Member Info for Boyobach

The problem quoting Brent OP, bunks, is that many sources use a generic 'front month' futures price - usually LCO . There's a snippet from Bloomberg below as an example. When OP is volatile the differences in quoted Futures OP can vary by $1.5 or more from the spot price - which I understand OANDA and XBR represent. As the contract dates get nearer the disparities get smaller until there's a sudden large difference when LCO is rolled to the next contract month (as happened last week). I do wonder if these sudden 'technical' shifts in quoted prices cause some of the anomalies we sometimes see with G's sp

Here's today's Bloomberg extract:
'Brent for August settlement dropped 35 cents to $60.93 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract lost 71 cents, or 1.2%, to $61.28 on Monday. The global benchmark crude was trading at a premium of $7.78 to WTI for the same month.'

With Brent back to January/February prices, pre G's 2018 results, it's worth comparing the sp range at that time - which was from 175 up to 210, slightly better than we are seeing presently.
https://invst.ly/ayfm-

These notices would seem to indicate shares issued from treasury, presumably as part of remuneration or incentive schemes? Around 695,000 issued since I last made a note of the number issued, not that I track it very closely. Shares in treasury are currently given as 310,601, less than a third of what they were in November.

Here is G's exaggerated (?) fall on ex-div date.... it seems GKP's was also exaggerated (?). Hit by the same malevolent influence apparently (except GKP was not ex-div, so actually suffered rather more in relative terms)

https://invst.ly/aybgy

GKP has certainly had a good run since 7th May.

DNO and G pretty much the same.

https://invst.ly/ayb8t

Is that because GKP is simply being recognised as an income share rather than a growth share? With Shaikan they don't actually need to grow do they? I'm always wary of the comparison - two very different companies

For Monday 3rd June.

The LSE and the Oil Market have different operating hours, so it’s easy to forget that OP at today’s close was around $2 less than it was at G’s close last Friday. It’s significant in as much as that weekend drop could have knocked 6p off G. So, as it hasn't changed by much, G is marginally stronger against OP than it was through most of last week.

Other than that, no real change for G:

https://invst.ly/ay911

Or the others:

https://invst.ly/ay924

I think we should be careful about conflating ex-div with other sp movements, because it is a one-off specific discount.
It is legitimate to assign up to 8p of G’s drop on the 23rd (ie from the 22nd May close) to ex-div but any additional loss is due to other factors. If the 8p ex-div amount on the 23rd is deducted, G appears to have fallen by 8.6% since the close of 22nd May, ( ie from 201.5 - 8p = 192.5p to 176p today), whilst GKP has fallen by about 8.5%. DNO appears to have lost about 12.5% over the period. The ex-div discount unwinds over a period.

On that basis, G has not behaved much out of step with GKP and rather better than DNO https://invst.ly/ay8sd

Yes Ocelot, different articles pointing to KSA's increased production. It's a disaster if Trump softens (as he probably will) with Iran or their usual customers.

Is this why OP fell back so sharply - because of 'stability'?

https://tinyurl.com/y5nb8hgp
(Bloomberg) -- Saudi Arabia ramped up oil production last month by the most this year, largely filling the gap created by tougher U.S. sanctions on its political rival, Iran.
Iranian output plunged in May to the lowest since 1990 as the Trump administration threatened penalties for anyone trading with the Islamic Republic, according to a Bloomberg survey of officials, analysts and ship-tracking data.
Nonetheless, the production boost by Riyadh, along with increases in fellow OPEC members Libya and Iraq, meant that overall output from the group remained unchanged in May from the previous month. OPEC pumps about 40% of the world’s oil supplies.
Iran’s production plunged by 230,000 barrels a day to 2.32 million a day, according to the Bloomberg survey. Saudi Arabia increased by 170,000 barrels a day to 9.96 million a day. Total supply from OPEC’s 14 members was unchanged at 30.26 million barrels a day.
President Donald Trump is tightening the squeeze on Iran’s oil exports amid a dispute that revolves around the country’s nuclear program, and has turned to America’s allies in Riyadh to keep global crude markets comfortably supplied. The survey indicates that Saudi Arabia, a long-standing antagonist of Iran, has been willing to oblige.
That sets the stage for a contentious meeting when the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners gather in the coming weeks to consider production levels for the second half of the year. Iran has warned that the 59-year-old cartel is at risk of collapse because of aggressive moves by some members.
Despite the boost, the Saudis are still significantly below the limit of 10.3 million barrels a day agreed at the start of the year with a global coalition of producers, which spans fellow OPEC members as well as nations outside the group including Russia and Kazakhstan (continues)....

It doesn't look like that to me. In fact G was disappointingly falling towards ex-div, even though OP was still above $70.
No, although others also saw a slight lift there was something marked, and against the general trend, about GKP that day. Not a big deal in the grand scheme of things and I expect it will even out. It just made G's performance look even weaker than it really was. https://invst.ly/ay57e
As ex-div unwinds, G's sp (p) should get back up to 3x $bbl Brent as a minimum - eg 189p minimum at $63, with the 200+ range perfectly possible by recent standards..

Agreed, Hydrogen.

170 should be solid provided Brent stays in the $60s. Genel has actually strengthened against OP since last week's lows. The only mystery for me is GKP's rally of Thursday - which someone said was due to a share buy-back announcement, although that was later disputed and I can't fine any evidence of it. Although much of that rally has been given back, GKP has been relatively stronger than G and DNO since OP has dropped back from $75

Bunks/Ocelot

Thanks for the OANDA link - repeated below - useful comparison with the XBR and LCO data on Investing.com, especially as there seems to be a problem with the latter at the moment.
http://www.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/brent.php

Boyobach 165
Bunks 176
Leem1 178
Withoutt 181
Dodger777 184
Hawkey 199
Prime 200

Cheers Hawkey!

Well my punt at 197 was hardly 'wise words' was it? So I'll donate my winnings to charrridy if I may.

I thought G did well today under very harsh market circumstances which, with no de-ramping intended, could quite possibly get worse.

My wise words, FWTAW are: When things start to slide and look cheap, cash is the best option until you see things lift back off the floor.

We all know that OP could go lower, $50 Brent like last year may be gloomy but can’t be ruled out. So I was not reaching for my virtual chequebook to buy more today, that’s for sure. However 170 could be a base if Brent stays above $60. I have no doubt G will eventually sail back into the 200's but, as the plunge has happened about three months prematurely according to my plan, I'm not wholly optimistic about a swift recovery.

With many US LTO shale drillers feeling pain when WTI falls to $50 again, the US market should balance quite quickly. Although the US produces lots of oil it’s not necessarily in quantities of the type they need. Elsewhere the market is apparently fairly tight with Trump-induced trade problems being the main issue holding prices down. Trump’s antics are causing global aggravation and, consequently, the US ultimately risks being sidelined. China should come out of this a whole lot stronger, with Huawei, for example, now knowing that they cannot rely on US tech and so naturally spurred to develop their own. We’d probably all benefit if the US monopoly on technology got dismantled - it just needs one credible challenger. Remember IBM?

What a good time for us to be leaving an influential trading block when, by doing so, we strategically benefit significant rivals. Whatever the UK gains by leaving - and being in the EU is undoubtedly a pain in the rear - there are two states that will quickly fill the power vacuum we'll be handsomely paying to hand over. In future there could well be a new verb and F word: 'to farage things up'. If the Tories were smart they would co-opt him as Chief Negotiator, which would achieve kill and cure in five months flat.

Slight slip of the mouse - this chart re-posted as Brent prices misaligned on previous G v Brent chart:
https://invst.ly/axln5

For Friday 31st May (afternoon)

So OP down a bit more and the market now very tense and over-reacting - having seen last year’s decline and anticipating the worst. As a matter of interest, when OP passed this point on the way down, in November, G was quite happily north of 190. (see next chart). Today’s low was then only reached when OPfell to around $59. Today’s long ‘tail’ on the candlestick indicates a rejected attempt to go lower than the candle and hopefully that pattern will hold to the close- it should do although there’ll undoubtedly be a few who’ll sell voluntarily or through stop losses if they get squeezed enough. https://invst.ly/axl2m

Compared to other ‘risky’ oil Co’s, all highly dependent on the underlying OP, G is not behaving very differently and having a better time of it than some, say,PMO. There’s understandably much more nervousness around the small oilies then the likes of RDS. It’s all on oil now.

Compared since Peak OIl: https://invst.ly/axl3s
Compared since Peak DNO: https://invst.ly/axl0b Interesting that G faring better than DNO recently.

My thanks to Workover for alerting us - well me, at least - to the GKP share buyback announcement, which does provide a rational explanation for GKP storming ahead today. Any good news for one Kurdy Co is good for the others - although one has to assume that a fair bit of swapping takes place at certain times. Today may be no exception.
No DNO news today as Oslo market is closed, so the 'Kurdy' comparison from their recent peaks is just G, GKP and the outsider PMO. For those who are remotely interested, it does look as if Investing.Com are not using the correct 'front month' data for their LCO feed of Brent pricing. So I'm using XBR until that gets sorted. My charts of earlier in the week consequently showed a steeper fall 'on the day' in Brent than was the case. So this one addresses that problem:
https://invst.ly/ax918

The mixed messages about OP get explored more here - albeit without reference to direct political impacts -
https://uk.investing.com/analysis/3-key-market-drivers-to-watch-as-oil-demand-slows-but-supply-tightens-200208479

In case others here also use it, I've noticed a problem with the Investing.com feed of Brent Pricing, label LCO . Since the weekend, it appears to be wrong during the day although it gets corrected to match other Brent sources the following day.. This problem has unfortunately affected the last closing price for Brent on comparison charts I've posted this week.

Apologies if this has already been posted:

Trump’s U-Turn On Iran Policy Spells Big Trouble For Oil Bulls
By Investing.com

https://uk.investing.com/analysis/trumps-uturn-on-iran-policy-spells-big-trouble-for-oil-bulls-200208442

Investing.com

For Wednesday 29th May (mid afternoon)

Since late April, following $75 Brent and when G and DNO hit something of a peak, the Kurdy oil Co’s, together with PMO (which I include because of general interest here), have actually performed pretty much the same. If there’s evidence here of G being individually targeted, manipulated or sold off then please do point it out - I can’t see it myself.
https://invst.ly/awx8g
The market appears to have priced in some optimism which it didn’t see bearing fruit.
G’s own news flow has been ‘strong and stable’ - unfortunately that line doesn’t always inspire the confidence and positivity it should. G is consequently below par, even compared to its performance at the depths of the OP in December - where its worst sp/OP ratio was 2.8x. At today’s OP that would merit an sp of 188p, knock off the ex-div discount (which is apparently a controversial thing to do around here) and today’s sp is still a bit light. Added to which we are tight down on a serious support level to boot - always remembering how support levels become a magnet for an sp.
https://invst.ly/awx7d
Plainly a lot of nervous G holders may have jumped ship or had their stop losses triggered. Fair enough - it’s a risky oil-based business and that tends to be what happens, just look at DNO, GKP and PMO. Teeth gritting time, I guess.