Member Info for Boyobach

Leem1: 'Genel does not need high oil prices so why does this get completely battered when oil falls a dollar?'

Oil is the only commodity that G sells, the higher the OP the more G earns. It's pretty simple.Oil falls $3 (since yesterday's oil market close) and G falls 9p. It's really that easy when G is reacting purely to OP. Sometimes, of course, it's reacting to other stuff as well.

Maybe.

But it's been downhill for all the Kurdy oil co's since DNO peaked in late April.
https://invst.ly/awstg
G no better or worse than the other two over that time frame.

The outlook for OP is increasingly bearish, so G and the others were bound to suffer.

Hi DHC - The divi just paid (ie the ex-divi amount) was 10c per share. There are about 280m shares - so the divi will apparently cost G about $28m next month.

The ex-div discount just gets added to other movements, so in BP's case if the shares went up by 31p over eight days after ex-div then they effectively gained 31p plus a fairly short term equivalent to the ex div amount. The ex-div discount diminishes over a period and may well be dwarfed by other factors. It can distort charts and straight comparisons with others.

That's all plain factual stuff - quite possibly 'tosh' in Farage language.

For Tuesday 28th May

A nothing day, G slightly down but effectively flat - basically a correction for rising a bit more than some others on Friday. There are no rules for how long the ex-div effect takes to work through the system. One theory I saw, which made sense, was the time it takes a Co to earn the cash to pay for the divi and hence restore the mar-cap to an appropriate level. I have no idea how valid that theory is but that would be about a month for G I guess? Meanwhile G is at an sp identical to Feb 13th (marked on the chart) when OP was $63.5 - so about 15p shy of what might have been expected back then at today’s OP. Indeed, G was making 201p at this OP in the bleaker days of March. Given that a 10c (8p) ex-div has just occured, however, it’s frankly not much adrift from GKP et al. DNO is down over the period and RDS is flat. Compared with the other usual suspects, there's nothing remarkable about G's price and, although it's not very exciting, it would be reasonable to assume that it will eventually get back to the 200+ range unless OP slips:
https://invst.ly/awnv5

What is DNO's FCF ?

Yeah, that's a bit like saying City won't have to defend their winning position in future. yada yada yada.

Everything is a bit like saying something else. 'Brexit means Brexit' is a bit like saying 'I'm the last prophet....'

MP's currently think they can stop 'no-deal', however it remains the default and will happen if May's replacement toughs it out. As 63% of voters expressed no view last week - a much more meaningful indicator of sentiment than the 'People's Vote' Petition - the likelihood increases whilst they wring their useless hands. Corbyn is playing a masterly game - he's a 'leaver' who will inherit what he want's from a Gov't that will take most of the blame.

I don't disagree with you Hawkey - I was just observing the path the company seems to be following.

As 63% couldn't be ar_sed to vote I reckon that the Brexit issue isn't such a big deal for the vast majority. Given the unequivocal party positions available to voters who had a view, these elections were a serious chance for those who genuinely care about the democratic process to validate the outcome of the Referendum or express a change of mind now that the issues have been better explored. Yet nearly 2/3rds of voters chose not to bother. So, in my view, that silent majority kinda deserve what they get.

On a straight remain/leave division, although the Brexit Party dominated as a single entity the unequivocally 'remain' parties claimed a larger share, effectively leaving a decisive casting vote buried within the Labour and Tory rump and, of course, the 63% who chose not to bother. That's 63% who can shut the f up as far as I'm concerned in the ongoing debate.

What message did Qara Dagh and Sarta send Hawkey?

Hardly a new direction.

H: With nearly 4 p per share being paid in June and another 2p (ish) in August that is a serious return on your money....

My understanding (and currently on G's website) is a final divi of 10c per share for 2018 (= 7.87p per share at current exch rate) and payable 24/6/19.

boyobach 197
without 200
scoredagainsteps 205
dodger777 211
broadland 215
IANAA 220
hawkey 231

Excellent thread, Tartine & Hydrogen - greatly appreciate and respect your contributions - thanks.

For Friday 24th May

It was just G’s luck that ex-div fell on a day when the market blinked. So, with quite a few variables: market jitters, OP slide and ex-div discounting - where are we now?

The starting point for me is G v the Rest since Peak Oil, the nearest I can get to some kind of reference that doesn’t favour any of the runners unduly:
https://invst.ly/avnpk
By that measure, G was performing somewhat better than the others today and moving quickly towards regaining its position v GKP (where G is ahead more often than not). If OP were to remain above $68 then I guess 210 may yet be regained over the next week or two.

Against Brent, one sp objective is to progressively eliminate the gap between the two respective price lines in this G v Brent chart (green dashed, darker = Brent). This gap represents G’s weakness v Brent which naturally increased when the ex-div discount was applied to the sp yesterday: https://invst.ly/avnoj

G just touched 189 - that's 197 in pre-div terms and, on that basis, the strongest it has been v Brent in a little while. Very promising.

DHC: I think all know that the oil price will recover back into the $70 dollar per barrel regions.

Conflicting messages about supply and demand mean that the price could move sharply up or down at any time. US production will progressively quench any WTI rise much above $60. Planning for the worst and hoping for the best is the only sensible approach.

US production levels and current sluggish refinery numbers have a direct effect on WTI in that area, whilst global supply is apparently still fairly tight. KSA seem determined to appease Trump whilst also wishing to keep Brent at $70+ if possible. It’s quite a balancing act but, with Russian support, they seem to be able to control it. So I think the risk of sub $50 Brent for any significant period is now pretty low.

If Brent averages $65 over the year then I believe it will have exceeded EIA expectations. On G’s recent performance v OP, where it ranges from 2.8x to 3.5x OP$, $65 could be expected to support an sp between 182 and 228, with 205 in the centre. I allow 3p per $ variation in the bbl OP from that mid- point to get me to a realistic but conservative estimation of what G’s sp should be. So at $50, I’d expect the sp to steady up near 160p (like it did on Xmas Eve). So, even during trading, my average holding value never exceeds 160p with the core value progressively being reduced to 100p.

For those that are interested, G v GKP Mar Cap is pretty much in sync today. G is usually ahead but slightly behind after yesterday:
https://invst.ly/avhq6

Just stating the bloomin obvious, as usual, but for those who are feeling deflated because they've just seen their shares in G drop from 201.5p to 180 you can stay reasonably cheerful because:
a) 180p is notionally a price discounted by 8p in the short term (and there’s a small gap to fill at 200 as a marker)
b) You’ll be getting 8p in cash pretty soon

So, although the shares fell 21.5p from 201.5 (10.7%), the ‘loss’ is effectively offset by 16p to just 5.5p or 2.7% . Meanwhile, for example, GKP experienced a 9.6% drop and PMO lost about 13%, with nothing to sweeten the pill as far as I'm aware.

For Thursday 23rd May

It’s not pleasant to see the sp down at 180 BUT, if you are braced for it and remain confident about the fundamentals, then it can present a good top-up or re-entry opportunity. To put today’s sp in perspective, it is worth remembering that G achieved 190p + on 29th November with an OP sliding below $60.

I’m apparently known for being a bit bearish but even I think the company is in a better position since then. Plus G’s holders will have trousered the divi. Unlike those at GKP, who took a similar hit today. It should all equalise over time, of course.

Here’s a long view of G as a reminder of the path this has taken for the last twelve months: https://invst.ly/avao0 You’ll notice (bunks) that 177 (next support) can’t be ruled out for tomorrow, especially if OP nudges things in that direction.

Earlier in the week I mentioned keeping the 3x number in mind. It should indicate an easily attainable sp for G to reach for a given OP ($/bbl). On that basis, even at $65 Brent, G’s sp should be able to regain 195-200p within a reasonable time. Typically at $67 Brent, G has reached around 208p.

Here are three comparative views of the rest of the field:

1) Yesterday & Today only: https://invst.ly/avacj

2) From minimum G sp, 27th December (dotted line is yesterday’s close): https://invst.ly/avacs

3) From peak oil, 3rd October: https://invst.ly/avad4

Nice one JL - hope this works out well for you.

So the GKP thing seemed to go as expected. Hmmm.

G meanwhile lost a bit more than expected but the market seems to be taking a general pasting. The trend lines are remakarbly intact: https://invst.ly/av7j8

So, a bit painful maybe, but could be quite excellent from here, especially for those who took advantage and topped up.