Member Info for Boyobach

She seems to be healing the rifts by uniting everyone in despair, JL.

Brexiteers will clearly be unhappy - hardly what they voted for. I have great sympathy for them.
Remainers likewise.
The only folks who might just about be happy are the Common Market Remainers - the ones who wish Maastricht had never happened. I guess I'm close to that group - but would have to admit that it's a bad deal when you still have to pay membership fees but have no say in the policies.
Remain and Leave are each better choices than what is likely to be finally presented. At least leave offered the prospect of sovereign freedom, albeit at risk of a huge price.
And if there is a public Confirmatory vote, guess which option will have been dropped? It will be Soft Brexit or No Brexit - so Parliament will have shifted the question away from Leave. Hardly good for democracy.

Which benchmark is that bunks? do you have a link to it? I haven't seen $70 yet.

The problem with rising OP at the moment is that it highlights how weak G is - like I have been banging on about since Results. This is the usual comparison but over one month only: https://invst.ly/ag5f6
G has been falling whilst all the rest rising.

She was never going to get anything useful from Parliament, Ocelot - as the indicative votes have indicated.

For Tuesday 2nd April

No real change.
Brent still chasing $70
https://invst.ly/afyvy
G virtually flat, slightly down on yesterday’s close and around 15p off its anticipated level at this OP.
15 min chart:
https://invst.ly/afyxm
Long term v Brent (from peak)
https://invst.ly/afy-r
All the rest:
https://invst.ly/afyu1

Sorry to be gloomy Hydrogen but whilst the adjusted red trend in today’s chart still looks good, I gave a health warning, because it rather flatters G given the last few days price action. If it were not for the last 15 minutes, G would have closed down on today’s opening price. Really abysmal given how OP is moving.

Looking at a 15’ view , with the ‘old’ trend shaded, you can easily see that G is no longer on the original rising trend and quite possibly moving horizontally now rather than up https://invst.ly/afle8 . It’ll take a few days to confirm any change of direction.

Those ‘p’ s on the chart are supposedly bearish indicators too - not mine but added by the invest.com charting system, I usually remove them but they seemed relevant to this chat..

G was the weakest of the pack over the last week - all the others (including PMO) rose more, although RDS perhaps equally as slow - but that’s the low volatility benchmark and G should be overtaking it as OP rises - as GKP is on the verge of doing.

For Monday 1st April

G is hardly responding to treatment - ie a strengthening OP which has Brent testing the top trend line here: https://invst.ly/afkg5

So a pretty disappointing day for G given that, with Brent at this level, G should be at around 220 on average performance https://invst.ly/afkf7

The trend is dead - long live the trend…. A health warning on the above chart as the red trend lines have been adjusted to take account of G breaking down through the lowest red last week. Let’s hope the more generous line suits sir a little better.

The rest of the pack, with G still the runt of the litter since last Monday (marked): https://invst.ly/afkfx

JL’s FC call of 194 for next week may look pessimistic to some but it’s become highly possible given the last two days of trading.

On Friday I commented on G going off-piste in a bad way: falling through the bottom red rising trend line on this chart was not good: https://invst.ly/af9-v

In the last two trading days my ‘home brew’ score for GvOP dropped to 2/10, getting ever closer to the 0/10 situation where it would become the worst score since 11th Feb when G hit a 0/10 score v OP by dropping to 177 at an OP of $62. If it did the same at an OP of $67 then the sp would be around 192p.

Is G just levelling out above 198 or is it set to fall further? The next few days will probably reveal the answer.

Boyobach 211
Withoutt 218

So we are down to three possibilities controlled by the people who represent us in Parliament:
‘No Deal Brexit’ engineered by Brexiteers to look accidental
‘No Brexit’ engineered by Remainers to look like they are avoiding an accident.
‘Half and Half Brexit’ engineered by Jezza Corbin and entirely accidental.

That's fascinating isn't it Hasiba?
US rig numbers reducing, because they are uneconomic to operate with WTI at $60, whilst Trump asks the KSA for more oil because the price is too high.
We have all known for some time that he is progressively screwing his own producers. Maybe his plan is to drive them out of business, with banks, shareholders etc taking the hit and then, as 'distressed' resources being acquired for peanuts and supplying cheap oil to the US (like them good ol' days... yee ha!).

Thanks Lemmings - I thought that was the case. A cash generative approach for distribution to investors and payment of bonds seems to be their approach. Makes sense to me as a model, especially in view of history. I believe Shaikan is a massive resource of heavy sour - is that a potential problem in terms of demand/price? I believe it has to be blended in order to be marketable to European buyers - although the US might take it perhaps - is that still correct?

For Friday 29th March

A most uninspiring week from G. https://invst.ly/aewux As positive as indicative votes.

Yesterday G went badly off piste to the downside and dropped below the upward trend and the nominal 203/4 support. OK, OP was a bit weaker but not markedly. Intraday lows of 198 started to look likely. However, Brent had firmed up overnight and G limped back on track at around 205p, but with OP rising to $68 G still only managed to cling on at 200.5 by the close, narrowly avoiding relegation to 1/10 v OP on Boyo’s half baked (BHB) scale.

Following a similar post-FY state of affairs for GKP, it had dropped close to G’s ‘mar cap’ level but ultimately bounced up from yesterday’s close. The two companies are hardly miles apart in mar-cap terms whilst neither are matching their performance v Brent of last summer. https://invst.ly/aewvz

It will be interesting to see how the two progress from here: GKP appears only interested in growing production at Shaikan, which should be more attractive to dividend seekers, whilst G seems to have ambitions to grow or maybe even sell the business - a rather different investment proposition. GKP has declared a $25m minimum future divi payout which I reckon G would have to match with $30m in order to have the same value per-share. However, GKP is offering a special divi this time around, bringing the immediate total to $50m which I reckon would equate to around $60m from G on a per share basis - so better than G’s possible $40m but appropriate given the company’s apparently dividend driven approach. If I’m correct in thinking GKP is prioritising dividend - I don’t believe they’ve hinted at acquisitions - then its sp should ultimately reflect that, growing according to yield and the prospective years of return from Shaikan perhaps with a more evident day to day dependence on oil price. This is possibly why there was a pull-back after the results, as folks crunched the numbers.

The rest of the pack now includes PMO at Hydrogen’s suggestion - seems to fit quite well without making too much of a jumble. https://invst.ly/aewzr

I must say that the attractions of PMO don’t jump out at me on this view, performance being worse than the rest as Brent fell. However, like G, it is back at the same level it was in mid November (as marked) - and there was a ‘very cheap period’, if you were minded to buy, in late December. It seems only GKP and DNO can really claim to be ‘up’ since 14th November:

Well bunks, GKP not stonking ahead so much after all after their results
https://invst.ly/aer3w

Hydrogen: PMO added here: https://invst.ly/aem2h

I streamlined the remainder of the chart a bit and, because PMO performed rather worse than the others as OP fell from October, it does not overlap any of them, so the chart is not too jumbled. May get away with it for a while. Not sure what I'll do once there's too many weeks since Peak Oil, will have to re-zero the chart which is a pity as it's a good reference point. Anyway, good enough for now I think.

OK Hydrogen.
RDS is there as a benchmark major - something you can reliably measure against: I put it there for me, as much as anything, because the others are high risk, by comparison. And if you wanted to switch your investment cash to lower risk oil then that's where you would go (or another major) , rather than the likes of PMO, However, I see your point - will have a look at putting PMO in there instead of RDS or DNO occasionally, especially as that chart is over several months and the daily variances are often not significant. ATB

Just picking up on a comment about flipping between G and GKP - there are obviously times when this could be, and certainly has been, a smart move. However I'd certainly be avoiding that move when they are both peaking or bottoming close to each other on the two comparison charts I posted today. It's a cool move if you can flog say G on a peak and buy GKP when there's clear space between them, especially if it's near a low (or vice versa). I think maybe that sort of activity does sometimes cause G and GKP to move in opposite directions - there's no doubt some people do like to flip between the two but it only really pays off when it's timed right. G is currently near a low - not ordinarily sell territory for me, whilst G appears to have been 'hot' since 11th March and might just cool off after the results - like G has done, so it's not at an obvious buy point for me (but I don't follow it ordinarily). The 'special' divi may keep GKP hot, of course. GLA

For Thursday 28th March

It seems G isn’t the only Kurdy oil co that can disappoint the market on results day. For those that like to check G v GKP here’s one comparison (bear in mind the start date was chosen for a match in mar cap rather than performance from the GKP reboot in Dec 2016 - this makes GKP's performance look much better than it actually has been): https://invst.ly/aejci

G, meanwhile has not performed especially well this week, https://invst.ly/aejbu . Moving sideways, having lost contact with the upward trends it had followed since Monday’s open until around mid-day today. https://invst.ly/aejdc .

Seemingly pinned around the 201 support level, tracking OP more closely (always a weak sign) and testing down, rather than up. On past behaviour it can do this for up to two weeks, which does not make it particularly fascinating to follow. It’s at a very low ratio to OP scoring just 2/10 on my home grown chart, which rates GvOP on a scale of 0 to 10. Prior to the results it was on 7/10. At today’s OP an sp of 192 would rate 0/10 whilst It would need to be at 233 to score a 10. So 192-233 represents the potential range of G at the current OP according to my estimation of its behaviour over the last year or so. It hasn’t scored a 10 since it was at 290+. It currently rates a ‘buy’ according to this home-brewed analysis, and I have done so, but the proviso is that it could obviously drop further and 192 is already on the radar.

The rest of the scurvy crew: https://invst.ly/aejf4

Of course Bercow could kibosh Teachers 3rd try.....

I think she and the ERG have already kiboshed her plan quite effectively.

Brexiteers were bound to have a big problem because there are numerous flavours of Brexit and they are unable to unify themselves. Remainers have only one proposition which unites them all.

For Wednesday 27th March

This week has been rather déjà vu second half of Feb, with G playing about in the 200-211 range but failing to hold 209..

Today’s first hour was good but after that it was rapidly downhill. Is G being played like the proverbial fiddle? I could get hooked on making 4 or 5% every day.
G’s cracking start - nearly to 212 - was promptly followed by a fall back to 204 and eventually 201, which did cause me to make a less optimistic realignment of the trend lines for todays 15min chart: https://invst.ly/ae50n

As things stand, it looks like it could be between Tiger (215) and Mark888man (205) for the FC trophy. Things had looked well set for 215 or more by Friday Close - until today’s early afternoon upset. Hopefully JL will remain out of the running but won’t mind too much.

A self-indulgent cathartic day for the poor stressed-out and misguided backbenchers in parliament today, JL. A total waste of time in reality as they are debating and voting on stuff that the EU will not adopt as binding. In any case, procedurally, the EU can only negotiate with the PM who won’t be materially influenced by the feeble indicative nonsense and can’t be removed by anyone - least of all the Tories unless/until, maybe, they pay the price of accepting her withdrawal deal.

TM is in a surprisingly strong position if she chooses to ignore everyone: Brexiteers crumbling now and Remainers starting to realise that they can’t stop or soften Brexit further unless, somehow, they band together and engineer a General Election through a vote of no confidence. The people are probably about to get proportionately what they voted for in the Referendum and the subsequent GE: few of the benefits of Remain and little of the freedom of Brexit for a few years. There are sadly times when Democracy doesn’t deliver a good result. Time to have a drink, watch the carnage and LMAO.