Member Info for Boyobach

Hypothetical question...

Correct bunks.
The more straightforward maths for me is this: If G had tracked the OP precisely this week then we should be at 198.2p now (it's up 4.3% according to a current invest.com chart). So we are 6p (3%) down on where we might have expected to be.
This is because we appear to have also lost the 'non OP' element of yesterday's rise to 209p - another 6p. Somewhere along the line between yesterday and today the sp first made about 6p above the OP gain then lost 12p in addition to the OP drop today. So ignoring the effect of the OP, G just lost 6p in two days. ..... I think!

Observation:
Genel’s divergence in sp from the others has been increasing negatively since the summer - specifically from August 13th. Every time there’s a sign of correction the price gets pulled back onto this negative path - like today. Genel is 25% to 30% down on it’s peers. There seems to be no logical explanation for this, bearing in mind the others are collectively influenced by OP to a similar extent.

https://invst.ly/9f48q

Update: even as I'm posting the summary, G loses another 2p. Definitely the runt of the litter today!

https://invst.ly/9f3dt

For Tuesday 4th December

The week so far: https://invst.ly/9f2vr
A game of two halves, as they say, although the first half was actually over in less than an hour, whilst the second half lasted the remainder of the day! It looks like profit takers were out in force from the get-go, unless there was some G-specific thing I’m unaware of, because the OP played no part in the first 45 minutes of G’s morning action. There was, of course, a small 2p gap from 194.2 to be filled, which eventually happened in the afternoon. By 10am G was moving back in sync with Brent and the other Kurdy Co’s but now at the bottom of the pack, where it remained ultimately giving back three times as much as the others in percentage terms.

Unfortunately, it all conformed to the possible outcomes of G’s daily chart, which is oddly satisfying but highly irritating at the same time. It may be over-complicated when summarised in words - but plain as a pikestaff if you look at the chart :
G’s Chart: https://invst.ly/9f2vi

The green trend was validated as a strong influence and the broken purple line is looking a good deal more problematic than I’d begun to think. Remember that G has never successfully crossed it, so it could be a big deal if/when it does. And that particular crunch is not far off as the gap ‘twixt rock and a hard place tightens up.

The only glimmer of light faded when the price dropped through the blue trend line at 197: it would have been good if it had held but the gap closure made sure it wasn’t to be.

After today the outlook is gloomier than it was: 212 any time this month could clearly prove elusive but would be a very positive sign, 220 would be reason to be not just cheerful but positively ecstatic!

For Monday 3rd December

This week’s action so far: https://invst.ly/9ene0

With Brent up around $3 this morning cf Friday’s market close, there was an understandable reaction in the oil co’s opening prices: around 8p might have been expected for G (3 x 2.8p) but there was an initial surge up by around 12p from Friday’s close - good money if you can catch it !

G Latest (to year end, daily ticks): https://invst.ly/9enef

So G has made progress: moving onto the next blue upward trend then held up for a couple of hours at the next green before breaking through that. The nearby broken purple line represents a potential resistance because, other than spikes up to 'green', the sp has never conquered it. It has pushed G back today, however, as it merely joins points where the price has been turned back at ‘green’ trend lines, maybe it will prove to be just an indicator rather than a major obstacle in its own right. Although the blue lines are rising trends and green are falling, they all represent points of resistance going up and support coming back down. The greens have obviously tended to dominate since G peaked in May.

We have seen justified optimism here in light of G20 and the lead up to OPEC+ in Vienna, but a word of caution: Last time OPEC+ announced a cut two years ago the OP did go up by $8 to just around $54 in three days. However, within seven months it had dropped back as low as $44 before crawling back to $60 over a further 4 months. Here’s a three year snapshot of OP for the album: https://www.tradingview.com/x/LzIxt2gK/ . As I said in an earlier post: with Russia & KSA trying to discourage US shale whilst maintaining market share for themselves and avoiding deep cuts, there will be a lid on the price. But, whatever they do, US shale looks set to increase dramatically next year as the infrastructure improves, so G will need to thrive in a low ($50-$70 rather than $60-$80) price environment.

boyobach 199
withoutt 210
Hawkey 225

Hawkey 225
withoutt 210
boybach 199

For Friday 30th November

(posted before the close - it is Friday after all!)

Yesterday I mentioned that the Kurdy oil co’s had made progress against the headwind of Brent, at that stage Brent was up 2% on last Friday’s close, DNO were +12% and G & GKP were both in the region of +10%.
Today has seen those gains hold up pretty well despite a fall back in OP to last Friday’s level, whilst news of a likely OPEC+ cut is firming up ahead of next week’s meeting.

This week: https://invst.ly/9drfb

Since June: https://invst.ly/9drfe

Notice how G has remained around 20% down on the price it commanded up to the H1 results. If the end of year puts that right then there’s potentially an immediate 25% gain to be had, bringing the sp closer to 240 (at $60 OP) or 265 (at $70).

G chart update: https://invst.ly/9drff

The mid-180’s - around 184 - always looked like a potential support area and 174 has proved itself to be next in line after that if the OP declines further. I also know 166 has been mooted as inevitable on this board but I only expect it to be tested if the OP (I always mean Brent btw) drops much nearer to $50 - a $10 drop would, in theory, knock around 25p off today’s price irrespective of market technicalities. Even as a sceptic about the basis for their application to markets, I have to accept that Fibonacci ratios are important if only because the herd uses them. However, I also think that any movements in OP trump them when it comes to oil co’s.

Any reason for expecting News Bacchusll ?

Yes, there've been reports for some time that KSA has a much reduced 'spare capacity'.

Then there's this:

Russia has started to concede that it needs to join a fresh Saudi-led oil production cut, but is still bargaining with its key partner in OPEC over how much, how fast, and for how long it would potentially reduce its oil output, Reuters reported on Thursday, citing two industry sources.
https://tinyurl.com/y88666dc

For Thursday 29th November

It’s not been a bad week for the Kurdy oil co’s so far, bearing in mind the headwind of OP. They’ve all made headway, DNO in particular, as the week’s chart shows

From last Friday’s close: https://invst.ly/9dbz5

To put that into context, we can see that G is slowly closing the gap between it and Brent that opened up in the late summer and ironically reached its widest as the OP peaked.

From early June onwards, daily ticks: https://invst.ly/9dbzx

The longer term view also shows that, while G does tend to drop about 2.8p per $1 fall in Brent, this maybe just an immediate response that seems to get clawed back over subsequent days, so the longer term effect appears to be more like 2.2p

As far a G is concerned, it has managed to stay above the ‘green’ line today despite Brent slipping below $60 again. It seems resilient enough for me to pencil-in a tentative support trend (dotted) and tighten up on my estimation of the price track. For now, this is just an indicator to show if there is any tendency up or down.

G to year end, daily ticks: https://invst.ly/9db-j

Yes dodgepot - some of us have been waiting seven years for it!

Meanwhile the oil gets drilled and not immediately paid for, or turns to water or never existed (eg Malta).....

There's Brent crude and WTI crude and a few others but Brent tends to be the global one with WTI mainly for US pricing.

Interesting today that G and GKP dropped back (G validating the 2.8p sp drop per $1 Brent ratio) but DNO not reacting so far. Also G and GKP holding on to yesterday's 'non oil related' gain of about 5p....

Yes - cheers bunks. I was probably reading too much into it - just very striking at the time.

That DNO thing was old news - sorry! Can't figure out the spike...

For Wednesday 28th November

Yes bunks! Who would have thought a month ago that I’d think 191 was good?
So much for charts and my plans to trade somewhere above 230….
Anyway - a few more days in a similar direction please.
I just hope we open above the green line and don’t go back below it - it’s not a very ambitious target as the line does happen to be going downwards but at least not as fast and it’s a necessary first step on the path upwards.

From Friday’s close: https://invst.ly/9cwp1

G to year end, daily ticks: https://invst.ly/9cwv1

Was the DNO spike due to yesterday’s news that:
'DNO hits Peshkabir milestone'
Output hits 50,000 bpd ahead of schedule
Norwegian operator DNO has hit a production milestone at its Peshkabir field in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq ahead of schedule and under budget. DNO revealed Tuesday….

...a bit this morning. No idea why.....

Yes - A promising start today with healthy volume too. If it closes over 188 today I'll be happy.

G’s sp is now about 30p above levels seen in September 2017, when oil was at $52 and before the KRI Referendum damaged the sp. My rule of thumb guide that each $1 drop in OP leads to a 2.8p drop in sp would suggest a 25p fall from today’s price if oil dropped to that level - so we have apparently seen only a 5p net gain in sp over the year if OP variation is ignored. My question is this: Does 5p on the sp adequately reflect the improvement in the company’s cash position, the increase in production and all the other things on Hawkey’s ‘cheerful’ list ?

Typo by me: As we’ve seen a $5 (not 5p) drop in OP can result in a 10p drop in G ...

More accurately, a $5 drop appears to result in a 14p drop in sp.

On which point, we really should all be prepared for the possibility of Brent going to $50