Member Info for Boyobach

Hi Rangor

What about 'C'?

I don't think you read what I said, which was basically that 'B' was incomplete, a work in progress, and would it turn out like 'A' or would it continue upward - I guess your 'C'. The jury is still out. I hope JL bought at the right time.

It launched at a tenner. It isn't the same deal now - 7+ years of history, a few write downs, a backlog of payments and a few dusters - but you know all this from the d/d right?

Today was a good day for G - absolutely no doubt about that.
But long term holders need to remember that sp's do not follow a straight line. Brisk but solid progress is good and Elliott Waves.are a 'thing' that seem to describe crowd behaviour - although, for me, they are easiest read after the event.
I offer this picture of G's recent progress as an example. It remains to be seen if 'B' turns out something similar to 'A' - I believe it probably will.. https://invst.ly/a5vst Which will be good for anyone who wants to get on board.

For Thursday 28th February at close. (re-posted to correct time)

I covered this morning’s action earlier, so this is just a follow-up, with two charts to summarise:

Showing G v Brent (% based-no prices): https://invst.ly/a5seq
Same chart G only (shows prices): https://invst.ly/a5seh

G, not for the first time, appears to be flying without a licence - well ahead of Brent with no obvious reason. Many folks here will undoubtedly believe it’s due to recent news and long overdue, which could be correct - I frankly don’t know. The fact that it has not drawn back this afternoon and remains pressed at 217 resistance indicates a pretty strong upward attack.

If it retreats back to base level v Brent then the worst case should be the red line around 192 but more likely, in my view given today’s performance, would be 201-204 ie the prior support level. A brief pull back to just 210 would indicate to me that a more serious push upwards is imminent. If/when it advances then it first needs to overcome the resistance that it has just found, after which 227 appears to me to offer the next barrier.

The hourly chart shows just how rapid the rise was and how precarious relative to Brent this could be unless it is part of a fundamental change in value:
https://invst.ly/a5sdh

The rest: https://invst.ly/a5shc
Notice that G is now overtaking RDS on this chart - an essential step to re-establishing its position prior to the fall in OP.

For Thursday 28th February at 13.00

I covered this morning’s action earlier, so this is just a follow-up, with two charts to summarise:

Showing G v Brent (% based-no prices): https://invst.ly/a5seq
Same chart G only (shows prices): https://invst.ly/a5seh

G, not for the first time, appears to be flying without a licence - well ahead of Brent with no obvious reason. Many folks here will undoubtedly believe it’s due to recent news and long overdue, which could be correct - I frankly don’t know. The fact that it has not drawn back this afternoon and remains pressed at 217 resistance indicates a pretty strong upward attack.

If it retreats back to base level v Brent then the worst case should be the red line around 192 but more likely, in my view given today’s performance, would be 201-204 ie the prior support level. A brief pull back to just 210 would indicate to me that a more serious push upwards is imminent. If/when it advances then it first needs to overcome the resistance that it has just found, after which 227 appears to me to offer the next barrier.

The hourly chart shows just how rapid the rise was and how precarious relative to Brent this could be unless it is part of a fundamental change in value:
https://invst.ly/a5sdh

The rest: https://invst.ly/a5shc
Notice that G is now overtaking RDS on this chart - an essential step to re-establishing its position prior to the fall in OP.

For Thursday 28th February at 13.00

G suddenly on fire these last two days, with a nice sharp rise to my long-awaited tranche sell point at around 217. A very simple long-term chart for a neat scenario:
https://invst.ly/a5pgp

Now it will get interesting! G appears to be somewhat ahead of itself and certainly ahead of Brent (the latter’s approximate trajectory is the short green line). If G follows history and its relationship with Brent then we just might see a pull back to somewhere above my red line before any further advance - I’m estimating 203 in those circumstances. A word of caution here: G has not previously closed at levels above today’s without Brent at $70 or more, so if it continues upward then I think it might represent a more fundamental shift in G’s prospects and any pull-back could therefore be more limited.
https://invst.ly/a5pe5

For Wednesday 27th February

Having dismissed G’s sp as not very interesting yesterday, today’s price moves were much more fascinating even if the picture remains fundamentally unchanged. It culminated in G’s best closing price (just) for over three months.

This morning I pointed to G’s sudden, though not entirely unexpected, weakness in early trading. It seemed pretty evident that G was about to pull back to it’s natural ‘low’ vis a vis Brent, which it does on an almost cyclical basis. However, whilst it may do this when Brent is fairly flat, it does not usually do so ‘against the tide’ - ie if Brent is rising - which was the case this morning. There was also the positive RNS concerning Bilgin Group. So as Brent continued to recover from Monday’s glitch (supposedly induced by Trump’s silly tweet), it carried G to its best close of the week and of this year: https://invst.ly/a5do4

Will that be sufficient to overcome G’s ‘cyclic’ tendency to drop back? Well it’s looking good for the moment and, failing that, Brent still seems to be chasing upwards, with $67 back within grasp: https://invst.ly/a5dns

Apart from RDS, the others enjoyed a pretty good day too: https://invst.ly/a5dnk

RDS remains interesting - having made a few easy and relatively ‘safe’ bucks a few weeks ago I wasn’t expecting another chance to come along, will keep watching.

MTPH? Nice one.

Tiger: Brent now at 66.

Yes - that's what the chart showed at 11.07, and was really my point: ie, will G stop at 198 or continue down to meet Brent at some point - maybe at 192 or less?

For Wednesday morning 27th February

Today’s price action is worth commenting on because of G’s sudden, though not entirely unexpected, weakness. It’s very obvious that it could well be on one of its ‘drop back to Brent base level’ part of the cycle : https://invst.ly/a58q4
In which case 187-192 looks distinctly possible.
The question is whether it will continue to drop or merely hover here until Brent catches up.

By comparison, last month G was consistently above this morning’s price of 198 with Brent at $62 or less, so it is around 10p off those levels in comparative terms compared to OP. A marked drop, too, compared to the rest: https://invst.ly/a58qp

COO Higgs said that he'd like to see the company 'twice as big' in the Malcy i/v. I didn't take that to mean pumping existing reserves twice as fast., although this should generate cash to finance real growth - which to me either means acquisition or development of a non-producing part of the portfolio. The right acquisitions could be the least risky of those two options, especially if they improve diversity.

For Tuesday February 26th

With Brent now fairly well established above $60, there’s not much to see with G these days:
https://invst.ly/a52bf

A look at the hourly comparison chart with Brent: https://invst.ly/a52ly
shows that most of the price movements tend to be influenced by OP and it is the accumulated divergences from its ‘normal’ ratio to OP that are interesting and would indicate any underlying shifts in the company’s market value. Not that the market view has fundamentally changed since August or seems likely to in the immediate future, given the Petroleum Economist article which rather rules out any immediate prospect for development of gas assets and even suggests a potential write-down at Miran.

So, with OP in the mid $60s and little reason for a tangible uplift, the market seems to think that, for the time being, G is basically worth about £2 give or take 25p according to OP and sentiment. Not that it's seen more than 212 for three months but neither has Brent yet reached $70.

There seems little point in commenting further - certainly not daily - unless something significant occurs to change the underlying picture.

elcapitan was correct, Higgs was talking in the context of growth through acquisition or, failing that, considering a return to investors.

Osgood's article points to a likely Miran write-down announcement, probably in March. If G had as much cash as it has written down over the years it ( & I) might have been doing quite well by now.
FOMO on what? My investment in G has so far been a ticket to watch a vanishing act.

Yes COV, I agree -.he certainly messed it up for the Saudis. I was seeing it from his POV - whether he achieved what he wanted by accident or by intent I don't know. But you are right, I think, oil doesn't seem to be sustainable if WTI is below $50, Brent $60.

I don’t think he messed up the Iranian thing, COV: he did get the price down rapidly from $76 (WTI) and, in fact, it’s unlikely to return to that level in the foreseeable. Meanwhile the Saudis have supported OP sufficiently for US shale (LTO) to stay afloat and boost production, although to US voters they are the villains and Trump looks like the good guy because he brought OP down and OPEC pushed it back up. Venezuela presents a slight problem because it has huge reserves (bigger than KSA) and produces the type of oil US refiners are set up to use - home produced product is not necessarily the right stuff - but production has been crippled under the current President . The US naturally wants to be Venezuela’s best friend on account of the moral/humanitarian issues there - their oil has nothing to do with it I'm sure.

Take 2, with duff link corrected:

It’s fascinating how a market dealing in a globally essential physical product with quite slow demand/production/distribution/refining time curves can dip so theatrically to a faux-naive tweet from the absurd Mr T. Even he doesn’t act according to his tweets, which are primarily for home consumption, so why would KSA, Russia and pals even blink? He will quite possibly try to use the NOPEC tool - and it would be good to see that backfire. Meanwhile, US shale producers must be sooo grateful to OPEC for keeping them in business, despite the best efforts of POTUS. But make no mistake - there will almost certainly be a time for Brent to drop again to $60 or less although I don’t think it’s yet - sometime after April when there’s an R in the month perhaps..... https://tinyurl.com/y6jjsqdz
But on an upbeat note, the boys from Goldman's are always there to cheer us up: https://tinyurl.com/yyqusrpo

It’s fascinating how a market dealing in a globally essential physical product with quite slow demand/production/distribution/refining time curves can dip so theatrically to a faux-naive tweet from the absurd Mr T. Even he doesn’t act according to his tweets, which are primarily for home consumption, so why would KSA, Russia and pals even blink? He will quite possibly try to use the NOPEC tool - and it would be good to see that backfire. Meanwhile, US shale producers must be sooo grateful to OPEC for keeping them in business, despite the best efforts of POTUS. But make no mistake - there will almost certainly be a time for Brent to drop again to $60 or less although I don’t think it’s yet - sometime after April when there’s an R in the month perhaps.....https://tinyurl.com/y6jjsqdzBut on an upbeat note, the boys from Goldman's are always there to cheer us up:https://tinyurl.com/yyqusrpo

Yes Ocelot - so much human tragedy in Iraq and throughout the ME. An individual's story often stands in its own right and as a symbol of the entire futile waste. Thanks for the reminder.

For Monday February 25th

No worse a day than we should have expected. Brent was due to take a rest,
https://invst.ly/a4kxb
although $2 off in one day may have seemed a bit steep. I gather Trump has been tweeting? Yet to catch up with that but it's worth remembering that OP ultimately boils down to supply and demand - it's a real equation that might get temporarily distorted by a scare story but ultimately settles according to how much of the stuff is available to satisfy humankind's need to burn it. G had hit 210 in early trading and - guess what? - 2 x $1 off oil theoretically means 2x3p off G - so around 204 at the close was ‘on the nail’. So at least the Brent v G ‘thing’ was consistent.
https://invst.ly/a4kxf

Here are the rest: https://invst.ly/a4kxm , with G faring reasonably well out of the pack, although GKP up - timing I guess.

I do agree Hydrogen. I would - being a G holder so therefore inclined to an optimistic view. I think the squiggly lines indicate there must be some latent potential that hasn't been realised yet - as COV points out.
In the meantime, I like my investments to earn their keep rather than sit around waiting for the bigger push, so will make the odd £200 or more 'on the side' whenever a low risk opportunity presents itself - not too hard with G recently - and a few of those can quickly add up . I don't need to watch a screen - set the limit orders and check what got caught in the net at the end of each day.