Member Info for Boyobach

For Wednesday 22nd May

So what happened on May 11th and in the few trading days since since?

This seems to be the date upon which G’s sp started to go significantly off the rails and fellow KRI producer GKP, by astonishing coincidence, has stormed ahead. Has there been a large switch of investment from one to the other, maybe starting around the 7th? If so, it looks like it could prove to have been a smart move with around 40p to be made if the timing continues to be right. Wow! Wish I’d thought of that (I didn’t) - makes the divi look like peanuts.

Apart from RDS, the other oil Co’s on the daily runners chart all hit a low on 9th May - as this chart for 2019 (from minimum G in December) shows. However, whilst G and the others all picked up on the 10th May (marked here: https://invst.ly/auxq6 ) and the rest then continued to rally, G sunk back on the 11th and has continued to go ever lower from then onwards. GKP, in contrast has moved ahead strongly. The switch back (if that is anyone’s intention) would logically occur on a GKP high and a G low - which could quite predictably fall on G’s ex-div day.

With 8p off for ex-div tomorrow plus any further fall in OP, 191 looks quite possible, whilst 195 will be relatively good. https://invst.ly/auy1g .

For Tuesday 21st May

Hydrogen has summed things up pretty well I reckon.

An interesting dip down and up for GKP over the last four trading days - I guess there was some company specific reason? That said, today’s rise for GKP removed the tight match with G - leaving the latter looking quite solitary, overall, since 9/5. https://invst.ly/aukkb

Maybe that differential will correct itself in the next few days, although the imminent ex-div is a complication, of course. It is quite perplexing for the sp to already be at the sort of level that might reasonably have been expected ex-div. It’ll consequently be a bonus if the sp is 203 or higher come ex-div. Let’s hope that it soon starts to make progress after that!

As many here point out, G’s fundamentals and prospects seem solid enough but the market remains indifferent to them at present. So, in the meantime, we just have to hope that OP either improves or at least stays firm and that the current ‘low v OP’ period ends in a similar pattern to previous ones (as circled here) https://invst.ly/aul2r

- which will at least cover my embarrassment at the lack of a bounce so far this week.

Leem1: Fundamentals, cash and production mean nothing to my charts - only market behaviour has any influence. They are purely a picture of investor behaviour over time.

For Tuesday 21st May

When OP reached its peak of $86 last October, G’s sp was 248p. That’s a ratio of 2.88. Today, with OP fairly constant at around $72, the ratio stands at 2.84 and also seems to be settling. The interesting point here is that the market appears to have concluded that G’s value in relation to OP has not changed significantly during the intervening months. And, judging by the daily comparison chart, it seems that it has reached much the same conclusion about GKP, where G,GKP and Brent (rebased to 3rd October) are pretty much as closely matched as possible. https://invst.ly/audch

Does this mean that, for now at any rate, G has reached a plateau in terms of sp? It certainly seems that the underlying price trend since last summer can be attributed directly to OP with market volatility of up to 35p riding on top. If G’s production remains fairly constant then there is no obvious reason for this situation to change very much, placing G fairly firmly in the 195-230p range subject to OP remaining between $65 and $75.

DHC - Yep -you missed the point. Never mind.

For Monday 20th May

G plainly didn’t come close to reaching 3x OP today - remaining stuck at its worst ratio to Brent of the year (2.84) and a score of 0/10 on the progress scale, effectively meaning that it is down on last summer’s performance by quite a margin. Until it reaches 3x OP - not a final target but simply a very modest and basic level which would score just 3/10 on the progress scale - it’s a waste of time thinking beyond that.
To put things in perspective, if OP fell to $50 then the sp would be at 142p. Meanwhile, later this week, ex div could now really test 197, after which there’s a slender ledge at 195 with 191 thereafter.

Here’s a view of the last few days and weeks v Brent (green): https://invst.ly/au70f

And here are the other runners, where RDS is currently showing the way that G should have gone: https://invst.ly/au6oj

I think you missed the point DHC. The ratios I gave are based on real performance this year - so measure G's performance on a daily basis. The ratio it achieves on a given day is simply an indication of how well it is doing

It will need to achieve 4x to get to the levels that it reached at its peak last year - but it's a long way off doing that and frankly seem unlikely to do so this year unless something remarkable happens.

With Brent at 73.2 this morning , it’s worth keeping the number 3 in mind as OP climbs (or falls): 3 x OP represents a fairly weak average sp that G should easily attain, whilst 3.5x OP probably represents the maximum it is likely to achieve. Anything below 3x is decidedly weak, with 2.84x the worst so far this year.

3 x 73 = 219
3.5 x 73 = 255
2.84 x 73 = 207

you can just add yourself by copy and pasting: like this:

scoredagainsteps 205
Boyobach 210
Broadland 225
Hawkey 230
Withoutt 232

Boyobach 210
Broadland 225
Hawkey 230
Withoutt 232

A tough week to call: ex dividend can be expected to knock up to 8p off but that could easily be offset by a strengthening price or, alternatively, act as a catalyst for the price to fall further. Recent history suggests that 197 should hold and if Friday’s closing price is a fair indication then 197 should indeed mark the worst that can be expected. What about the top end?

G’s progress in 2019 has plainly consisted of two main elements:

1) A rising trend that matches that of Brent - plainly visible in the usual daily chart, where the current red trend lines run closely in parallel to Brent’s green price line. With Brent currently levelling out, maybe not too much gain to be expected from this component of the sp.
2) A cyclic ‘wave’ of up to 35p riding on top of the trend.

https://invst.ly/atu9m

So, on that basis G could be anywhere between 197 and 230, although it generally does not go from low to high in the space of a week! However, on just average performance, G should be rising to at least 216 with Brent at 72p. So, allowing -8p for ex-div and and for a maximum of 218 otherwise, I'm pitching 210, which is at the top end of my expectations given the sluggish recovery on Friday.

Alll the members of this chart recently peaked on 23/April and here is how they’ve changed since:
Brent -3.22%
G -9.41%
GKP -9.74%
DNO -15.97%
PMO -5.36%
RDS 0%

Ah! I won't try to post a table again!

For Friday 17th May

https://invst.ly/atj05

A very disappointing week for G, dropping to its weakest level v Brent - which it seems to do on a cyclic basis. This time, however, plunging lower than previously in relative terms and with few firm signs yet of the usual recovery. Whether the cycles are the result of legitimate market ‘influences’ or due to fundamentals and news (or lack thereof), the sp is not demonstrably out of kilter with others, as explained below. As bunks has suggested, the price may well fall sub 200 upon ex-div - with 197 being the nearest potential support level based upon today’s closing price.

It all does add credence to the notion that the price is levelling out.

Here are the other runners and riders:

https://invst.ly/atj6x

G may have been very disappointing this week but there’s nothing especially odd about its performance relative to GKP or the others. Indeed there’s no real space between the two Kurdy companies in terms of raw sp. Their respective performance since GKP was resuscitated in 2016 is another matter, with GKP still appearing to lag by that metric. PMO has had a particularly good week, but seems rather more of a roller-coaster in terms of volatility and, because of a poor couple of months at the end of 2018, remains significantly behind G in terms of performance since peak OP in October - needing to be around 120p to match G’s level since then. I guess It may still be a good time to buy PMO if you think it will make it, although I'd recommend due diligence and caution. DNO is the one that’s taken a real hammering of late, whilst RDS is still basking in the sunshine of good results.

Alll the members of this chart recently peaked on 23/April and here is how they’ve changed since:

Brent GNL GKP DNO PMO RDSb

23/4/19 74.51 228.5 267 20.47 105.05 2541.5
17/5/19 72.11 207 241 17.2 99.42 2541.5
% change -3.22 -9.41 -9.74 -15.97 -5.36 0.00

Yes Whitehat - as bunks pointed out too. Perhaps it was, indeed, more to do with what wasn't said. In which case today's market reaction may well have snuffed out the anticipated bounce - that's really bad news.

I'm still not sure that the market should have expected much about the gas today - other than a reiteration of what has already been said. Today was not really the time for announcements about the current year - but maybe I'm being too 'old school'.

Hi Hawkey: Can I explain a bit more...? Ha! OK:

If you type Genel Energy into Google a side panel opens which currently shows its 'Parent Organisation' as Cukurova Group. Seems to be a throwback to before the Vallares RTO but, obviously, the company is of Turkish roots and it is perfectly understandable that that is where many staff would be based. Either there or Erbil to be fair. Wikipedia covers it pretty well if you need a bit more detail.

I have to agree bunks.
I'm not always too confident about the volume data I see on Investing.com. It can change if I update the screen and then later revert to the previous data. However, it's currently telling me that volume was almost negligible in the hour from 2pm when the damage was done. Maybe it was the US market influence? But that would not explain the very clear divergence between G and GKP - here's a 15' view of today: https://invst.ly/at78a

It's very odd and alarmingly, until an explanation emerges, you'd have to wonder if something in today's RNS/proceedings has spooked the market.

For Thursday 16th May

Today’s afternoon drop back to 207 is certainly disappointing - especially with Brent climbing to $73. It leaves G at rock bottom v OP just like it was yesterday:

G = 207.0 p
Brent = 73.0 $
G/Brent = 2.84 p/$
Score = 0/10

In fact the ratio of 2.84 is a new record low for this year. On quite modest performance of x3 the sp could rationally have been at 219p by today’s close.

Previously, as you can see off today’s updated chart, the bounce off a low v Brent has been more enthusiastic but it does usually spread over five days, so let’s hope this one makes more progress tomorrow. https://invst.ly/at5z8

Things certainly went off the rails after 14.00 - Maybe today’s RNS not so well received or was it something somebody said at the AGM? Here’s the hourly view:

https://invst.ly/at5-n

The rest of the field doing a bit better, it has to be said:
https://invst.ly/at5kw

PMO v G

Is PMO back to 120p yet?

No? Maybe discuss the merits of PMO v G when PMO catches up.

https://invst.ly/at5kw

Interesting over three quarters of Genel employees work in Ankara...

It's a subsidiary of Cukurova Group, which may have something to do with it?