Member Info for Boyobach

Despite firm OP, G, DNO & GKP all down & remarkably in sync so far this week (Tuesday late morning)... https://invst.ly/b9w1n

As we are just a day into the week here's six day's worth of the 15' tick G v Brent with GKP and DNO to provide some fair comparisons. GKP's buyback going steady it seems. https://invst.ly/b9o1m . G's sp ratio to Brent is just on 3 - my benchmark for 'average' performance. That means it has been much worse and, equally it has been much better - 3.2 to 3.4 is the kind of range we saw earlier in the year and that's what you need to have any chance of getting near 230p.

In my previous post, I didn’t mention GKP’s buyback scheme which started last week whilst I was away and which I was unaware of until today. A more phased and less cash and time-constrained affair than G’s initial one, it appears. The impact should consequently be more measured over time and GKP’s recent weakness v OP (partially due to ex-div) should be quickly balanced out, with GKP progressively looking stronger over coming weeks. A more level playing field viz a viz OP, perhaps, although, as I always say, the two companies offer quite different investor propositions.

Dodger 205
Boyo 207
Rangor 208
JoeBass 209
Broadland 210
Hasiba 212
Stockbuster 213
Withoutt 214
Prime 215
Leem 220
Hawkey 222

G managed to maintain its level with respect to Brent last week, whilst GKP strengthened somewhat: https://invst.ly/b96kl
For GKP this was something of a ‘catch-up’, as both GKP and DNO have both lost ground against Brent over the last couple of weeks, whilst G gained over the same period, benefiting markedly from the buybacks, as can plainly be seen here:
https://invst.ly/b96k6

But how are they really doing against Brent over the long term? The comparison chart from last October’s peak in OP still seems to be a reliable guide as far as I’m concerned and it paints a fairly unexciting picture: Brent was at the same price as today ($67) on 16th November at which point G was 211p and GKP was 191p. G’s sp ratio to $Brent was 3.15 at that point but is just 3.04 now.
https://invst.ly/b96o3

Whilst this might seem more encouraging for GKP holders, it appears to be because GKP suffered disproportionately more than G as the OP fell. They both went on to reach much higher sps in March for the same OP.

So, basically, there doesn’t seem to be any real evidence of a significant shift in the respective market valuations of the two companies since last autumn, with G’s relative position potentially much lower and only recently restored thanks to the buyback scheme.

As the last trading hour approaches, I can see that G has held on to the essential 3x OP $ ratio that should mark its minimum sp. So $67 results in an sp of at least 201. Prior to the buybacks G was doing significantly worse. So there hasn't been much slippage in the pastweek.

Toy tablet ffs...

Well a crude chart to show G's progress since the day prior to the buybacks. Best I can do on you tablet...
https://invst.ly/b8g8a
Up? Undoubtedly, but strong? Hardly. Inexplicable? I'm not a G ramper and ordinarily accept that the market has its reasons. Looking at GKP & DNO you'd have to conclude that it's not just G either...

Yes, Maastricht was the bridge too far and the point of no return. It's all too late now - UK finished either way. BoJo is a wannabe hero, not gifted intellectually and his plan already scuppered by his failure to grasp WTO rules. Jezza C may well get a free ride to power on the back of consistent Tory incompetence. It'll be 'cap in hand' time for the UK soon, whereas we should have been power brokers in the EU we'll soon be free but sidelined and impotent. Immigrant skills & talent won't be attracted here and we'll be increasingly reliant on home grown labour and expertise. Good luck with that. An ignominious end ironically engineered from start to finish by the Tories.

No charts from me this week H, travelling light with little Kindle. G should be at least 204-210p with Brent at near $68, based on average performance and 230 when it is motoring.

GKP or G should not be an 'either or' choice - They offer different propositions and there are arguments for holding either or both. Meanwhile, GKP appears to remain down by about 5% whilst G has gained 10% since before the buyback - pointing to a tangible benefit of the buyback. Regretably, though, G has weakened against OP and is back down to 2.9 x $OP and hasn't responded as it should have to this week's improvement in Brent. So pretty disappointing since Friday.

https://invst.ly/b7oxd

Given the buyback rules that Hawkey pointed out, there was probably no more that they could have put in, bunks . G still ahead of others as a result of buybacks : https://invst.ly/b7oxd.

Just remember that, according to Investopedia: Companies typically refrain from releasing price-sensitive statements or news during the close period. This differs from a quiet period where companies must embargo any public promotions before an initial public offering is made. Companies may choose to withhold making statements during the close period to prevent the company’s shares from being affected ahead of the release of the expected financial results.I

Joe pipped me to my first choice of number for next week - good luck Joe. I'm off to Italy for a week for a break from charts you'll be glad to hear. GLA

Boyo 193
Joebass 195
Prime 200
Hasiba 204
Bunks 206
Dodger777 210
Withoutt 214

Hi JL. I pretty much agree with your comments except two specific points:
'The Co hoped to purchase up to 10% of the outstanding amounting to c. 27.924 shares .....'
I don't think they hoped to do that at all, I think that figure was a maximum permissible rather than a target - as stated in the RNS.
I believe that the buy-back process probably achieved its quite modest purpose and, if it didn't, the company has authority to repeat the process if desired.
The second point is that G was not in a down-trend at the start of the buybacks. It had actually been in an upward short term trend since 14th June, rising from 166p to 177, and the longer underlying trend this year has been upward (in the sense that G has not revisited 150p). I agree there's a fair chance of some weakness next week, especially if OP drops, but the buyback essentially rode a trend that had already started. Whether the 190's will hold remains to be seen but they should, provided OP stays above $61.5 - we'll soon find out. Hope the gout has retreated! ATB
https://invst.ly/b6se8

Well done Dodger.

End of the buyback and something of an anticlimax for those looking for a 200+ sp, with the sp having stayed at nominally 197p most of the week. However, quite an improvement in terms of G’s recent sp performance, now stronger against OP and regaining its position v OP with its peers. Will it last now the buy back drip feed has been removed ? Maybe, but it wasn’t encouraging to see the day finish with a doji and the sp a tad down against rising OP.

G v Brent 15’ chart from start of buyback: : https://invst.ly/b6psq

G progress this year v Brent, looking healthier: https://invst.ly/b6ppg

And a similar view v Peak Brent (October $75): https://invst.ly/b6pqs

G and the others, also from Peak OP in October: https://invst.ly/b6po-

Gsp/OP$ ratio dropped slightly to 3.05 at the close indicating a tendency to weaken but would still equate to an sp of about 230p for an OP of $75.

H : Without Genel being propped up this last week or so I wonder where we would be?
Boyo: Still can't be Rsed with the charts eh H? According to tonight's first chart, the answer is 5% down on the 24/6 closing price (177p), ie 168p just like GKP and DNO over the same period. So, yes, we are 30p up on what might have been. Good old G eh?

I can't fault your logic about selling a few tomorrow H, but mind how you go - the sellers might come out from under their rocks in bigger numbers tomorrow as the clock ticks towards cutoff - which may come early given the rule you highlighted today. It's why I sold a trading tranche today rather than wait. Because the buyback process has kept the price range really tight, I was going to set a 198 limit order but when I logged in to my account I got an offer just a fraction of a p over so I sold immediately. I hope the sp doesn't drop back but hope alone doesn't earn bucks.
I'll be happy to trade the next wave even if the price has gone up, as long as I can spot and buy at the bottom. This is quite tricky with G because of the instability of OP, upon which it is sooo dependent! The chart can look great but then the EIA figures or a Trump tweet can kick the table over.

My thanks to H for pointing out the rule limiting buyback volume - I guess most of us would have curtailed our ambitions for the sp had we been aware of it. The outcome, as we reach the last day is, however, satisfactory as far as I’m concerned, even if it didn’t quite hit my trading target (which was 206). I consequently sold off a smaller tranche - which I’ll buy back if there’s any fall next week, although I doubt the opportunity will arise given the way this has run.

G v Brent 15’ chart from start of buyback: : https://invst.ly/b6eec

G progress this year v Brent, looking healthier: https://invst.ly/b6ef5

G and the others from Peak OP in October: https://invst.ly/b6ej5

G is now back to ‘respectable’ in the sense that it needs to be above the Brent line in order to be matching or doing better than it was when Brent hit $85, the bigger the gap the better obviously.

Gsp/OP$ ratio is currently around 3.1 (about average for this year) and would equate to an sp of 230p for an OP of $75.

Nothing on Twitter, H, I don't do Facebook as a matter of principle, what was the result?