Member Info for Boyobach

From website:
Genel intends to announce an interim dividend of 5¢ per share as part of the 2019 half-year results, which are scheduled for 6 August 2019.

G and others v Brent End of Week

A 15 minute trace of G (red) v Brent (LCO ‘front month future’ light green and XBR ‘spot’ dark green) from 8am Monday to today’s LSE close: https://invst.ly/b0lft

OP was approx 2.5% down over the period
G was approx 4.5% down over the period, so losing ground v OP over the week but with most of the damage this morning according to the chart.

At the end of the session Gsp (p) was approximately = 2.7 x OP $/bbl (very weak)

Long term G & Others v Brent (LCO & XBR) from Peak OP October 2018: https://invst.ly/b0le4

G chart with notable trends, 6 months: https://invst.ly/b0lfi

OP Chart: https://invst.ly/b0ldz

G’s fall in sp appears to have occurred in two separate phases. I guess the first, from the 1st to the 22nd of May, could have been due to a seller - would Majidie explain that one? Regrettably, the first phase, which showed signs of levelling out at 204p was immediately followed by the sudden fall in OP (about 18% over the entire period) which also unfortunately coincided with the ex-div discount. So G was pretty much set-up for a dramatic overall drop (about 26% in total) given those three factors.

It’s worth noting that DNO’s sp has been hit as badly as G over the same period (with no mitigating ex-div component) and GKP is down by 16%. For some reason GKP did buck the trend against OP (13th-22nd May), were it not for that rally it would have suffered similarly to the other two. https://invst.ly/b0ges

Thanks Whitehat, Ocelot -

I'm not totally 'down' on G - far from it - in fact I've recently made comments that attempt to explain that it's holding its own in comparison to Kurdish and other producers. We'll see this more clearly once GKP has gone ex-div, although I do have reservations about making the direct comparison - GKP is, in my view, a different model and offers a different investor prospect. I'm actually not as worried as you are, Whitehat, about the ME situation. There is no doubt that tensions in the area are a permanent feature but I have little doubt that the focus of any Iranian activity will be directed towards US and KSA interests around Hormuz rather than the KRI. It's not hard to see why the US is able to call upon its ME friends to keep OP from rising too much. The remnants of ISIS do pose a threat where certain religious groups are disadvantaged and sidelined but I don't believe that the KRI offers them fertile ground and Iraqi politicians seem to be learning from past mistakes. Let's hope so.

Hi Ammu -
Tonight's post was pure fact. If you don't like it then that's tough (and rather sad). If you saw an error or misleading element then you could have mentioned it - but you didn't, speaks volumes. F words and insults usually betray a lack of cogent argument.
I'm only interested in fundamentals if they can and do deliver market results. So you are correct about one issue - I don't give an f about fundamentals that don't eventually deliver an improvement in sp. As far as being 'sad' - you are right about that too - I'm sad about being a very long term holder of a company that has so far failed to deliver shareholder value for eight years - so don't even attempt the 'need to be patient' argument - which always surfaces around here when G is under performing in the market. Did you hold this at £10?
In my view G is relatively 'OK' but the market is unconvinced.about the long term Whilst it could make reasonable progress, it may not be the quick money spinner that some people think.
Good luck and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-0u3NM8rd1U
- no need to reply, you are filtered off my very short list of poor commentators (there's only you actually) on this board.

I recommend anyone who's interested with i-player watches Beyond 100 Days (tonight's edition) on BBC News channel. The complete statement and analysis from a US expert on the subject.

A 15 minute trace of G (red) v Brent (LCO ‘front month future’ light green and XBR ‘spot’ dark green) from 8am Monday to today’s LSE close: https://invst.ly/b08au
OP was approx 3% down over the period.
G was approx 4.5% down over the period.
At the end of the session Gsp (p) was approximately = 2.7 x OP $/bbl (very weak).
Long term G & Others v Brent (LCO & XBR) from Peak OP October 2018:
https://invst.ly/b088n
G chart with notable trends, 12 months: https://invst.ly/b088w

sorry bunks - thought you meant ex-div was part of the low sp, which it may still be to the extent of two or three pence.

Hi Leem. I know this has been a huge frustration for you and for most of us here. I hope you don't get to see 152p although OP only needs to drop to $56 for that level to become much more likely. I've had a closer look at the OP chart and refined it a bit - https://invst.ly/b03j3 A lot does depend on OP (Brent LCO) remaining above $59.

There has obviously been some over-expectation here regarding G, however the market is rarely wrong and usually difficult to beat. G is certainly generating cash but it's insufficient to quickly replace the war-chest that G once boasted. The mar-cap today must be around 20% of what it once was and G's ambitions - particularly in regard to the gas resources - are necessarily more modest than many of us had originally hoped.

I don’t think the ex-div discount is much of a factor now, bunks, as G’s sp has got back to near 2.8 x $/bb - ie where it was before.

OP is the most immediate issue https://invst.ly/b01pf , followed by the market’s view of G - which is frankly not encouraging. Predicting OP is a mug’s game, we could be lucky to average $65 this year and a corresponding sp of 200p

Currency typo:

Meanwhile, the market is currently pricing G as it did when Brent was $54 in late December, so around 20p shy of the worst it should be right now .

It’s good to know the Saudis have got the hang of how to control OP and keep it around their desired $70. Meanwhile, the market is currently pricing G as it did when Brent was $54 in late December, so around $20 shy of the worst it should be right now . There’s not much else to say - most of the other runners in a similar pickle, although RDS actually gaining value since oil was around $75 recently. That’s a quality oil share for you!

https://invst.ly/a-vpp

Gsp (p) currently = 2.74 x OP $/bbl

I guess OP weakness will put the kibosh on that, however.

The last three days do signal the potential for a recovery - albeit rather tenuous at this stage given yesterday's pull back after the open. However, the highest close in six days and a mildly improving ratio to OP are all positives. We need to get to 189 at current levels of OP ($63) before we can start to contemplate any meaningful recovery . All the usual runners and riders, except for RDS, suffered in May but none as much as G in the week leading up to the 23rd and the plunge in OP plus ex-div. A disappointing month for all - not least G: https://invst.ly/a-l1k

G’s sp has grown weaker as a multiple of OP since Brent fell back in late May so that the long term trend for G (red) from the end of 2018 has now become even flatter than that for Brent (green) here: https://invst.ly/a-e5c

In other words, G is making no obvious long-term progress in terms of company value and the underlying mar cap appears to be dominated by the price of oil rather than other factors such as cash accumulation or prospective growth.

When GKP (blue) is overlaid https://invst.ly/a-e60
it becomes apparent that the two still remain broadly similar, although GKP has performed rather better over the last month (always bearing in mind that GKP’s future seems to be primarily about cash generation from one long term asset and that the two businesses have offered rather different investor propositions up to now: GKP as an income investment and G as a growth investment).

As G’s prospects have become less about its large gas assets - originally to be developed off the back of revenue generated by Taq Taq but which now seem beyond the company’s reach - stellar performance does not seem quite as possible as it was even a year ago. The market has previously overestimated G’s immediate prospects a few times over the years and companies that disappoint as G has done can’t expect to charm investors repeatedly. There seemed to be a window of opportunity last year but that seems to have faded. Certainly G is cash generative but perhaps on a rather more modest scale than previously anticipated. The market seems to think so.

A brief word about OP - The price often quoted in the media for Brent is an LCO ‘front-month’ futures price which appears, for example, to be used in the Malcy blog and Bloomberg etc. These recently appeared to be up to $1.5 adrift from a crude spot price like OANDA or XBR - the differential being greater when the front month rolls over to a more distant date and when the price is volatile. The suddenly greater differential that occurs at rollover can exaggerate OP volatility and perhaps influence a sensitive sp like G disproportionately.
Here’s a recent comparison which shows a large differential that appeared on 15 minute price charts on the 26th of May (LCO is green, XBR is dark blue): https://invst.ly/a-ajv . To make matters worse, market close and open times for various OP sources can be different and ‘live closing prices’ are sometimes ‘adjusted’ the following day. LCO is currently running about $1 below XBR: https://invst.ly/a-asn .

So, although G will tend to track OP over a period, there are many reasons why it’s not always useful to compare their respective movements on an hourly or even daily basis. Much better to take a longer term view of G’s relationship to OP.

Back from ever-gorgeous Nice in delightful Provence. The coastal scenery and beaches do not match those of SW Wales but the climate and cuisine do compensate! Thanks for the ‘bon voyage’ messages and casino advice - I would not enter such a place without JL as a mentor and guide.

Whilst away, I abstained from this BB except to submit my rather optimistic 184 Friday Club entry and to check on the weekend comments. I see that nothing much has changed: with Brent (OANDA/LCO between them around $63) and G rooted at 173. At first sight GKP did better than G today but, in actual fact, it was merely playing catch-up from Friday.
https://invst.ly/a-75e

Was there a ‘shorter’ at work today? G dropped by less than a pro-rata amount to the drop in OP- so it doesn’t really look like it does it? Meanwhile, DNO is similarly down since late April and PMO is faring rather worse than either over the same period.

G sp (p) is still less than 2.8 x OP ($/bbl). Until it reaches over 3 x OP there’s really no sign of progress here.
It’s beginning to look like G’s sp peak for 2019 could already have been seen as KSA seem determined to keep the US ‘on side’ by ramping production in May to limit OP and with ‘driving season’ demand starting to weaken once we are past mid-summer.

It’s also worth repeating that RDSb has outperformed all the others here (PMO being the most dire) since OP peaked last October. Some do say ‘never sell Shell’ and it’s the closest I believe I have seen to a ‘forever share’. https://invst.ly/a-7d4 .

So not much to be cheerful about yet.

OscarFoxtrot 150
Withoutt 183
Boyobach 184
Hasiba 185
Klassic 186
primesymian 188
Bunks 190
Ammu123 191
Dhc 194
Stockbuster 195
Broadland 197
Hawkey 200
scoredagainsteps 203
ocelot 205

For Wednesday 5th June.

Well I’m off to the Cote d’Azur for a complete break from Genel plus other stuff.
In the meantime, charts may help spotting support and resistance but G is mostly at the mercy of OP. Just keep the number 3 in mind!

Whatever the OP, 3 x $/bbl = average G sp on an average day these last ten months (ie since the £3 day). So if G was just keeping head above water it should be around 190p as I type

Above 3 is positive, 3.5 is this year’s best, but will have to get past 4 for G to be making proper headway - whatever the OP.
Below 3 and you know G is weaker than average, 2.8 should be rock bottom with ex-div taking it slightly lower to 2.7 for a short while.

By all means look out for manipulation and big sellers - but G may be more consistent than you think, invariably rising in anticipation of announcements and falling back after them.

Back in a week or so. Au revoir and GLA

It's alleged that 'Somebody has manipulated the sp and specifically gone out their way to overdo it on Ex-divi date and on the announcement of the conversion price'. What is the evidence for that?
Here's a 15' view covering the whole period to help anyone who is able to point the anomalous price movements out to me:
https://invst.ly/aymv8

Sounds like tosh, to me.
Hydrogen, meanwhile, has nailed a specific and significant factor - especially as G's sp has progressively moved lower in relation to OP than at any recent time.

For Tuesday 4th June.

Today’s sp ended around 172p, which is 2.74 x the relevant $/barrel Brent crude price of about $63. This ratio neatly wraps up currency conversions etc. and provides a quick indication of G’s relative strength in relation to the core product it produces - which is presently as weak as it has been this year (as bunks has already pointed out). Regulars here know that this ratio generally varies in the range 2.8-3.5, which would broadly set the expected sp limits at $63 Brent between 175 and a currently very optimistic 220p.

G’s sp only really becomes interesting if/when the ratio approaches or falls outside the 2.8-3.5 limits, which it has done recently due to the ex-div discount taking it below the normal minimum. However it’s now almost back in range and normal service can hopefully resume soon….maybe.

In even simpler terms: provided OP is above $60, G is currently a £2 share +/- 30p depending on the underlying OP weighted by market sentiment. Should OP fall, causing it to close below 170p, there has previously been evidence of support at around 165, 158 and 150. There probably won’t be much else to say about G for a good while. In the meantime, here’s the recent daily chart v Brent (crude, spot, NSE)

https://invst.ly/ayl4w

Next, against GKP, Brent and DNO on a 15’ chart from ex-div where GKP seemed to buck the trend on the 30th May for some reason (possibly rumours of a share buy back that I’ve since been unable to verify) :

https://invst.ly/aylhc

And the rest of the field from peak oil, where G appears to be slowly but steadily losing ground to GKP since mid March:

https://invst.ly/ayl5h