Member Info for Boyobach

G is not on AIM.

I'll try that link again:
https://invst.ly/aszw5

looks like a . got added first time around.

Cheers bunks and well done all, especially those who topped up yesterday - glad your order called filled Hawkey.

The bounce has started healthily - by previous ones (highlighted) it should be just the start https://invst.ly/aszw5.

220-230 does not seem unreasonable. Who knows? with strong OP and good response to RNS this may yet crack 230.

GLA

Best of luck to you JL - sorry that G didn't deliver for you. All the best!

For Wednesday 15th May 2019:

There are days when you can’t leave things to chance and a limit order that might backfire. So unfortunately I wasn’t around to snap G up when it fell to around 203. The prices near the close don’t fully reflect that excellent ‘buy’ opportunity but nevertheless demonstrate the ‘magic’ 0/10 score that signals G is ripe for picking (or going down to the next level - depending on your viewpoint). Really not a day to be selling - sorry JL .

G=206.00p (not the lowest of the day, which was around 203)
Brent=71.6$
G/Brent=2.88p/$
Score=0/10

The trend chart I produced yesterday has needed only a slight tweak to take account of today’s drop which was on the cards but unexpected - because I really thought 209 would hold - hence my previous buy back of half the tranche I sold at 229. The clincher today would have been being around to see G fall to less than 2.86 x Brent and trigger the 0/10 score. You don’t usually get G cheaper than that, only a couple of times this year I believe (see next chart). Maybe it’ll hang around at that level tomorrow - although the bounce from contact with the green Brent line shown here is usually swift:
https://invst.ly/asrqp

For those that can’t figure ‘why G fell and others didn’t’ it’s worth remembering the gravitational pull that the next lower support line exerts once a price has lost grip on the one above. There’s always some risk, of course, that it will slip even further - there are no guarantees in this game, which is why I only bought back half the tranche at 209.

The rest of the runners:
https://invst.ly/asrjk

It was certainly an interesting move this morning.
FWIW, G has cycled down to as low as 2.86 x Brent ($) twice previously this year and was heading that way again.
It's where it touches the green Brent line here: https://invst.ly/askdl
It's almost periodic
Anything below 204 would therefore be a potential top-up (trading buy) point for me.

Ah - the fundamentals Hawkey. Yes, by rights the best products should always win but the market doesn't always allow them to.

Well the upward trend G had enjoyed for the last four and a half months appears to be dead, so what is the new one? The writing was on the wall as far back as April 4th, not long after the FY results, but the strength of OP appeared to postpone the inevitable until a week ago, unless the die was already cast.

Some here think we may soon see $80 Brent - which can’t be ruled out - in which case a parallel to the old trend may yet get established. But with OP currently settling in the region of $70, G could simply do likewise, meandering along in the 210-230 range until something significant happens, as I suggested earlier.

However, for those who believe that G’s value is underestimated on current metrics then I guess there could be some residual upward momentum even without direct pressure from OP. So, for the optimists amongst us, and I’m not necessarily one myself, who believe that G’s sp progress might still continue even if OP has stalled, here’s a stab at a more bullish possibility with the old trend in faded blue and a less demanding potential path in red. I’ve previously likened trend changes to the line a bus marks out as it rounds a bend - although you can be fairly certain that these invariably clip the kerb in the process.

In the end, changes in any sp’s direction seem to be as much about crowd behaviour as the numbers - so on that basis it can be amusing to try and spot the next trend whilst it is forming:

https://invst.ly/asck2

Hi H,

I covered the positive 'extras' you mention with some caveats - 'unless this, if that ' etc. Truth is that I'm not making assumptions about any of them anytime soon. G has always been 'a story' and for the most part it has turned out to be a fairy tale - mostly about vanishing intangibles and the wicked IS or folks in Baghdad etc etc. Qara Dagh is the latest of these story lines. All the positive stuff you mention will only matter if/when it happens, in the meantime it's all about the OP and actual production levels.

That's the difference between a believer and an investor - and, dare I say, between you and me. If OP holds (come September I wouldn't be too sure) then 210 is possibly as good a time as any if you are thinking of buying. I just topped back up at 209. But it's easy for me to say, my current holding average is around 145, which I intend to trade down to around 100p if possible. I have no intention of increasing the book cost of my exposure, my objective is to reduce it by trading over time. I wouldn't personally start from scratch with a big chunk at 209. I'm currently following PFC closely (again) it's done Ok for me in the past. Knowing when to exit is at least as important as choosing the buy point. GL

For Tuesday 14th May 2019:

Not a chart in sight today JL Elcapitan’s response yesterday gave me pause for thought too. I am disappointed with G but if performance against peers is all that counts then why bother or analyse it?

It’s become apparent over the last three years since the 2014/2015 collapse of OP that Brent is generally targeted towards the $60 - $75 range. Excursions above and below this do, of course, occur but corrections of supply seem likely to haul it back to within this range. The mid point is then around $67, which seems as optimistic an average to work with as any, given that OP will always be volatile.

This would, in turn, put G’s average sp into the range of 191 (weakest ratio 2.86 ) to 233 (strongest ratio 3.48), with a mid-point of around 212. Not far off the levels we have right now. The numbers also fit closely with support and resistance levels that G has encountered recently and over the last 12 months, which separately suggest that G could level out in the 197-230 range if this year’s advance in OP has reached its climax.

The point of all this is to demonstrate that, unless the gas is unlocked or new resources are added, G is essentially a straight play on OP. For whilst production might be ramping up from existing fields this is partially offset by the reducing life of the resource. Cash accumulation is already priced in and, imo, will tend to soften the bottom end of the sp range rather than boost the top end. So, my conclusion would be that prospects of the sp exceeding 260 (that’s $75 OP x max ratio together with an established resistance at that level) could be very limited.

As others here have said, G represents a trading opportunity meanwhile, with FOMO, imo, becoming a severe test for some at 230 and, if it progresses further, at 260. For those who are determined to stay long, the prospects have always seemed to hinge on the elusive gas. That's always been an essential core theme in the eight year G story, hence the recurring use of the word 'patient' on this board. Will that long running story have a happy ending and will I stick around long enough to see it?

but does anybody see any rockets........?

I've followed G for a few years now, when did they last produce a rocket at a routine report?

I'm with JustinD's view.

Yes elcapitan, just . Somewhat flattering to G, which was doing pretty hopelessly in mid Feb.
I don't necessarily find it comforting though when an OP of $65 tomorrow could take the sp down to less than 195p when, in early March, G was at 210p under similar circumstances.
G's sp has undoubtedly weakened since mid March even though OP has been rising and it is pretty much level with where it was in November for similar OP. Yet the company is supposedly much stronger now - which can be either good or bad depending on your trading position.

Score= 2/10 (very poor and back to pre- 10th April performance)

For Monday 13th May 2019:

A rubbish day, frankly, although G doesn’t appear to have been alone in dropping well below par.
G= 210.50 p
Brent= 70.8 $
G/Brent= 2.97 p/$
Score= 2/10 (very poor and back to 10th April performance)

An hourly chart shows how today and recent days have gone:
https://invst.ly/aryyg

And the others: https://invst.ly/ary-6

Yes Hydrogen - at the moment it looks like Faroe is dragging DNO back. It's not a very useful comparison with G nowadays.

Whilst it’s nice to see G rising on the back of strengthening OP, LT holders need to see the sp gradually improve as a multiple of OP.
G p is still only 3.05 x Op$. A year ago it was 3.22 x.OP That would have given us an sp of 231p today
G isn't going to shoot any lights out until that ratio is up over 4.

G=219.50p
Brent=71.9$
G/Brent=3.05p/$
Score=3/10

Bunks 215
scoredagainsteps 217
boyobach 219
IANAA 220
tiger100 222
stockbuster 224
broadland 225
DhC 229
Withoutt 230
Hasiba 232
ocelot 235
Hawkey 240
rockhoper 249

OK, so courtesy of Reuters-based reports, DNO earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) rose to $37.9 million in the quarter from $25 million from the same period a year ago, lagging a forecast of $73.2 million in a Reuters poll of analysts.
The Oslo-listed company also said it planned to increase its total capital and exploration expenditure in the Kurdistan region of Iraq and in the North Sea to $440 million in 2019 from $200 million last year…..

The market has since wiped nearly 15% off the sp, pulling DNO back down to below the level it reached when oil peaked in October, and halving the percentage lead it had achieved v G and GKP in that period. Suddenly the effect of G’s results don’t look so bad. What is interesting is that it can’t be the Kurdish biz that’s caused the problem - G having gone up slightly even as DNO headed rapidly down. I’m assuming it was the failure to meet analyst forecasts plus the planned expenditure that did the damage?
Bearing in mind that G was way ahead of the others in the ‘April only’ comparison, ordinarily putting it at a disadvantage as the others play catch-up, it’s not looking so dusty so far for May -
https://invst.ly/arc5q
If you want to check how April looked, here it is (as posted at the time):
https://invst.ly/ao0ih

My thanks to JL for not entering this week and giving me a chance. A lucky punt in an otherwise uninspiring week for everyone.
Let's hope we are all in luck next week and that G and Brent go forth and multiply, in the profitable sense.

For Friday 10th May 2019:

It occurs to me that people who wonder why GKP sometimes runs higher than G but fail to notice when the opposite happens are probably the sort of people who think that bullets fired into the air vanish and don’t pose any kind of risk. If they’ve ever bothered to look at this chart then they presumably haven’t got a clue what it means:
https://invst.ly/ar9pv
One thing it shows is that G has done relatively OK recently compared to GKP and GKP is simply catching up…..but hasn’t quite. Best not mention DNO I suppose, or the fact that, without gas, G is just like GKP but minus the big resource.

Meanwhile, in the land beneath the cuckoo filled clouds,

G= 214.00 p
Brent= 70.8 $
G/Brent= 3.02 p/$
Score= 3/10 (improving!)

Not brilliant but G did sufficiently Ok today for me to replace half the tranche I sold at 229 for around 209.
https://invst.ly/ar9qe
This was on the grounds that 203 is starting to look less likely and I also thought ‘WTF, just buy some and pocket the profit and some divi’. You can’t apply cold logic to everything and a glass of vino in the sunshine does help release my grip on cash, especially when some of Hawkey’s RTBC seem to make sense (always a worrying sign).

On a serious note, I’ll declare that my current intention is to substantially exit G by November unless there’s been some positive news about Bina B and the bit of the Chevron deal that has a realistic prospect of success. Qara Dagh, I suspect, is possibly for the birds and might even be a money pit. I’ll be very happy to be wrong about that.

It would just be good if it closes above 210, at least 211 ideally.
218 is a realistic possibility, especially if OP firms up a bit. Go Hasiba!