Member Info for Boyobach

3-4$

should have added that, with Brent 3-4p up on November, G should be at at least 218 today.

For Thursday 9th May 2019:

An hour and a half still to go today but the die appears to have been cast regarding OP, so these numbers serve better than any chart:

G=208.00p
Brent=69.8$
G/Brent=2.98p/$
Score=2/10

G struggling to hold 210 despite nice buy timing from Mr Higgs.

Today’s view of G, daily ticks: https://invst.ly/aqvff

And the rest of the field, G by no means the weakest:: https://invst.ly/aqvfs

I'm with Hasiba, bunks - 24 hours is a long time in this market - especially if Donald does some more tweeting.

Yes indeed Ocelot. I used to follow Michael Knights - an expert commentator. Very pro KRG as I recall.
It's hard to imagine that this will significantly affect G, mainly because it's a dispute between ICG and Turkey and neither would benefit from a closure/suspension of the pipeline - ICG needs it to be functioning. So a ruling will be made and a deal will be done, I think. Could prove to be a mere technicality - things have moved on considerably since the KRG's budget disputes with al-Maliki

For Wednesday 8th May 2019:

As we approach the close, G is at 212p and OP at $70.7 - smack on the ratio of 3x and a score of 2/10, ie pretty weak with no immediate prospect of G shifting gear. If you are waiting for 230 again then I suggest you don’t hold your breath because OP and G are showing every sign of flattening out for the time being. Looks like there’ll probably be nothing much to see here for a while, unless OP drives it.

Today’s view of G, daily ticks: https://invst.ly/aqibi

I agree DHC - charts only reflect what the market thinks and how the sp might move in various scenarios.
And that's really all I'm interested in.
The FCF and other figures look promising but only become significant when they are reflected in the sp and, of course, the chart

Ok - OP under more downward pressure tonight. You guys, if you follow this thread, now know how this might affect G right?

If OP hits $69 we are quite likely into the 203-207 region - although maybe as low as 197. I have to agree with bunks about that because of the maths and chart support levels….
Worst case, historically, this year: G (p) = 2.86 x OP ($),
2.86 x 69 = 197.34

GLA!

Good to see the would be dictator challenged in Istanbul. He has been ruthless in subjugation of Kurds in their homeland.
G’s UK connection has always been important although its Turkish roots are the basis of the company, I am unaware of our key Turkish Director / shareholder political affiliations but I hope these play no negative part in the company’s activities. G must be genuinely pro-Kurdish people. If it emerged that G was exploiting (by political or tribal preference or patronage) rather than trading ethically on proper commercial terms with the KRI economy, I would sell immediately.

For Tuesday 7th May 2019:

With OP departing from this year’s rising price trend and potentially levelling out, it was hard to imagine G failing to do the same. So the immediate question was whether G would break through the lowest of the three red trend lines in this chart and it duly did this morning. Question now is whether it’ll continue to level out from here:

Here’s today’s wide view of G, daily ticks: https://invst.ly/aq2wi

and a closer view: https://invst.ly/aq2wz

You know the essentials: OP is shown as a green line, referenced to peak OP 3/10/18, and prices are approximate. Grey horizontals are potential support / resistance and red diagonals are trend lines. The sp may well turn on encountering either, breaking through them (ignoring intra-day and overnight spikes) can be a significant indication of progress or decline.

But whilst OP may be departing one trend it can remain within another, longer term and more loosely defined, track: https://invst.ly/aq2zc

Here are the usual runners and riders since oil peaked: https://invst.ly/aq2vc

The following table gives the Gsp/Brent ratio, a ‘strength’ score out of 10 based upon it, and the theoretical OP needed to propel G to 250p. Apologies if the formatting gets screwed up when posted:

At today's prices, G's sp is worth 3.01p per $ Brent
which gives it a 'boyo' strength score of 2/10 (down)
At this ratio, Brent must rise to 76.41$/bbl for the sp to reach 230p.

I guess the 'boyo score’ needs a brief explanation:
0/10 would represent the worst and 10/10 the best ratio achieved so far this year, the average to date is 4/10.
Whilst it’s in the range 4-6, sp should tend to move more proportionally to OP.
Below 4, it indicates that G is progressively weaker and cheaper compared to oil, with 0-1 potentially ‘buy’ or ‘emergency exit’ territory depending on your personal view of the circumstances and risk.
Over 6 and things should be picking up, especially if OP is also strong, with 9-10 indicating the sp may be at a maximum and possibly establishing a stronger relationship with OP than previously seen.
The score must either hit 10 sometime in the future or OP must be over $85 for G to be able to reach 300p.

Well I'm quite glad I pulled out of my 212 limit buy over the weekend. Put the cash into PFC instead this morning. Let's see if it drops to 203. I agree 197 is on the radar but it has to be quite well stressed to go there. Pretty much everything down today.

An interesting week this week. Unless G ups its game dramatically, FC entries of 230 are effectively a punt on OP reaching $75. Let's hope for either - but both would be good.

boyobach 215
IANAA 220
Rangor 222
Dhc 223
broadland 225
Bunks 227
Withoutt 230
PostieRemy 233
Hasiba 235
Ocelot 240
Hawkey 244

boyobach 215
broadland 225
Withoutt 230
Hasiba 235
Ocelot 240

Brent recovering to $71 today could well smooth things over. An interesting glitch in OP, which occurred mostly outside main market hours so may prove to be an insignificant anomaly.

With OP currently heading towards $69, the outlook for G is obviously becoming slightly gloomier, with the 203-213 range looking increasingly likely but hopefully supported at 210. Could be an interesting week.

OK Hawkey, because your post was headed ‘TT back to life’ it seemed as if you were questioning the big downgrade of 2015. From then onward the water contact issue was always going to leave everyone guessing with reserve assessments subject to revision and never likely to be reliable. Not so much ‘back to life’ as ‘life support continuing’.

This is background from late 2017:
https://www.edisongroup.com/positive-news-from-genels-taq-taq/

Well aware? well why say : 'I'm surprised that world class petro engineers could misread a field so bad......'

They didn't did they? at 200k b/d down to 29k b/d they did not misread the field did they?
You can't have it both ways mate, you can't say 'Well aware of that' (vastly reduced levels) and also knock the guys who assessed it correctly. That's taking WTFDIK to a whole new Trump-like level of absurd.

At the time Tony Wayward said they'd be pumping oil from TT for years to come - yeah right, but at about 15% of the expected rate.

Oh Hawkey!

29k BOPD? you do realise it was supposed to be 200k BOPD don't you? This is from an August 2015 article (link available if you want it):

The two main producing fields are Tawke and Taq Taq, combined output from which was averaging 230,000 b/d during the week ended August 9.

Norway's DNO plans to boost production at Tawke from the current rate of around 120,000 b/d to 200,000 b/d by the end of 2014.

Genel Energy, which has a 25% stake in Tawke, also plans to boost output at Taq Taq, in which it has a 44% working interest, to 200,000 b/d this year.

For Friday 3rd May 2019:

G is still within the rising trend it has enjoyed since the start of the year but for how much longer as Brent has clearly crashed out of it? : https://invst.ly/ap2ag

Here’s a closer view of the last few days: https://invst.ly/ap2ak

It’s been a decidedly average day with G’s sp back to the same poor level of performance v OP as it achieved around a month ago, ie G/SP ratio = 3.02. Unfortunately it has never regained the moderately ‘fair’ ratio of 3.32x it had prior to the FY results, which would have put the sp at over 230p today. So, in the absence of any production increases or other positive company news, it’s quite likely that G’s sp will continue at approximately 3.05 x Brent$ for the time being, with the immediate range being 210-222 and the consequence that it will move sideways out of the upward trend within the next week or so with 230 remaining its upper limit for a good while yet..

The other runners not doing any better, tbf:
https://invst.ly/ap2ds
PMO has been the best performer so far this year but, frankly, it needed to be after it’s autumn slide. RDS had a good week but is still below its best April performance. After a good three months, DNO has levelled out since early April with only OP keeping it lively. G & GKP are volatile and often out of sync with each other but there’s not much long-term difference between them.