Member Info for Boyobach

Interesting point H. I was unaware of that limitation. I wonder what period the average is taken over.
The result for G appears to have been good, even though most of us would like to have seen a tad higher price achieved. Let's hope it is fairly stable.

Agreed Hydrogen.
This has demonstrated why G is so volatile and is why the fundamentals that underpin the value are so important for LT holders - as they should be for any investor. I have come to realise over the years that G is not a 'buy and leave' share - which I naively hoped it to be six or seven years ago, it is hard work. Charts - as JL will readily confirm - do not predict events, like the big Taq Taq downgrade a while back, but they do help me navigate the choppy waters of the market. So far the last twelve months have actually been good for me in cash terms, they would have been a disaster if I'd just sat on my hands. ATB

In the long term context, the buyback programme has achieved a significant improvement at a surprisingly low cost, with G now placed on the highlighted red trend line here:
https://invst.ly/b6b6i

When Brent is added to the chart, the rationale for the current price - as ‘a value accretive use of [G’s] cash resources’ is even more evident:
https://invst.ly/b6b9k

I’ve been happy to sell a tranche of my trading shares today - it’s not often you can make 12.5% in less than a fortnight.

DHC - According to the RNS, the buyback period was specifically up to and including 5th July, no mention of a temporary cessation at that point:
Genel Energy plc ('Genel' or 'the Company') will commence a share buy-back programme of up to $10 million in the period up to and including 5 July 2019 (being the last day of trading prior to the Company entering a close period ahead of its half-year results).

If increase in Mar Cap v the cost of the buyback is considered, also remembering that the acquired shares do not attract dividend, it has certainly been a prudent exercise in acquiring undervalued shares and restoring G's relative position with peers.
10 % up (whilst the likes of DNO & GKP are 5% down) is undoubtedly good. A pretty straightforward technique too if the intention was simply to buy up to +20p on the initial price: open the buying at +10p and inch upwards to the target.
However, I had hoped to see 200+, ideally 206 , achieved and I think that would have been possible within the budget although G might then have been exposed to accusations of ramping the price up for the benefit of directors.
So, on balance, a good exercise.

Yes indeed JL - the least number of shares this week I think. How do you read that? I guess there are two possibilities:
1) Mission pretty much accomplished at possibly 197p (at current OP)
2) A final thrust in the last two days (if you can call it that) to 200+ (around a 6p increment maybe based on previous form).
The volumes traded on the way down look interesting: in theory it should not take much to push the sp back above 203.

I usually provide a 15’ chart giving G for the week v OP but, as we approach the last two days of buyback, I think it’s more useful to show the entire buyback period to date. GKP and DNO are included to indicate how G might have moved if the buyback had not been happening. It is easy to see that G appears to have undergone around a 16% improvement relative to the other KRI companies. It’s also interesting to see that, although OP is only down by 1% over the period, GKP and DNO are both disproportionately down 4% : https://invst.ly/b61q7

An hourly chart shows a different view of progress in the context of recent trends:https://invst.ly/b61pv

The volume position is interesting (lower chart) - perhaps suggesting that there could be a lot to mop-up as the deadline approaches or if the price moves up to 200+. Notice, too, how tightly the trading range around 197 has remained, disturbed only by significant OP moves and the ‘non buyback’ purchase, pointed out by H and Bunks, yesterday at 8am.

At the current rate of spend there may well be around 66% of the available budget left at the end of the period. Long term shareholders may have mixed feelings if the full amount is not used: for whilst we’d like to see the sp higher we also want to see it sustainable and less prone to unreasonable lows, we also want to see the company use funds wisely. Squandering cash and merely achieving a temporary spike in sp would only benefit those wanting a quick profit (Boyo Trading) at the expense of core investors (Boyo LT). Yes - either will suit me but ultimately I’m looking for quality here.

G and the others from OP most recent peak in April: https://invst.ly/b61or
Gsp/OP$ ratio is currently around 3.1 (about average for this year)

The updated chart is reassuring, no explanation needed:
https://invst.ly/b5-4p

Essential character missing in last post:
I find it interesting that the sp/OP ratio is currently 3 + ...

The ratio is actually about 3.1 using LCO Future for the Brent price, and a little lower, 3.07, using OANDA

The active rise in sp caused by the buyback process may well have ceased on Friday as gains since then appear to have been OP related, with buybacks simply limiting the damage as OP has retreated:
https://invst.ly/b5y44
They supported the 197 level against a significant fall in OP and today appear to be buying at around 193 following further OP weakness.
Bearing in mind that they are supposed to be acquiring when the shares represent value to the company, I find it interesting that the sp/OP ratio is currently 3. This is ‘middle of the range’ as far as this year’s sp performance. So perhaps it isn’t far off G’s own estimation of the weakest ratio to OP that they would ordinarily expect to see.
If they have achieved their target in terms of acquiring shares they deem to be undervalued, then there would be no reason to spend the allocated budget or to push the sp up any further.

They cannot extend it immediately because of the close period. They may resume later, of course.

yes Hawkey- about 3.97 currently according to Google.

Even if OP doesn't recover in time, I'm still hoping we might see G recover to 203+ by Friday's close:
https://invst.ly/b5q32

A pity that OP didn’t play ball today because $67 Brent x3.09 = 207p which would have made a nicer close than $63.7 x3.09 = 196.8p. But the important thing is that the Buyback plan continues and the G v Brent ratio, if not the raw sp itself, continues to strengthen. Let’s also hope that Brent will continue to stay above $61 and the long term trend line here: https://invst.ly/b5p34

As I’ve discussed on another thread, evidence of the buyback effect is plainly seen here on G v Brent for the week, where GKP appears as a ‘non-buyback’ comparison to demonstrate how G might have moved (15’ ticks): https://invst.ly/b5p2t

Here’s how G is performing against Brent since Peak-OP in October: https://invst.ly/b5p1l

And all the rest from Peak OP in October: https://invst.ly/b5p5p

Agreed Bunks, G's sp (p) ratio to $/bbl is now slightly better than 3x, I reckon that's the strongest we've seen since early May.

Hi Ocelot - perhaps I didn't explain the point I was making very well -
Irrespective of closing prices, G made it to 198+ yesterday whilst Brent was around 67.4, today when Brent was nearly $2 lower ($1.8), G had fallen by only 2p - ordinarily it would have been 5-6p down, so something is maintaining the price - presumably the buyback. Since then, OP has continued to tank but G has remained pretty steady, whereas ordinarily it would react like GKP in this chart of the three price lines: https://invst.ly/b5o0e

It will be interesting, too, to see how the next and closing three days proceed for those who hoped to sell into the buyback at higher prices but are squeezed as the clock begins to run out. The sp is already 20p (11%) up on the price of 177 immediately prior to the buyback at a similar OP https://invst.ly/b5l7a so there's probably no need to ratchet the price much further to tease out more sellers.

Interesting Hydrogen.

Wasn't yesterday's best OANDA near $67.5 ? I was looking at best yesterday to lowest this morning - admittedly using XBR Spot.

Well I'm not convinced about the £50k. So far there have been quite deliberate upward steps followed by a controlled fall-back. If the £50k wasn't part of that process then it's a helluva helpful coincidence. They are swimming against the OP tide today: $2 down on yesterday's best OP might have knocked 6p off G's 198 without some support going on....