Member Info for Boyobach

I suggest everyone relaxes and takes a break from watching the screen.

Even it drops to 220, which would puncture my neat pitchfork, the price is still within the +/- 20p track it's been following since mid August. If you need a conspiracy theory then maybe '5 red candles' is a thing (I don't happen to think so - chart refers). And wouldn't MMs take advantage of a wider market trend if it suits?

I did put a small amount of money where my chart is today. No fool like an old one...

https://invst.ly/8t4qh

Hi Hawkey.

As you can tell, I'm in a sceptical frame of mind. I hope you are proved correct
ATB

So could Taq Taq be the Biggest Fish........?

I'd be wary of getting hooked by a 'story' - a supposedly promising development or an enticing line of thought.

I take the 'safer' view that Taq Taq is a busted flush - and have done for best part of three years since it became apparent that serious levels of production started to decline in 2015. Mind you, it would be really convenient if it suddenly regained its prior status just as PoO is looking fairly strong again. In Feb 2016 Genel’s shares fell 42 per cent in a day (causing a nice big gap that did appear to fill over a few months) after it announced there was only a third of the oil left in Taq Taq leading to a $1bn writedown. It took another hit just a few weeks later in March, I believe. Didn't someone recently refer to it as a 'puddle'? Quite appropriate as they often contain a fair percentage of water.

Currently I think Gas is the only real redemption path for G.

Some good chats at the end of the week. I especially liked the ‘gap filling’ chat. Always best when they get filled within a week or two rather than lurking around as a trap.
G’s story is understandably littered with them. November - December 2014 is an instructional period if you want to know what an ‘exhaustion’ gap looks like. Very useful to recognise these with a share like G, that many are waiting to rocket.

Gaps don’t always get filled quite as you expect, like the pair that caught me out in August 15, with the coup de gras delivered in October, somewhat after I stupidly supposed the respective fills to have happened. Had I just looked at the trend line I’d have known all was not well. That was my lowest point with G, in days when I naively gave insufficient attention to charts and consequently paid the price.

I recall finding this clip a helpful recap on gap types, with ‘exhaustion’ well worth noting (around 6:20) :
https://youtu.be/2TO-r3KlAec

Cashless: 'Contrary to what was mentioned on here, Genel does get the increased price of oil, less certain discounts'

I don't recall anyone saying anything other than that. Hope I wasn't misinterpreted.

The KRG sells oil at a discount for a number of reasons.

As I won't be available to contribute later, please put me down for 257.
Let's hope the Trading & Ops Update has a better impact than I'm suggesting.
GLA

Making sense of the equations, where:

$15 increase in x occurs with 0% change in y
$0.5 drop in x occurs with -2% change in y

Possible conclusions:
a) It’s a conspiracy and the world is to blame.
b) Variables x and y are not exclusively and directly linked.
c) Maybe there are other factors and variables.

OK, hint, answers b and c are the same and there’s one wrong answer

Bunks: 'I’d say not just reassurance we’re doing what we said, feels like we need something more - I don’t see it coming to fruition just yet

Yes Bunks - I totally agree with that, although I'm hoping that the hard numbers (remember we are not getting monthly payment news now and don't know current production levels) will give us a boost. Like you, I'm not expecting anything dramatic - but I'd certainly welcome it.

Yes - I do say that, no buts either.

Selective numbers mislead: Genel spiked (for less than a day) at £3 when Brent was at about $74, having dropped from $78. The sp was more typically at around 270 during that period. Obviously I sold when it spiked- but that’s another story.
So the sp today is down around 9% on what the market subsequently judged was a high price. It could easily have stayed lower, it briefly went to 216, but maybe the long-term view of the oil price has mitigated the drop. The oil price is pretty fickle - it’s best that the sp isn’t too reactive to it on a daily basis.

Very useful number - thanks.

The day to day oil price should not have a marked impact on Genel's value for a whole host of reasons. The average price over a long period is a different matter. What you really need to know is what the KRG are currently selling oil at, ie what is their discounted rate and how much of today's production has already been sold at an even lower price.

Any Brent increase will not pass through undiluted and will also take a while to feed through to Genel.

Yes - it's like a spring, maybe not coiled exactly.

Although Genel’s sp has been erratic and only loosely connected to POO, there is a discernible settling pattern between ‘events’- rather as a spring will oscillate as it finds a new steady state. As I’ve suggested already, G seems to be currently settling into a price range broadly around 250. This is very clear from the attached simplified view., where you can either interpret the price as currently tending to a fixed mean value (like 250) or a slowly changing value (a trend). It’ll then weave either side until the market makes a step move for some reason. Following these ‘events’ the price will overshoot and then re-settle, like it did after it overshot in May following a few months of significant re-pricing.

The recent issue for G’s sp was the fact that something caused a further ‘correction’ in mid August. I’ve assumed that actually the market was not as impressed with the half-year report as it expected to be.

As I’ve said before, the market knows pretty much all it needs to know about G’s prospects until something new comes along or until it sees cash value that causes a re-evaluation. It won’t take too much on trust and promises. Until then the price is likely to meander around the middle of the trend unless a big buyer or seller enters the scene, causing an ‘event’.

Continuing the ‘spring’ analogy, which is very evident for those who care to look at the picture, the big question is what will deflect it next? Will it be the Trading and Ops Update? Will the update reveal something unexpected or, more realistically, provide sufficient reassurance about previous promises (guidance) that it is delivering results that can be banked? This is what the market needs.

https://invst.ly/8sbl1

I think the world was focused on ISIS, comeonvog, but the market wasn't too concerned about them as they rampaged in 2014/5. The main issues for the sp were collapsing Oil price, worries about KRG exporting against Baghdad's wishes and non-payment by the KRG (which actually started before ISIS were a thing).

G hit its low in March 2017, by which time ISIS was in retreat, so the sp should have been recovering according to that argument. However, it was plumbing new depths. It’s not hard to see why: the politics of the region were starting to focus on the post-ISIS era, which were to prove much more uncertain (disastrous) for the KRI.

One thing is for sure, post the ill-judged referendum (long after the departure of ISIS) Genel’s SP swiftly dropped from 160 to about 90p, and, as 270p is within today’s trading range, I can safely say that the sp has just about tripled since then - when ISIS was not a factor. I think Mr Market has decided that that is quite high enough until it sees the colour of G s cash revenues and something more than words and FDP’s on the fine prospects the company keeps talking about.

My target for G remains £4. I think it’s realistic but I think it will take a year based on past form and current price performance. As Hydrogen says, it doesn't follow predictable patterns - which is the one thing we can expect.

In the meantime, I’ll trade a proportion of my holding as much as possible.

Remember the little problem with isis ?

ISIS was never a direct threat to Genel and by March '17 they were losing ground and about to be ousted from Mosul. But the inability of KRG to pay during the conflict certainly had been a problem. That has since been addressed through the recovery of receivables agreement, reached just over a year ago, which contributes significantly to today’s cashflow.

That’s fine whilst there’s still oil in the ground and the agreement is honoured.

Would anybody know what our production was in Aug 2015 when we had an SP of 397p when POO was around $54?

Around 85k bopd ?

That must have been a good day for the sp that month, I recall seeing around 280 at one point as the sp roller-coasted down as the disastrous downgrades and production decline at Taq Taq took their toll.

Drawing a comparison between today's sp to when Taq Taq was in full flow and assumed to be a world class resource is not going to be helpful. Genel is a different prospect to the company that Tony H and Nat launched seven years ago - which is why they are not around, of course.

Hi Hydrogen: Genl doesn't really follow predictable patterns...

You are certainly right about that, hence many of the comments on this board.
The fact is that although Genel has many positive features it has massively disappointed many investors since 2011 and is only recently showing some signs of redeeming itself. Some of the setbacks could possibly be attributed to 'bad luck' but the market doesn't really care too much about that. Four years ago, when the sp was around £9-£10 the 'gas' was the jewel in the crown. There is still no immediate prospect of it, apparently.

So the company simply does not appear to inspire sufficient confidence in investors for the sp to be other than it is: erratic.This is natural when exciting news tends to be followed by more muted results or guidance.

GENL will be getting a far more bang for it's buck than last year.....

Yep, which the market already knows having roughly doubled the sp since Jan 1, and quadrupled it since March '17.

Whether POO is destined to stay up remains debatable - there seems a fair amount of uncertainty. Meanwhile, KRI oil sells at a discount and, I believe, some may have been paid in advance (ie a KRG debt swap of some sort). So quite where this leaves G's revenue per barrel in relation to Brent is unclear to me. I guess the market wants to see hard numbers before any further uplift in sp.

Sorry about that - is anyone else experiencing problems with LSE website?

LSE is often slow/unobtainable for me, although all others are fine, with the consequent indication that a post hasn't been uploaded because LSE did not respond..

With today's retreat and Monday's bounce quickly running out of steam, despite Oil remaining up and the market generally looking a bit firmer than yesterday, G seems to be signalling that the sp belongs around 250 and the prospect of any return to consistent 270+ could easily be a month away, with 290+ rather more distant.
Will next week's Update change the picture sufficiently for the market to react? I somehow doubt it. Given the market's reaction in the week following the half-year presentation and the Pareto conference last month, it's clear that, once digested, they did not impress. Hopefully, though, holders won't lose 50p this time!

FWIW, here's a link to the chart that these steady but unspectacular expectations are based upon.
https://invst.ly/8s0uk

With today's retreat and Monday's bounce quickly running out of steam, despite Oil remaining up and the market generally looking a bit firmer than yesterday, G seems to be signalling that the price belongs around 250 and the prospect of any return to consistent 270+ could easily be a month away, with 290+ rather more distant.
Will next week's Update change the picture sufficiently for the market to react? I somehow doubt it. Given the market's reaction in the week following the half-year presentation it's clear that, once digested, it did not impress. Hopefully, though, we won't lose another 60p!

FWIW, here's a link to the chart that these expectations, which are basically steady but unspectacular, are based upon.
https://invst.ly/8s0uk