to get the date right......

Bearing in mind that Brent has been over $66 for over six weeks, probably averaging $67 overall, and that, up to the results, G was reasonably well established above 209, we are tentatively getting back to the pre-results ‘low’ position.

Irrespective of what we might think, the results were plainly a mixed bag as far as the market was concerned. The $424m write down could hardly have passed without a mar-cap adjustment, that would have been bizarre, so we are now discovering to what extent the positives are sufficient to balance that out from the market’s pov. Since Friday’s ‘shake of the tree’ progress has been steadier than maybe the daily chart implies. In a 15 min per tick view https://invst.ly/adszg there’s a clearer line of progress towards regaining 209, hopefully paving the way for a period in the 209-225 band. G often seems to slot into price bands of around 15-20p and that range is not unrealistic according to some of the calculations offered by others on this board.

For Tuesday 25th March

Bearing in mind that Brent has been over $66 for over six weeks, probably averaging $67 overall, and that, up to the results, G was reasonably well established above 209, we are tentatively getting back to the pre-results ‘low’ position.

Irrespective of what we might think, the results were plainly a mixed bag as far as the market was concerned. The $424m write down could hardly have passed without a mar-cap adjustment, that would have been bizarre, so we are now discovering to what extent the positives are sufficient to balance that out from the market’s pov. Since Friday’s ‘shake of the tree’ progress has been steadier than maybe the daily chart implies. In a 15 min per tick view https://invst.ly/adszg there’s a clearer line of progress towards regaining 209, hopefully paving the way for a period in the 209-225 band. G often seems to slot into price bands of around 15-20p and that range is not unrealistic according to some of the calculations offered by others on this board.

Dodgepot: 'outcome' as in 'process mandated by referendum halted by Parliament'.

A Tory government was given the job to leave. The Tories were re-elected (just). So the people have spoken twice and nominated a weakened Tory Government for the job. Today's position is a consequence of that democratic process and the disproportionate influence of the DUP - which is apparently now the only block to the Government.
If Parliament continues to block the people's will then the only proper solutions are either to hold another G Election (which could prolong the stalemate) or to hold a Referendum to proceed immediately as originally mandated or halt the process entirely (Remain). The latter option would be decisive and, unless the public have changed their minds, would continue the process as originally voted for.

If dissatisfaction is any measure, T M's negotiated withdrawal is very close to the political middle ground - hence unsupported by any majority group. It may be ghastly for many but then it was never going to please all factions. It is only a transition arrangement - the meat is still to be chewed over.

Highlander -

The vote in 2016 did not specify what the withdrawal agreement would be like - Government was mandated to negotiate it and has done so. The fact that maybe you & I don't like it is technically irrelevant - it was a 'blank cheque' in that regard. If they had got it through Parliament already then job done. A second referendum would potentially bypass the Parliamentary stalemate and ratify the final deal. Once implemented, which would be very quick, there could be no going back within a generation.

Dodgepot: Boyo, what does not appear to be considered is if the outcome of a 2nd Referendum is the same as
the 1st, ie Leave, then what has been gained ?

The outcome could not possibly be the same if the correct question is asked (and, contrary to some suppositions here, I don't make an argument either way for remain/stay). Based on the facts:
Following the Referendum, the Government negotiated withdrawal terms exactly as the people instructed them to do but Parliament has prevented them from proceeding. The people gave the task to Government not Parliament.
Because of the impasse with Parliament, which is currently blocking the people's mandate, it would be legitimate for the Government to directly ask the electorate:

Do you want to proceed with withdrawal from the EU now that you know the terms or not ?
A yes would result in completion of the process that was voted for first time, ie on the terms duly negotiated by TM's Government, a 'No' would scrap Brexit.

It sounds neat enough but, of course, it's likely that Parliament would try to prevent the people being given such a choice because it would either provide a Brexit that isn't hard enough for some factions or no Brexit at all.

For Monday 25th March

Volume well down today but, with 198 looking pretty secure as support, it just remains to be seen what the near-term high will be and whether G will subsequently move horizontally within that range for a while. It wouldn’t be very entertaining but a nice earner for me if G simply cycled between 200 and 230 for a month or two.
https://invst.ly/adf4n

300p is now looking rather optimistic to me for this year, given the winding back on gas and no real news on Bina Bawi, but revenues and dividend prospects are undeniable plusses. My own target currently is 250-270 by end June with anything more a bonus at this stage. Some debate with Ocelot and Rangor on Friday produced rational calculations in the mid 300s however - so who knows?

For those who like to keep an eye on GvGKP Mar Cap: https://invst.ly/adf4y

And the rest of the field, with G performing as well as the others over the last two trading days because of a it went against the common trend today: https://invst.ly/adf5j

Good to have a Leaver and a Remainer unhappy with me bunks. Do I get a star for that?

NI was mentioned..... not in the official Government document presenting the risks to the electorate. That was my point.

Indeed bunks - enough - but important factual points are not a matter of opinion. I didn't express an overall view either way on leave/remain but believe that we have all been let down by the process.

I think there's a good chance G will pick up from here - just need OP to firm a bit.

Cheers Hasiba - thanks for confirming my point re the radical transformation of the EEC (membership of which was ratified by a referendum) to the more integrated structure of the EU (upon which the people of the UK were not consulted).
Let's get on with a General Election eh?

Britain has been humiliated by the EEC leaders sticking together....

They (& we) are in the EU rather than EEC, which was a profoundly different thing and which is why many people would agree with you about the need to leave, Hasiba. I anticipate that leaving the EU will probably be a bit like leaving the mafia - good for one's soul but bad for one's health.

Had we been given a referendum prior to the Maastricht Treaty then maybe all of this could have been avoided. John Major - who was apparently quoted as saying that he did not believe in Referendums - is ultimately responsible for today’s crisis which is a direct result of the move from economic to political integration..

The fact that EU Leaders have stuck together shouldn’t be a surprise or viewed as a conspiracy. Why would they not do so? If the UK has been humiliated by something that was so obvious and inevitable it shows a pretty stunning degree of stupidity by our political class. Ironically it was a king of England - Cnut - who made this exact point but is often misrepresented as the fool expecting the tide to reverse according to his will.

Underachieving is correct here JL. The British public- leavers and remainers alike - have deserved much better. It’s not been an example of world-class political leadership. Let's hope the worst of them get kicked out soon.

In the Government leaflet pre-Referendum it states that the Government will implement what the people decide. Parliament has since taken control and prevented the Government from carrying out its mandated job. In doing so, it has also failed to produce a satisfactory alternative and exposed the UK to what it itself deems a greater risk. Under these circumstance it is highly arrogant of our hopeless politicians to deny the UK public either a General Election or a Referendum.

The UK public has been failed at three key levels. Firstly and most seriously by Government, which called a referendum but, in rightly or wrongly recommending ‘Remain’, failed to competently spell out all the risks to electors of EU departure (there was no mention of NI border issues in the official Government advice, for example)
Secondly, Government has arrived at a negotiated proposal that did not pass parliamentary scrutiny. This was the result of insufficient cross-party involvement, due to Tory arrogance and Labour self-interest.
Thirdly, parliament has wilfully prevented Government from carrying out its publicly mandated task, without setting out a clear, practical and acceptable alternative. The latter issue should have been addressed by a competent opposition focused on national interest rather than ideological dogma.

The respective parties (large and small) have all failed us dismally and, having caused a breakdown in democratic process, I feel they are morally duty bound to refer the matter back to the UK public. Either by means of a G Election or a further Referendum based on leaving under the Government's current negotiated agreement (as promised and mandated first time around) or remaining (on the basis that Parliament has been unable to endorse the Government negotiated terms). This is not, of course, a re-run of the original Referendum, as the issue of Government implementation (vague in the first one) is now crystal clear.

Withoutt - very sorry to hear you've been put off this board. Sincere apologies if I've said anything to cause that - I don't think I have, but sometimes an apparently amusing comment can be sharper than intended and go astray. There are some good and thoughtful commentators with a range of views here and it's bound to provoke some debate. ATB

tiger100 215
Boyobach 219
Dhc 221
ocelot 230

oh - forgot to mention with that last chart: G is now at the same level wrt Brent as it was on the 19th November. This should be reassuring for those that feel the results represented good news, as the company should be stronger today and would logically be expected to progress positively from here. https://invst.ly/acrti

For Friday 23rd March

Well done DHC - the best of a pretty off-target team, I'm afraid.

The market invariably perplexes investors, for some the mystery is ‘why did G drop so much today?’ for others (like me) it’s ‘why didn’t it drop this far on Wednesday?’

It doesn’t matter much. If G was destined to fall, at least it did so to a fairly predictable support level and then recovered a bit: https://invst.ly/acrt5

Did it fall or was it pushed? Well, Brent was weaker but was hardly the cause and at least 197/198 wasn’t really tested (bottom right): https://invst.ly/acrt1

They all suffered a bit with Brent slacking off but none, of course, to the extent of G:
https://invst.ly/acrti

So, ‘top up’ or ‘sell off’ ? The trend is G’s friend at 200 and below that there are safety nets at around 197, 192 and, god forbid, 183. Let’s hope the last one isn’t visited. I replaced my 218p sells today, so at least the trading division of Boyo plc was in chirpier mood than the other half of this split personality outfit.

I don't think Miran spelt out any uncertainty from the market's pov. Quite the reverse.
Gas is a dead, deceased parrot etc etc. as far as market concerned. There's just the known (existing) oil production now. Anything else is just blue sky fantasy. Oh - and substantially less asset value, of course.
Market is right imv.