Member Info for Boyobach

For Friday 15th February 2019

Brent ends the week near $65.9 and attempting to break yet higher. Here’s a longer view, going back to Peak OP in October: https://invst.ly/a1sds

As a guide, based on OP and recent form in relation to it, G might be expected to be anywhere between 189 (weak) and 228 (strong) - with 208 about mid-range. On that scale, 202 is fair but not quite average. 203 seems to be the resistance line to beat:
https://invst.ly/a1se8

But even if it isn’t as strong as it has been, G has performed well compared to the others this week: https://invst.ly/a1shh

For Thursday 14th February 2019

Not a bad day - exceptional by recent standards for G. OP doing better than expected and breaking through the trend and not turning back at the red line I indicated yesterday. Even more promising, returning to kiss the line and head back up - so a more sustained rise towards $66 becomes the next possibility:
https://invst.ly/a1etr

G also breaking through a recent potential barrier at around 195. Let’s hope it now stays above it:
https://invst.ly/a1ett

Finally after a couple of weeks in the wilderness, G is the best of the bunch:
https://invst.ly/a1etv

Whether due to OP, the Higgs interview, market technicalities or something else I cannot say and, at this stage, don’t really care. G was due a revival and let’s hope it continues.

Excellent stuff, although I note in the wrap-up seconds he says, in the context of being 'selective about opportunities' that 'if the returns aren't there then being willing to return cash to shareholders'. I don't read that as being indicative of any cash for investors in the hear future - the emphasis seems to be on using our money for growth opportunities.

Doubleheadedcoin 'That's not correct etc'

We are effectively agreed about the same thing so I'm not sure what I was incorrect about - OP is back at a rising trend line, and I pointed out that previously it has turned back down on reaching it. In that circumstance OP could drop back by a couple of dollars. Seemed worth noting as it could temporarily knock about 6p of G - IF it happens.
https://invst.ly/a12y1

For Wednesday 13th February 2019

The most (only) interesting stuff in today's G/Brent thread is earlier and much appreciated. Thanks to all, particularly Hydrogen and FoodforThought. I’ve just logged in and found a lot to read! so if you’ve missed Hydrogen’s thoughtful and thought provoking two-parter then scroll down the list also a link to Bill Higgs’ interview with Malcy only published on YouTube today, and posted by FoodForThought. Excellent stuff

The only interesting thing chartwise here has been that Brent got very close to $64 which is a likely cue for it to turn and march back down to $61.5 ish. If it carries on through the red line here then it’s breaking with its recent pattern:
https://invst.ly/a10n-

All of which is more critical for G than we’d like - as G is as close to Brent as it has been since OP reached its peak in October. To demonstrate this, the next chart is an hourly comparison for G and Brent, quite difficult to ‘sync up’ after four months but here’s my effort. Where Brent and G are coincident on this chart then they have dropped by the same percentage (give or take) since Peak Oil - in other words, where this happens G’s sp has not improved relative to OP since October 3rd:
https://invst.ly/a10oi

Which just confirms what most here have been saying, ie that all G’s recent news, cash accumulation etc have been totally ignored by the market. In truth, G hasn’t moved significantly forward sp wise since late April last year when $74 OP produced an sp of 214p. Or, doing the ratio to today, $63 OP would have produced an sp of 182p….

And on that sobering note, here are the others: https://invst.ly/a10qo

Hydrogen - yes, it's deeply frustrating.

I gather you've been in/out of G over the years too?

My problem - and it is a deep rooted problem - is that Mr Wayward and Co presented a strong case for G at the time of the RTO and for a year or two following. In my naivety I failed to realise how little skin they actually had in the game once certain payments were made. This was entirely legal but nevertheless buried in the detail for any who accepted the Genel-Vallares RTO at face value. Once the prospect of their sp and listing related bonuses disappeared, along with KRG payments and Taq Taq reserves (which would have easily funded gas development), the wealthy and very astute 'names' took their exit. OK - smart guys, dumb investors. Now the problem - gas still of value, but company may now be too weak to develop it. This is not quite like the GKP disaster for shareholders but, hey, some of us have actually lost up to 80% here! Two immediate questions arise:
Is the resource genuinely there? and
Are we going to be shafted (again) in order to develop it?
So far the company and KRG appear to be on the level, acting ethically etc etc. This is encouraging but lets not pretend we are in blue-chip world.

Yes - COV, I'd sincerely thought 225 would be on the radar by now but G is so weak with respect to oil price (the ratio of sp to OP is near the lowest I've seen). My little spreadsheet tells me 225 would be 'in range' if OP gets to $65 BUT G needs to be performing much better than today - when an OP of $65 would theoretically only produce an sp of 190. Still things should improve for OP as US refineries come out of maintenance and driving seasons approach etc.etc.
GL with this and PFC - where I'm hoping that history repeats in a good way. Look out for possible brief dips there to 345.

For Tuesday 12th February 2019

At least G got off its backside this morning, and actually made it to 189 - a creditable rise albeit with a gentle shove from OP. Before I get too glowing about it, let’s have a look at the ‘nasty’ chart again, where we can see that G isn’t out of the woods or far from the rocks or whatever other metaphor I can hijack:
https://invst.ly/a0ma8
To be fair, G will probably have to make it to 212 (and I’m sure it eventually will) before the nasty chart can be consigned to the recycle bin in the cloud. I don’t intend to produce it every day, just now and again if we seem to need a reality check.

Oil, meanwhile was storming (ok, strolling) up past $63, which I’d suggested it might in an earlier post. https://invst.ly/a0md7

However, given G’s recent weakness v Brent, my spreadsheet thought G might still only close at 185 out of a computed max of 217. In the end G managed a rather feeble 183 bearing in mind that the computed floor has now inched up from 177 to 180 with OP at $63. That’s certainly better than 172-175 and so, hopefully, neither Justin nor I will be FC (UK) winners this week unless OP throws a spanner at us all. G’s daily chart v Brent looks a tiny bit healthier today: https://invst.ly/a0m9w
But the long upward ‘wick’ on today's candlestick betrays a lack of upward motivation. In truth I’m not expecting fireworks from G anytime soon but I think 197-212 would be a more realistic range given the current OP and global uncertainties etc. 177 was perilously low in my view but an obvious, if risky, ‘buy’ point.

All the riders are up today, with DNO now at a higher sp than when OP was $86 - now that IS impressive! I also wish I’d held onto my RDS for a few more days but I needed the cash to take a punt on PFC, to which I added more today. I like stocks that offer the prospect of a capital gain and also pay a divi - why on earth do I bother with G?
https://invst.ly/a0mbm

Those numbers look exactly right to me bunks.
197 asap would be a very good sign and test that 'new' barrier I mentioned. Coincidentally, I reckon 196 is mid-range for G in relation to $62 OP (with yesterday's 177 right on the bottom edge). I'd hope to see it well up into the 200s before the market pushes it back - although I see others think it'll happen sooner. GL

Yes - I generally agree with your comments Hydrogen, although the chart only reflects what has actually happened - there’s no emotion in it. The chart message is simple - if things continue as they are then there could be a problem. G needed assistance from a strengthening OP - which it has got today

We now know G’s floor is 177 for $62 OP. At this OP we could expect to see G anywhere between 177 and 214, with 196 at the centre of that range. Fortunately today G is getting back towards that area.

The low 180s were a nice buying opportunity, as you say, and I’m happy to have done so.

Interesting to see the way OP is currently making progress in a repeating pattern of steps and pull-backs, as shown here. Hopefully $63+ again soon. The way the pull-back trend lines appear to link to $86 is probably coincidental.
https://invst.ly/a0gp9

Hi bunks.

I’m just a lighthouse - there are rocks. Sail close to them if you like. The siren song of cheerful folks is pleasant but I’m really only interested in what the market thinks and making sure I don’t get stung with G like before.

G is really not doing well and has taken a bad turn in the last few days, especially since 5th Feb It seemed only fair to point this out. At 172- 174 I’ll still probably add in order to trade because the odds are that the price will go back up - like the four or five times previously since October 3rd. Risky though.

For Monday 11th February 2019

I know there’s been a lot of positive comment here about G today and over the weekend but from an investment standpoint things are not good are they? I was surprised this morning that some folks could not understand why there was lack of enthusiasm for G but I would certainly not have been a buyer or a seller today. One look at this ‘no frills’ hourly picture going back to the summer should make it obvious why G is not particularly attractive at the moment:
https://invst.ly/a09b6

It is undeniably going down at present and Friday was bad because it continued G’s decline from 21st January instead of underpinning the base that was forming at 181. This continuing fall potentially places it in a newly defined and long downtrend from which it must now escape. Here’s a closer ‘daily’ view of the situation, with Brent positioned as it appears in the ‘from Peak OP’ chart: https://invst.ly/a09uz

Where, a week ago, G should have formed a ‘base’ at the 181 line and started an upward recovery - potentially mirroring the autumn downward path - it got knocked back near 197p on Feb 5th instead of continuing up through that newly formed red limit line. On its second ‘disastrous’ visit to 181, last Friday, it fared even worse and fell through to a lower support at 176. It may well bounce upwards from here - as it has done several times before when it’s ended up at both a major low AND level with ‘Brent from Peak’. The question is - and probably the reason why buyers have held back - Are G and Brent about to fall further? If OP weakens then anything is possible and, although 176 may hold, 172/173 is where G found support on the way down last year.
Here are the rest, viewed on the trusty old ‘Peak OP’ chart, where G and GKP are plainly ‘back in sync’ and back to square one with ‘Brent from Peak’:
https://invst.ly/a09an

G only going one way for now:
https://invst.ly/a02q4

Ha! Yeah - Justin beat me to 172 as it happens. G took a very serious turn for the worse in my view last week: after touching 196 it dropped 16p with no overall fall in Brent. G ‘should’ have bottomed out around 181 at the very worst but it didn’t - it carried on down. In the meantime, Brent has looked a bit wobbly intraday. I mentally flipped a coin and decided that OP may well be about to go down further, taking G with it for a while. I’m planning to add at the right point in those circumstances - the Friday Club guess was off the back of those thoughts and calculations.

The Friday Club thing does focus the mind a bit, although anticipating where an sp might reach support or resistance is more useful than estimating what value it’ll be at a given point in time. The first can be used to make a profit but the second doesn’t help in the slightest.

Now that G appears to be back in alignment with OP (from Peak OP, Oct 3rd) then, on past behaviour, it has tended to do one of two things: either bounce back up fairly smartly or tightly follow OP down if OP heads south. Caution suggests I allow for the latter.

Whilst adding at around 182 I was careful not to throw too much in - I never chuck it all in, always allowing for a second or third bite at the cherry.At that stage I had 172 in mind as possible - and I see Justin D is thinking something similar. I’m also thinking that Brent could possibly slip to $60 and my handy spreadsheet (which pays no attention to support/resistance levels) also tells me that 172 looks like a likely minimum at that OP.

Either way, there’ve been at least three occasions when at least 25-30p was to be made on G’s volatility around the OP, so any I accumulate during this ‘hunter gatherer’ phase are destined to be recycled asap rather than tucked away. Fortunately, I've got some cash from the recent RDS recovery to play with.

JustinD 172
Boyobach 175
broadland 180
Klassic 185
bunks 187
Stockbuster 190
PostieRemy 195
Rangor 199
Hasiba 202
Digby04 206
ocelot 210
foodforthought 213
withoutt 215
mark888man 225
Hydrogen 340

tiger100 ?
Doubleheadedcoin?

For Friday 8th February 2019

Those of a nervous disposition should not read this.

Continued weakness for G today and a nasty lurch below the 180p support line changes the picture and makes revisiting the low 170’s a possibility, as I warned earlier today. Note that Brent at $61.45 has previously been matched with a G sp of only 172p! It seems the old ‘from Peak’ chart was giving the correct picture about G moving ahead of OP and the potential risks: https://invst.ly/9-hb9

Given the lack of any other buying stimulus, it’s all back to dependence on OP now, because the New Year boost of 30p from 155 to 184 - which was not really linked to OP - appears to have been completely wiped out over the last three weeks. A quick look at the shaded area in the ‘from Peak OP’ chart shows how G’s swift advance ahead of OP immediately after Xmas has been eroded recently whilst Brent has remained fairly flat at around $61. It seems my previous comments about a pull-back were not as overly pessimistic as I thought.

On a positive note, if you are considering buying or selling G, then it’s probably worth studying the above chart and noting which way the sp is likely to move when a) it is closely aligned with Brent and b) when it moves too far from Brent. There appear to be distinct parts of the cycle to sell and others to buy.

So, as mentioned in a response to bunks earlier, I’ve revised the ‘from minimum’ comparison chart so that it’s now zeroed from minimum G of 20/12/18 rather than minimum OP of 24/12/18. It effectively matches the shaded area in the ‘from peak’ chart and the change of ‘zero’ point has the effect of bringing the Brent line down to near G’s present level and, hopefully, more accurately reflecting the present relationship. https://invst.ly/9-hc6

I'd be careful about the 'catching up with OP' thing, bunks.
Truth is it is very subjective and the market mood can turn 'catch up' to 'fall faster' very quickly.
I've just posted the chart from Peak oil, Oct 3 - by that reckoning G is back in sync with OP and could easily slip to 172.
The other chart I've recently posted 'from minimum oil' has painted a slightly different picture.
https://invst.ly/9-esi

If you look at it closely (as I have today) you'll see that G hit it's minimum after OP did. I think that had a lot to do with market timings over Christmas. Also G zoomed up sharply at that stage - giving, perhaps, a false sense of recovery against OP. It's apparent that, by today the 25p or whatever it was sudden gain has been wiped out - so we are back to the old relationship of the 'peak oil' chart.
Here's the chart from 'minimum G' - rather than 'mimimum OP'
https://invst.ly/9-eu8
It is only shifted by one day but agrees more closely with the older 'from peak' and indicates that G and Brent are pretty much back in the relationship they had throughout the fall from Peak Oil.

The only reassuring thing about all this is that G has made progress in the business (recent RNS and TU) so there are reasons to think that by returning to the sp to Brent ratio of the autumn, the market is genuinely undervaluing G.

Time to brace ourselves for 172, now a distinct possibility from a direct read off the G v Peak Oil chart for Dec 13th (when OP closed at $61.45 and G closed at 172.40p).
https://invst.ly/9-efl