Member Info for Boyobach

Jeez JL

H and Cashless probably correct about avoiding alcohol, fatty food, red meat, liver, chicken and shell fish. But it sounds like hell. You won't find much has changed in Porthcawl - good location, poor hotels (although there seem to be some up market B&Bs there nowadays). Hope the pain eases soon.

Nasty thing, gout JL - painful, I'm told. Hope it passes swiftly. Best stay off the Port - or is that an old wive's tale? I hope you're not staying in Porthcawl -'cos there's porthcawl there in the way of decent hotels in my experience. I had to stay there a few months back for a function - dire choice along the esplanade.

Prime 180
Withoutt 183
Boyobach 192
Hawkey 200
Broadband 205

OP may be up but G has made little progress v Brent over the week, especially after a 3p drop to 177p for the close. Even 180p v $65 OP was not good: The sp remains well below par having averaged above 210p at this sort of OP in March (see the 6 month G chart below) . Here’s the 15 minute Brent v Genel since last Friday’s close: https://invst.ly/b2n6a

Except for G’s sp being kept up by 170p support on Tuesday as OP fell and followed by an over-done rise and correction on Wednesday, G actually tracked OP very tightly over the week. At the end of the session Brent was up by nearly 5% over the week and G was up just over 4%, so Gsp (p) was still under 2.8 x OP $/bbl (virtually the same as last Friday)

Here’s G and the others since the OP Peak near $75 of April: https://invst.ly/b2n7z
And G and the others v Brent (since October): https://invst.ly/b2n6u

It’s sobering to note that RDS has been by far the best of the bunch - and the safest play - since October. PMO has been the biggest roller coaster of this group, whilst. GKP has shone more recently - maybe the Blackrock effect? - powering ahead today despite the 2020 production delay, with G about middle of this ‘risky league’ along with DNO. Not a stand-out performance.

Note how much time G (red) has recently spent below the Brent (green) line, and that this weakness was established immediately prior to ex-div and the collapse in OP, when others were peaking around 17th May.

This G chart with trends, 6 months: https://invst.ly/b2n7g shows just how much G has to do to get back to the level it achieved prior to the 2018 Results day in March.

Finally, OP Chart over the last couple of years: https://invst.ly/b2naj

Or folks who bought at 166 -170 taking profits. It's a logical point for doing that. It could be a long haul back to 197, with 210 and above a pretty distant prospect at this rate because people will be taking profits near resistance points all along the way (that's basically why they are resistance points).

Yes- good golfing JL. Let's hope for 195 though!
Cheers.

No analysis or mumbo jumbo about this chart - just a plot of the numbers - 15 minute Brent v Genel since last Friday’s close: https://invst.ly/b2bzb

From this you can see that G and Brent are both about 3.5% up since Friday. However, as G was 2% up against Brent yesterday, this means that G actually lost ground v Brent today and made less progress than might have been expected.

This delay was an unfortunate but fairly predictable consequence of the need to break out from the downtrend mentioned in posts yesterday: https://invst.ly/b2c17

From here G should be free to recover more strongly against Brent - provided, of course, that OP itself continues to be firm.

The others since the OP Peak near $75 of April: https://invst.ly/b2c2y G not dissimilar to DNO performance-wise.

Brent. may be up - near 2% - but G isn't responding proportionately yet. At OP of $64 G should be 180p minimum to catch up with its pre-div lows.

As ever stock picking is key and nobody but nobody has a golden ball that guarantees success in picking winners. That's where doing your own research and not following tipsters etc.., might keep you on the right path.....

Hear hear JL! Sound common sense as always.

I do like to check 'form' though. Charts are my historic indicators (NOT predictors). I'm not actually a chartist - but trends and history help me judge the balance of probabilities. Each to his/her own. The breakout thing today never came close to being tested let alone back-tested (I guess that's the same as 'kissing the line? )as far as I could see btw. https://invst.ly/b1zxy . ATB one and all (whatever mystic numbers or witchcraft you follow). My advice: Always read JL - (genuine comment - not sarcasm )

For those who are concerned about why G does not always track OP as they expect it to, this 15 minute per tick trace of Brent (LCO) v G (red) from the previous Friday’s close should give you all you need to help separate and analyse genuine shifts in company value from adjustments due to the price of the underlying commodity:
https://invst.ly/b1yzu

From this you can see that G has improved v Brent by about 2% since Friday also:

1)The ‘out of hours’ OP activity that happens whilst G is not traded (flat line periods for G) but which can influence early trades the following day.

2) Any incremental or step changes that occur independently of underlying OP influences.

3) Gain/Fall of each from previous week’s close as a % from the grey 0% Line.

I don't know about fly, bunks. I'd just be glad to see the price stabilise at pre-May multiples of Bent.
OP seems to have levelled out at around $62 for over two weeks now, which, if it continues, should give G a chance to regain its 'normal low' v Brent of around 185 (3x 62 = 186). Three is the key for me.
Once it gets back to this 'normal low' level it might fly - maybe up to 217 tops (3.5 x 62).
All totally dependent on OP rather than company news and assuming oil sticks roughly where it is.

The Tories are now stuffed JL. I agree there isn’t much about Rory to inspire people but then the truth is often pretty unpalatable. There isn’t time to achieve much by Oct 31st but the withdrawal deal is ready to go and a runner if two things can be achieved: Remove the non-binding stuff that TM got bogged down with and guarantee a frictionless (technology based) import/export control for NI.
The EU will wave two fingers at Boris, watch the shambles his govt will lead us into and then screw us over when we try to rejoin/do a deal further down the track. Boris will win and we will lose - but at least the pain will stop….. for a while. He might even win a GE and save us from Corbynism. The silent majority will forever be disenfranchised by their silence.

There's a glimmer of hope to back JL's observations up today.
https://invst.ly/b1rui
Maybe G will break out from the recent down trend....

Taking a closer look at OP, firstly a five year view:
https://invst.ly/b1o4m
Then the year to date:
https://invst.ly/b1o6f
There’s plainly something of a sweet spot currently around $62 +/- $2, progressively rising at about $4/year. For the last two years OP has spent most of the time above this moving level

A steady performance from G today, actually strengthening slightly v Brent throughout the week so far, as this 15 minute trace of G (red) v Brent (LCO ‘front month future’ light green and XBR ‘spot’ dark green) from Friday’s close shows: https://invst.ly/b1nb2

OP ended approx flat over the period
G was approx 2.5% up over the period.

At the end of the session Gsp (p) was approximately = 2.8 x OP $/bbl (weak but improving)

G and others v Brent (since October): https://invst.ly/b1n05 with G still needing to reassert its position back above the green Brent line.

G opened ‘up’ v Brent on Friday’s close https://invst.ly/b17wz and managed to hold onto the lead v OP despite dropping back in the first 15’ of trading and closing level with Friday’s price.

A 15 minute trace of G (red) v Brent (LCO ‘front month future’ light green and XBR ‘spot’ dark green) from 8am Monday to today’s LSE close: https://invst.ly/b1796

G chart with notable trends, 6 months: https://invst.ly/b17-j

JL: Here's the thing, would you rather a 7-10 div or the sp back to where it was in April, 207p from memory?

The thing is: G is down 19%, OP is down 14% over that period. OP is the main factor here PLUS the weakness previously identified and presumed to be due to selling by one of the ii s. The market is the market and OP is OP - G is not alone in having a tough time for the last couple of months. The divi was worth about 8p of the drop (which for holders is nulled-out by the cash payment) and that will evaporate over a short period. The big deal here is what G might do with the cash it is accumulating.

Dodger777 165
Klassic 173
Boyobach 175
Bunks 176
Hasiba 178
IANAA 180
Prime 182
Withoutt 183
DHC 188
Broadland 190
Stockbuster 195
ocelot 200
Hawkey 205

Klassic 173
Boyobach 175
Hasiba 178
IANAA 180
Prime 182
Withoutt 183
DHC 188
Broadland 190
Stockbuster 195
ocelot 200
Hawkey 205

I can't disagree Hawkey and I think $65 is a prudent expectation of average OP for remainder of, and indeed the whole of, the year. On recent performance that can produce a G sp of between 175 and 230p depending on how the wind is blowing. In the meantime OP is right on the centre line here: https://invst.ly/b0y57 and could go either way, with anything between $55 and $75 looking possible in the near term. My Friday Club punt for next week will probably be based on a mild improvement in the current OP.

GLA