Member Info for Boyobach

For Monday 15th April

Further to this morning's comments, with not much happening sp wise, this is probably the only chart needed for a while:
https://invst.ly/ajpv8

With the rest of the field:
https://invst.ly/ajpyu

Doing a similar comparison v OP for the others, whilst G is about level with 7th November’s price performance, GKP looks about 10% up, PMO down a touch, RDS about level and DNO around 20% up - the latter, I guess, partly due to non-KRI developments.

I should make this additional observation on noticing that G’s and Brent’s pricing today (219p / $71) are each virtually identical to what they were on November 7th (the two blue vertical date lines here):
https://invst.ly/ajn0n

This suggests, of course, that the market has not significantly revalued G since then.

It's a cat and mouse game between OPEC+ and US 'tight oil' producers, many of whom are heavily leveraged and must borrow or reduce dividends in order to finance increased production. As OP goes up they are tempted to ramp up production, causing OPEC+ a dilemma because they are holding back production in order to increase revenues not to loose more market share. In that context, the quoted comments make complete sense. By reminding the US producers that OPEC+ can drive the price back down rapidly they are firing a warning shot: 'if you commit cash to increasing production as the price rises to our preferred level we will make sure you suffer the consequences'.

For Monday morning 15th April

OP may have slackened off slightly since Friday but it remains near the top of the dominating trend that it has followed since the beginning of the year.
https://invst.ly/ajm4l
It could potentially drop back as low as $69 and still remain within the long term trend but, as the US driving season approaches, it’s hard to imagine a significant fall back below $70 for the next few months. Indeed, further rises seem on the cards.

G meanwhile seems to have dropped off the rising trend it had been following for a week https://invst.ly/ajmbb .
and settled to a new trading range of maybe 218-226, around 15p up on the previous level near 203.
https://invst.ly/ajm9g
In these circumstances, ie no definite up or down trend, G often remains within a 10p range for a couple of weeks during which it is likely to track OP in the absence of any other stimulus. The fun will probably only restart if G manages to puncture 230, which would require an OP of $73 or more as things stand. By comparison, G needed an OP of around $80 to trade at 230p last October, so that's an indication of an improvement in sp performance since then. Going beyond 230 could represent quite a challenge if the chart is anything to go by.

So unless G drops below 217 or attacks 230 with some vigour there’s unlikely to be much further for me to add on this topic for a while.

JL 210
Boyo 222
Bunks 228
Withoutt 230
Rangor 233
tiger100 235
Klassic 236
Lemming 241

Ha, indeed bunks, there'll be plenty of minnows like that one! And I will defo make the same mistake again and again. Meanwhile,I don't see G progressing past 230 for while, which is contra to the fundamentals I know. The 250s look like they are at least another month away unless summat happens. ATB

For Friday 12th April

The afternoon session did not add much to G’s story, rather as expected. Note to self: when you have a target sell point in mind stick to it. FOMO decisions are usually bad ones. Unless you are buying, it would be nice if G did not drop back below 216, although 209 can’t be ruled out before another attempt upward.
https://invst.ly/aj34-
Same chart with OP (rebased to 3/10/18)
https://invst.ly/aj33b

Here are the other runners but rebased from 1st March. Note the dish shaped curve of G since the results: https://invst.ly/aj38l and today’s reversal (unique to G of course) as it hit an historic resistance point. 228-230 did seem a bit optimistic this time, I guess. Maybe if OP stays firm….

For Friday 12th April, mid-day

I should have stuck to my initial plan to sell at 225, it seems, as the fall back to 218 would have provided an immediate 3% cash gain which would have been worth pocketing. I often find it’s the background but regular few hundred quid that make this game more satisfying. Will G make a the third attempt at 225 and push through? Or is 220 the new 203-style resting place? - starting to feel like it might be. With the past week’s surge appearing to have run out of steam for the moment it doesn’t look as if 230 will be seriously tackled in the next week or two unless OP provides a shove. The 15 min chart tells the story: https://invst.ly/aj099

And here is the same chart with Brent for comparison, with G clearly nowhere near its pre-results form: https://invst.ly/aj08f , which by trend and OP would have placed it about 6% up on the current price, ie over 230. Let’s see what the afternoon brings...

For Thursday 11th April

Certainly an improvement whilst I was away. I had set a ‘sell’ order for a trading tranche of 5000 at 225 (acquired at avg of 201) but decided to cancel that in view of the pace of this week’s moves and the fact that, even at today’s close of 224, G is barely at mid strength cf OP - with a score of 4/10 on Boyo’s scale. Here’s G v Brent since October, showing the significant trend lines:
https://invst.ly/aisvm
You can see that on March 4th, pre results, G was near 230 (228), whilst Brent was much lower than today (62.74). That rated a Boyo score of 10/10. G would need to reach 250 at today’s OP to match that score again. Alternatively, on today’s modest score, an OP of $78 would be needed to push it near to 250p.

I may still sell that tranche in the 226-230 zone but it seems worthwhile to wait and see if it conquers 230, in which case 226 would become a logical stop loss point for that tranche whilst the target moves up to 248-258.

The rest of the field: https://invst.ly/ait7t

Hi JL - nothing exotic , not leaving these shores or visiting sites of geological interest. But hopefully very little time to be bothered with squiggly lines.... or Brexit. Just as well as I'm not likely to be happy with the outcome whatever that ultimately happens to be. Keep ranting! ATB

For Thursday morning 4th April

The warning signs were there last Thursday and Friday only to get louder during the week. Needless to say they reached a crescendo this morning as G dropped below the ‘leniently adjusted’ trend. https://invst.ly/agl2u
One man’s warning can be another’s opportunity/downfall, of course, and I did add a modest few, bringing my average cost back up to 158p per share.

Boyo’s GvOP score this morning unsurprisingly reached 0/10. A score which signals that G is down to the Brent line on the GvBrent chart from 3/10/18. A glance at this shows what G recently tends to do when it reaches this level. https://invst.ly/agl46

So, if you are looking for Reasons to be Cheerful then this chart, fwiw, suggests that G tends to bounce up from here, eventually progressing to a peak. However, that was before the FY results, which seems to have cast a shadow on G’s prospects as far as the market is concerned. Obviously, the chart does not indicate quite so clearly what might happen if G drops below the Brent line, but the historic support levels should apply.

As I head off on holiday I’ll check in occasionally. GLA in the meantime.

Don’t be concerned about my time DHC, I have to keep an eye on G anyway. I see you thought G might be 225 by Friday’s close and I thought 211? I'm interested in why we are both likely to have overestimated.

Just on the thorny subject (which has perplexed me greatly in the past) of which Brent reference price to use (and there are many) I was just reading a Reuters report about today from New York which says:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil prices were little changed on Wednesday even after U.S. government data showed a surprise increase in crude inventories, as OPEC-led output cuts and U.S. sanctions kept the supply outlook tight. Brent futures were unchanged at $69.37 a barrel by 11:00 a.m. EST (1500 GMT). Their session high was $69.96, the highest since Nov. 12, when they traded above $70.

I see other reports are making something of the fact that Brent was ‘near the psychological $70 level’ So it seems that LCO (ICE), rather than NY Crude, is indeed the one that the media uses - even in NY.

And, for those that might have noticed (it does make a difference), here's the G v Brent chart with the last five days included (sorry):

https://invst.ly/agdm6

I must write 100 times: It's Corbyn not Corbin or Lenin or Stalin or any other names that end in in in in....

Carry out the will of the people!

Well they would have done, JL, but when the class were asked they surprisingly gave the wrong answer, which just wouldn't do at all. Teacher thought she knew best but has now had to get help from the supply teacher, Mr Corbin drafted in from his allotment to help her control the classroom, and he says she's not been soft enough (even though he secretly hoped the class would get its way plunge everything into chaos and she'd take the blame, get sacked and he'd get her job because he'd appear to be rational and sensible and nice). Is that the right answer sir?

I should have mentioned, the green line in that last chart represents the overall 'two part' trend that Brent has followed since oil was at a minimum. It's there just to put G's overall progress in some kind of context. https://invst.ly/agcf3

For Wednesday 3rd April

Well there are two distinct ways of viewing today:
G is stuffed and not destined for a much greater sp until the company can report something to counter reaction to the FY news about Gas.
The prospects are still good, G goes through cycles of weakness against the OP and this is just part of that pattern.
I don’t like to be caught potentially ramping - tend to do the opposite - but of those two I’m inclined towards b) although I do think the vague position re Bina Bawi plus the write down at Miran, ‘well trailed’ as it might have been, was a severe kick in the nuts - very painful, perhaps more so because it was anticipated. The Miran thing also leaves a huge question mark over Bina B - which now seems uncertain and may be the real reason there’s no enthusiasm for G right now.

How bad is G’s sp performance? Well a monthly view of the usual suspects shows just how poorly G has performed since early March: https://invst.ly/agcey

Here is G v Brent since Peak Oil in October: https://invst.ly/agcgy

And here’s the full story since Minimum Oil in January: https://invst.ly/agcf3

G is now at 1/10 on Boyo’s scale of performance against OP. 0/10 only occurs when it hits the buffers and the scale has to recalibrate - it’s done that just once before this year. To score a 5/10, the mid value, G would need to be 220. And to hit 10/10 (which is as strong as it can get without recalibration) G would need to be at 242.

So ramp or de-ramp analysis, the choice is yours and you can always submit an indicative vote if you like.

One quick comment on OP: I use Brent LCO ICE, which is quoted by media like Bloomberg and Malcy (I think - although I believe only the last closing price is given on his page). The New York Crude spot prices (like XBR I used to use) track it very closely but are usually a bit higher and did hit over $70 today, although LCO did not - I think it actually maxed out at $69.96. I’d certainly call that $70.

Thanks bunks. There are several prices for Brent worldwide, your OANDA New York crude price is just a little higher than ICE so it would get to $70 a bit sooner.

I know XBR (New York Crude) can be about $0.5 above LCO - I used to follow that one but not convinced its the one quoted in the media. I eventually decided LCO is probably the main reference - stand to be corrected.