Member Info for Boyobach

If Brent is at $74 tomorrow then G should logically achieve an sp of at least 223, based upon its modest strength v OP last Thursday. Based upon its recent average strength v OP then 235 could be expected, although there’s resistance at around 226 and 230 which would probably slow it down or hold it back. The absolute maximum level I’d anticipate it reaching if OP were to remain at $74 over a period, based on best performance v OP so far this year (on 10/3/19), would be around 258 - an unlikely projection in my view, but demonstrably possible. These predictive sp figures would vary by about 3p for every $1 variation in OP.

Last November, prior to recent company news and updates, G just about managed 226p at an OP of $73. So the next few days could provide a reality check on how well the market is judging G since then.

'Boyo, I think you might be balloted out by 7.59 Tuesday. Where's the bloody ref?....'

Quite right JL - what a cheek eh? And some newbie called Hawkey took my favoured choice of re-running 222 for another week!! So I've gone for 219, which I'm hoping will prove to be an underestimate although I believe 229 will be top whack for a while. News about Bina B is undoubtedly the joker in the pack at the moment. GLA

Rangor 216
Boyobach 219
Hawkey 222
Scoredagainsteps 224
Bunks 225
Oilheadgame 228
Withoutt 230
broadland 235

Ha JL - touché!
You may have to wait till Monday at 23.59 hours!

I don't actually know when the closing point is - presumably before market opens for the week? I'm sure Ocelot knows.

Well done indeed JL!

I'm going to wait to see what OP is doing before I pitch for next week's prize!

Typo: Had G merely been tracking OP this week it should have remained above 218 today. .......

For Thursday 18th April

Had G merely been tracking OP this week it should have remained above 2018 today. However, with the opening price below support, and with a lower OP and market in general, a dip was on the cards. The hourly chart illustrates:
https://invst.ly/akr63

So G has sunk a bit deeper into the doldrums, with 7p knocked off the lower end of the near-term range - putting it at 211-225. It has also weakened further against OP and I reckon it’s now about 13p down on where it could be based on recent average performance. https://invst.ly/akr66

The rest of the field not markedly changed, however: https://invst.ly/akr61

I'd have to agree with that DHC - 227 would be right for G on a recent historic 'average' basis with respect to Brent. But it isn't all about Brent - which is sometimes a good thing.

Maybe bunks, but Brent has been pretty flat this week and below $71 with G at 218 - https://invst.ly/akoe8
so I think it is more to do with the market in general. Plus, as G has been moving sideways for a few days 'mid trend' as it were, there's a risk of it being pulled down to the lower line (210 ish). If this board reflects sentiment then you can see that some folks will get frustrated and decide to sell - even though it may not be a particularly good point to do so.

For mid-day Thursday 18th April

Calm down chaps. G’s sp isn’t doing anything particularly unexpected, although the fall below 217 was disappointing. Many stocks down today including benchmark RDS. Having dropped to 213.5 today, 210 would be the next logical destination - so if it avoids that drop then it will have done relatively well and still be within its longer term upward trend: https://invst.ly/aknw-

From a mar cap pov still looks about the same as GKP (dyor), with similar performance overall since GKP hit its peak last August: https://invst.ly/akntn

bunks: 100% agree to your response to me and others on this thread.

I agree, bunks - but your list didn't specifically mention Miran write down (although TBF it was in the FY). Last year G hit £3 on good prospects for Oil and Gas. Oil is delivering but gas isn't AND has been written down Is that worth 70p off last year's top price? Quite possibly in my view. There may even be worse to come - jury out on Bina B ?

For Wednesday 17th April

There seems to be some incredulity about G’s current trading range (nominally 2018-2026). I’m not sure why, because the sp is fairly consistent with the OP on an historic basis (admittedly a tad weak but not by a huge margin). From a trend perspective, G is behaving pretty much as it has done previously and as might be expected, ie, all else remaining equal, no pressure to move up or down would be expected until early May - the vertical blue marker here -
https://invst.ly/akbwd
at which point the current sp begins to be challenged by this year’s long term upward trend and will hopefully have begun to move upward rather than breaking through it.
Until then - unless OP rockets or there’s company news - I think we may as well chillax.

I can't disagree with your comments, Hydrogen - there's obviously much more complexity/nuance that we can only speculate about. here I'll freely admit that my view is somewhat tainted by G's record of promising prospects followed by unfortunate disappointments - eventually this leads to a highly sceptical view. In terms of understanding the market's pricing of G - which is my main concern - I'd like to think that Bina Bawi isn't critical to the current sp level, although any bad news always knocks G back even if it appears to have been priced-in.
GLA.

Forgot to change the date (too bored really) - the last one obv for today Tuesday 16th. Could probably do for any day this week TBF.

Re the gas, Hydrogen, you may be right and all will be well for G and the Bina Bawi field - but when? I'm just mindful that the FY report referred to 'challenging' discussions and the write down of Miran just a couple of weeks after the Pearl consortium announce a 20 year gas sales agreement with the KRG. Pearl are now big buddies with MNR after years of wrangling in the courts, which the KRG lost to the tune of $2.24billion, around half of which was to be recovered from future revenues..... so I imagine that put Pearl well ahead of G in the queue to monetise gas reserves

I don't read any of that as even remotely encouraging for G. So if the gas happens at Bina Bawi anytime within the next two years it will be a bonus and a massive surprise to me. I guess we'll soon know unless the deadline is put back another year (likeliest outcome I reckon).

For Monday morning 15th April

With OP pretty flat, G having levelled out after last week’s surge and nothing else happening, I reckon G is now likely to continue in the 218-228 range, mostly near 220, for a while. A pessimistic view might anticipate the risk of a drop back to 205 if G became as weak v Brent as it was, say, around 11th Feb.

Here are the others but rebased to 12th March to show very recent performance - a randomly selected date so of no particular significance (Unlike the comparisons rebased to peak oil).
https://invst.ly/ak2b8
At least this shows that G has crawled back to rejoin the pack since the results. Whilst PMO has impressively surged ahead, do bear in mind this flatters PMO somewhat. Remember how much PMO fell after peak op? so, in reality, it is only just catching up - as the usual chart rebased to peak oil demonstrates:
https://invst.ly/ak2m7

Like I said yesterday - having dropped off the recent rising trend, G will probably drift sideways for a week or two mostly tracking OP, like it is
https://invst.ly/aj-69

Hopefully it will stay above 218, anything over 226, approaching 230, will be mildly interesting but don't hold your breath

Hydrogen asked: Boyo what's your source on pearl/dana producing all the gas required locally?

Numerous industry press sources - but this more formal statement:
http://www.pearlpetroleum.com/pearl-petroleum-signs-gas-sales-agreement-with-kurdistan-regional-government-to-boost-gas-supplies.html

Given Ocelot's informative post and link earlier (re Rosneft's gas pipeline project)... I'm not optimistic. My understanding is that Pearl/Dana are providing all the gas that's needed locally and that the export demand isn't there. To what extent this is political or whether the root cause is commercial ie lack of demand, isn't clear to me. I think the market is pricing G without Bina Bawi's oil or gas and may even be assuming another write-down. If I'm correct in thinking that the oil can be exploited without compromising the gas resource then maybe we'll at least see that being developed. I know some here see G as imminently going to £5 - well I'm not one of them.